A 'good for all' decision on gas

A prolonged indecision concerning crucial national matters like, the matter of gas might, among other things, push up the costs of an eventual decision, if at all, taken in pertinent areas. Bangladesh should be mindful, among other things, about its competing priorities including those of poverty alleviation, the scarcity of opportunities (including resources) to meet those priorities and the challenges associated with their just-in-time harnessing for optimal results and impacts (in pertinent areas) in an increasingly unpredictable world. In view of that, it is expected the country would inter alia be more pragmatic, objective, forward looking and neutral in taking a good for all decision regarding its natural gas at an early date.

The good for all decision should be based on factors, such as:

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1. The best estimate of recoverable gas reserve at an affordable economic level and the anticipated period of that reserve (hereinafter: the period, unless otherwise mentioned);

2. The future of the country's economy, bi-lateral and international relations, the status of Human Development Index and other development parameters in the contexts, among other things, of globalisation, environmental security and a WTO regime through the period;

3. The findings of a comparative analysis of the respective strategies (I do not know if they exist presently) pertaining to exportation and non-exportation of gas. In that respect, Bangladesh would be required to consider a number of things, such as, whether it is interested and willing to accelerate its economic growth, poverty reduction and sustainable human development within a relatively short period of time by say, investing on its energy sector, especially in the renewable areas? If that is not the case, Bangladesh may not choose to export its gas.

On the other hand, if it opts for the exportation of gas, then a proper and timely use of gas money (from the export) could, among other things, help the country in building a solid energy infrastructure (in the country) and that could eventually lead to enhancing its per capita energy consumption -- a vital pre-condition for poverty reduction in an ever competitive world. In the event, Bangladesh would, among other things, be required to establish an effective mechanism to deal with the consequences of easy money (to be generated from the gas export) including corruption.

The list is not exhaustive.

Prior to making up their mind in favour of non-exportation of gas, the people of Bangladesh should, among other things, be able to perceive the scenarios following a complete depletion of the present reserve, say after 20 years from now. They must be able to compare the immediate and long term benefits of the exportation of gas with those associated with its non-exportation. A quantitative decision matrix may be used for establishing a numerical point based rating, as well as ranking of, for example, the advantages of exportation vis-à-vis non-exportation of gas with a view to say, determining the total scores on both counts. A decision on non-exportation of gas should be sound enough to convince Bangladeshis that the anticipated advantages of that decision are far greater than those associated with an export decision and that they are achievable with a lesser cost, time and effort.

In case, the country fails to take the yes and the no decisions in pertinent areas within a reasonable period of time, then it must inform the people about its next step in pertinent areas. Would it pursue a middle path or otherwise?

Bangladesh should be more free and frank with its people and its partners when it comes to sharing with them its concerns and other existing, as well as anticipated constraints associated with the exportation of gas. It could help the country in the development of relevant strategies and in the harnessing of support, as well as ownership for the implementation of the strategies in the pursuit of overcoming those constraints.

The country should decide whether to act decisively now or to continue its wait-and-see policy in pertinent areas. It is hoped Bangladesh would be able to take the right decision (on gas) soonest without overriding emotions and in a united manner.