The more it changes...

Originally an unqualified democracy defines a dispensation, which power is exercised by persons who are freely chosen by people. Power originates in the people -- underlining human equality, human rights and denying the individuals or groups special or extraordinary privileges or the right to rule over the peoples. Pakistanis have had so far only unelected Army Chief's rule. What happened in 1999 was a coup that ousted a constitutional Prime Minister. The Army generals staged it and chose their Chief to head a new regime -- on their authority and sanction. All that has happened since Oct 12, 1999, including Oct 02 polls, Referendum and Legal Framework Order (LFO) and their sequel owed themselves to the will of one man: Gen. Musharraf.

Now naked dictatorship, like personal nudity, is not respectable. This country's dictators -- Mr Musharraf is the fourth -- soon become conscious of their political nudity. They try to acquire respectable political clothing by manufacturing democratic-looking institutions and putting their own toadies in charge of them. Each of them gave his own LFO. Gen Musharraf had it easy: he could imitate his work from previous dictators. His LFO is, in substance, the Eighth Amendment of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq. All dictators sought the same thing: let the source of ultimate power remain in Pakistan Army, while, on the political stage, subservient politicians can go on pretending they are MPs, MPAs, Ministers and even Prime Ministers but actually they serve the 'Boss'.

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Politicians, uniformed and civilians, and MMA wasted more than a year in negotiating the deal that has quickly been implemented in the shape of Seventeenth Amendment. Given the readiness of MMA to concede the substance of Eighth Amendment to Musharraf, talks could have been concluded in a week's time. Making the COAS uniform a fundamental issue by MMA was swallowing the camel and straining at the gnat. In the event, the Islamic Republic is to remain headed by a uniformed government servant for one more year. What difference his uniform would have made if MMA had allowed him to keep his uniform on -- unless MMA leadership knows more about the Army.

Democracy under the Seventeenth Amendment is going to no different from what obtained under the Eighth Amendment. The notion that Constitution remains the same, after what Zia and Musharraf have done to it, is inane. Its purpose has been prostituted. It now empowers the Generals of the Army. Sanction behind the powers of Gen. Musharraf remains the Army and not the people of Pakistan.

Pakistanis, one brooded on the eve of New Year -- new in the sense of calendar only --, have been caught in a time warp. Their fathers' vote created this independent country. It stayed a democracy for just a few years. By 1953 it became clear that bureaucracy -- both civil and armed -- is more powerful than the people; its will prevailed and people's elected representatives submitted. There was a succession of unrepresentative super-rulers since 1953 who manipulated the whole system until the first Man on the Horseback came to reshape everything. Later what Zia allowed was a little more relaxed than the web Ayub Khan had woven. Pakistan is now being returned to Zia's 1986 democracy. For, the change made in Article 58(2)(b) -- the heart of both Eighth and Seventeenth Amendments -- is cosmetic: when did the SC rule against the wishes of the ruling dictator?

Politicians who usually get elected in all elections rallied to Gen. Musharraf and within a month or two there was a simple majority in the NA; a brand new Musharraf-loving party sprang up and that gathered a two thirds majority in a year. The General gave little away in marathon negotiations. People are said to be apathetic and cynical: they care little about what comes and who goes. But listen to new Urdu poetry: it comprises a pervasive pessimism with a self-created optimism. Its satirical strain is frankly critical. Non-mainstream politics, one is told, is usually a heart-felt protest; it is reflected in regional literatures. Easy self-confidence seems to be conspicuous by its absence, except in the propaganda by paid pipers. Even sports do not seem to have flourished optimally thanks to overall listlessness.

All dictators claim accelerating economic development. Pakistan's first, Ayub Khan, made his own achievements the basis of his legitimacy. He celebrated the Decade of Development in 1968, though he soon encountered a popular revolt. Economic hardship drove common people to protest that left no doubt about what they think of Ayub's wonderful achievements. Bureaucracy, though, still thinks that that Ayub Decade was the best period of Pakistan's economic progress, despite its denouement. After that there was another propaganda offensive by Z.A. Bhutto's socalled socialist reforms. These too had a sorry political sequel. Other times Pakistan economy has been a patient under the care of the witch doctors of WB-IMF. Poverty has been rapidly growing for ever more people, claims of economic miracles notwithstanding.

The world sees Pakistan as an unstable state. Its long-time friends, US and its close allies, were thinking of declaring it a rogue state. Western media has talked of a failed state. It certainly became bankrupt at the end of 1998 when it could not pay $ 5 billion in annual debt servicing. Payments outlook has certainly improved since. But that is due to western powers' largesse, thanks to Pakistan's role after 9/11. Fundamentals of the economy are weak: savings and investments rate, a positive trade balance, sustained GDP growth, improved Human Development Indicators and a comfortable budgetary position with no need to run up high-interest short-term loans from international banks. Worse, Islamabad remains set on a course of open-ended arms races in all fields. The fear then is that Pakistan would again be with a begging bowl after 9/11-related help ends.

Pakistanis were not always pessimistic. In earlier phases they had not lost heart. They could hope that the dictatorships would soon come to an end and Pakistan will reach the shores of democracy. But Yahya Khan's contribution to Pakistan's unity, integrity and security -- ending in 1971 events -- changed all that. Nation's mood changed. Bhutto seemed to be a temporary promise. But he soon showed his clay feet: authoritarian style and purpose. Zia, after hanging him, bought the support of religious parties, agreed to serve American purposes in Afghanistan and gave Pakistan a radical sort of disunity of sectarianism, narcotics and Kalashnikov cultures. Popular mood took a nose dive.

It has not yet recovered. Coup by the generals in '99 put paid to what pseudo-democracy Zia had granted. Politicians without own constituencies rightly expected the Army to need them. For Musharraf could not but go through the old drill: denouncing all civilian politicians, start an accountability process with fanfare and use it to buy political support, give an LFO at the right moment, start a limited democracy and rule happily thereafter. General Musharraf is in this last phase. How long it will last is anyone's guess.

For those not sold out to the powers that be, there appears to be little in the national situation that can cheer up or be a consolation. The nation's sovereignty stands compromised when foreign governments operate on this soil for policing. In foreign policy, the General has gone the way of all other Generals and hitched Pakistan's wagon to the American star. Never mind what the American media say about Pakistan. Some dollars are flowing in and the official Washington is happy. That is enough for the ruling General. It seems Pakistan will continue -- for a while -- to have its nuclear toys that proved to be so much without deterrence that during 2002 Pakistan government had to climb down and promise not to create trouble in Indian-held Kashmir. What value to put on these "assets"? Since Pakistan's name has been linked to both North Korea and Iran, the regime stored up trouble for itself in days to come.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.