Crucial war of votes: Congress's moment of truth

This means Ms Gandhi is finally listening to the alarm signals from the Congress's latest election debacle. This marks a welcome break from the prevailing party line, which said coalition politics is essential, but the coalition must be under Ms Gandhi's leadership!

Yet, this isn't even remotely a remedy for the Congress' ills. The party faces its worst-ever crisis in 118 years. It's in long-term decline. The decline's present phase may well be terminal.

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The Congress's crisis is structural. Its social base has been rapidly shrinking. Originally, the base consisted of savarnas, combined with the "core minorities" (Muslims, Dalits and Adivasis). But when new groups like OBCs emerged, the Congress couldn't relate to them.

Soon, Dalits in northern India started deserting it. In the 1990s, the Muslims felt betrayed by it. Mr Narasimha Rao watched passively as the sangh parivar demolished the Babri mosque. Most savarnas too deserted the Congress for the more "authentically Hindu" BJP.

By the 1990s, the only strata which backed the Congress steadily were the Adivasis, the urban poor and a few assorted castes. The latest elections suggest that the Adivasis are moving away from the party--crucially, in India's central tribal belt.

The Congress could now lose steady links with any large social group and also its "umbrella" character in attracting diverse social groups and balancing their interests.

If more groups leave, the Congress won't generate the critical mass necessary to survive as a major national party. If it loses the next elections, it could disintegrate into regional parties like the Nationalist Congress or Trinamool.

If a secular coalition wins, the Congress could get charged with new energies and cadres. The choice is between oblivion and a bright future.

The Congress can win--but only if it goes through honest self-criticism and radical change. The pivotal factor behind the Congress's recent decline has been its Rightward shift, specifically towards neo-liberalism and soft-Hindutva. This removed the Congress away from the "natural" centre of gravity of Indian politics, which lies on the Left. It competed with the BJP on its home turf--and lost.

The Congress's first imperative is a convincing programmatic Left-of-centre shift--in economics, foreign policy, social policy, and secularism. It must sharply demarcate itself from the BJP.

Only then can it realign itself with Indian social reality, marked by mass-level deprivation, economic servitude and obscene disparities. GDP growth has failed to alter this. The Congress must relate to the underprivileged masses.

A revamped Congress could best negotiate anti-BJP coalitional arrangements. These could include two fronts: led by the Left, and itself. Some parties are allergic to the Congress, but not to the Left. These include the Samajwadi Party and Janata Dal (Secular). The DMK and MDMK too would prefer the Left. The Left has a small but committed following in about 150 constituencies and can lead ideologically.

The Congress-led front could include its present state allies like the RJD, Nationalist Congress, People's Democratic Party and the Lok Janashakti--and most importantly, Bahujan Samaj Party. The BSP has 7 to 15 percent of the vote in about 180 Lok Sabha constituencies and could be a valuable ally.

A Congress-Left alliance won't work easily. The two are rivals in West Bengal and Kerala. That competition must continue--or else, both will go under.

The Congress must also build alliances with smaller parties like Gondawana Ganatantra Parishad wherever possible. It must explore explicit alliances, seat-sharing, or other cooperation.

The party must not look for shortcuts like inducting Ms Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra as a star campaigner, or substituting good slogans for policy-level reforms. Ms Gandhi-Vadra's entry at this point could be seen as a sign of weakness.

The Congress shouldn't do a half-hearted post-mortem of its failures. The Pranab Mukherjee committee has noted criticism from many State leaders about the organisation's failure to strike strategic alliances, corruption in ticket allotment, and poor micro-management. The organisation was non-existent in Chhattisgarh and "substantially weakened" in MP and Rajasthan.

The Congress can succeed against the BJP. The euphoria about "300 seats" notwithstanding, the BJP isn't about to sweep the next elections. The NDA has probably peaked in many states. In 1999, it won all 23 seats in Haryana, Delhi, Himachal and Goa together, 19 of 21 in Orissa, 20 of 26 in Gujarat, 36 of 42 in Andhra, 41 of 54 in Bihar, 16 of 25 in Rajasthan, 26 of 39 in Tamil Nadu, 28 of 48 in Maharashtra, 29 of 40 in MP-Chhattisgarh.

The NDA can't repeat this. It's only in Assam, UP and Punjab that it could gain seats. But that might not make up for the loss. The BJP will have to fight hard to keep its 180 seats.

As the exit of the DMK and MDMK shows, the BJP is losing allies. Six parties have split from it during the past year. That is why it's trying hard to rope in Mr Kalyan Singh in UP.

But it's unlikely that Mr Singh can ride both the mandal (affirmative action) and kamandal (temple movement) platforms, as he did earlier. The RSS doesn't trust him. He cannot fully control the party in UP. He's likely to function more as Lodhi-Rajput, not as pan-OBC, leader.

The Congress can outwit the BJP. But it must first get its own ideological-programmatic act together and ruthlessly revamp its leadership. Can Ms Sonia Gandhi rise to the task?

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.