Will the positive developments lead to friendly Indo-Pak ties ?

The SAARC summit in Pakistan's capital provided a badly needed dialogue at the level of the top leadership of the two countries on the sidelines of the conference of the seven regional heads of government and the outcome of this contact has remarkably changed the nature of the New Delhi-Islamabad relationship at least for the time being. By describing as "at least for the time being", there is of course no intention whatsoever to overlook the potentials generated by the developments towards a long term friendly ambience but only to stress that such optimism did exist before as well, but unfortunately fell short of expectations resulting in the dismay of those who genuinely look for better relationship between the neighbours, a pre-requisite to a healthy political climate in the south Asian region.

Summits are not uncommon between them and even symbolic gestures in the form of olive branch from one side has mostly been adequately responded by the other in the past. One can recall the "fruit diplomacy" when late Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi and late Pakistan president General Ziaul Huq gifted each other with Indian lovely 'lichis' and Pakistan's famous mangoes. This took place at a time when many of the contacts at bilateral level were not in good shape. Both met violent deaths while very much in power with absolute authority but the "fruit diplomacy" is very much in the minds of those who watched it. However, the delicious fruits could not take the sensitive bilateral ties too far as the positive ingredients created by the developments turned bitter in quick time. The Pakistani president once caused a surprise by travelling to New Delhi in short notice and visited his alma mater -- the St. Stephen College -- and many Indians welcomed him heartily despite he being a military dictator. Things momentarily looked better although none should have seriously felt that these gestures could lead to a qualitatively satisfactory stage.

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But this is also true that at times matters which otherwise may look small can significantly contribute to breakthrough in the cumbersome diplomatic tangles and the "ping pong" diplomacy is a reminder although long backstage painstaking efforts were required for the unexpected development involving nations like the United States and the communist giant China. More recently, Pakistan's present head of state visited India and did not miss the opportunity of having a glimpse of his ancestral house in old Delhi. 1947 partition had resulted in huge migration of people between newly created India and Pakistan and many in both the counties occupying the helm originally belonged to the other side of the fence. Former Indian premier I. K. Gujral is another example as he came from Jhelum of West Punjab in Pakistan.

But the "Agra" summit between Indian premier Vajpayee and Pakistan president Musharraf failed to produce results even though hype and expectation centering the occasion had raised some hopes. Earlier, the Nawaz Sharif-Vajpayee summit in Lahore caught international attention as it was seen as a breakthrough in the icy bilateral ties but the euphoria disappeared much sooner than many had expected and two sides were virtually locked in a war situation over Kargil. As such, contacts at high level do produce some sobriety in complicated and even tension-ridden ties but what is important is how long can it last and how far can it go. Earlier, too contacts at high level and even at formal summits, which were so assiduously staged, culminated in pious hopes but mostly only to be belied.

This time, however, the developments have been somewhat qualitatively different for the better as the contacts during the SAARC event spawned more positive results than such summits did before. The 11th SAARC summit in Nepal failed to create any congenial environment between India and Pakistan though it did cast a sobering effect in the bilateral ties to some extent. Since Pakistan was the host of the 12th summit, it understandably took great care in honouring particularly the Indian head of government because of the badly bruished relations. Vajpayee played his part earlier by deciding to travel to Islamabad despite a security concern caused by a second attempt on the life of the president of the host nation just ahead of the event. This decision of New Delhi in itself was a move in right direction as the condition was not used by India at a pretext to stay away. Both sides seemed sincere in making moves towards betterment of the ties. Had there been no SAARC summit, the positive environment raising hopes for a thaw in their relations would not have come today. True, situation began to look for the better for sometime past starting with the restoration of the ambassador-level diplomatic ties followed by a series of smaller steps but it was the highest level contact that really substantially broke the stand off. Because, it facilitated a high level dialogue in the month of February.

As the two nations are approaching the talks, hopes naturally soared for productive parleys and this has received further impetus by support of outside world including powerful nations welcoming the developments. Unquestionably, this has put pressure on both sides to carry forward the positive side while both countries seem convinced their peoples barring the zealots largely favour reconciliation. Two top leaders also appear to be keen to give a push in the peace process as this may also help them domestically. One is seeking to strengthen the power base after accepting some demands like shedding the army uniform next year while the other is facing national elections within few months and is obviously like to be seen as pursuing the path of peace as this may pay dividends in the polls. Gen. Musharraf may also be in the defensive as former premier Nawaz Sharif has accused him of being responsible for souring ties with India through the Kargil adventure and it is possible that Musharraf may now try to project himself as not rabidly anti-Indian by adopting postures favourable to peace. And for Vajpayee, despite existence of staunch anti-Pakistan quarters in his ruling BJP, an image of helping reduce tensions with Pakistan will come as a further shot in his arms in the twilight of his long political career.

But there cannot be any illusion that their real bone of contention is "Kashmir" in which two have almost diametrically opposite positions, which is an emotive issue for both and governments in New Delhi and Islamabad have compulsions in dealing with the vexed problem. Arguably, saner sections in both countries hold the view that stubbornness on the "Kashmir" issue only helps defying a settlement and matters cannot go any far unless both sides demonstrate spirit of accommodation. The shifting of hitherto held positions is difficult but not impossible and bold leadership can accomplish the task howsoever sensitive and difficult it is. Islamabad has indicated that a settlement of the tangle can also be explored outside the old UN resolution, which remains the basis of Pakistan's stand of solving the problem. Indeed, it is heartening when viewed from the point of realistic approach even though the matter is still not clear what could be the shape of the options. New Delhi, although maintaining that "Kashmir" is its integral part, has shown willingness to discus the matter a long with other issues. Two sides seem to be coming out from the intransigence.

Without going into details, it is possible to conclude that moves can be launched for substantive reduction of tensions by creating a condition that the contentious issue is not beyond settlement. No doubt, it will be a height of folly to expect that "Kashmir" can be resolved without going through a long and difficult process but the process can begin and both sides must seize the current opportunity of good phase being more pragmatic to improve the overall climate. The positive ambience must not be lost as this time the conditions appear better than before.

Greater interactions are following after the Vajpayee-Musharraf contact in Islamabad and all these will definitely help turn the condition for the February dialogue more conducive. The train services have been resumed and the bitterness is being replaced by reconciliatory approach. There are some tangible signs on dialogue between Indian government and sections of hard line leaders in Kashmir. Unquestionably, this is happy augury and seen as a step in the right direction.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.