Sri Lanka: Is the peace process suffering big setbacks?

Six rounds of talks between the Colombo government and the Tamil Tigers over the last more than one year raised hopes for a negotiated settlement of the contentious civil war in the south Asian island state which was virtually bleeding to white because of nearly two decades of bloodshed in the minority Tamils' armed struggle for a separate homeland in the north of the country. There was no decisive outcome of the civil war as the success in the battlefield swung from one side to the other and occasional ceasefire produced no tangible results and hostilities resumed in quick time. However, situation marked a qualitative change following the last parliamentary elections when the government of prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe took an active pro-peace policy with the rebels which facilitated a dialogue that went for several rounds in different venues abroad making some progress in the vexed problem.

While it will be a height of folly to expect easy resolution of the Sri Lankan civil war given the complexities involved in the issue, the dialogue has certainly given hopes since both sides made significant concessions. The government conceded to some demands of Tigers while the later abandoned their main position -- an independent state for the Tamils, who constitute about 18 percent of country's population but are concentrated in the northern region. The road to peace through negotiations is undoubtedly bumpy but what was remarkably encouraging was the marked willingness to find common ground towards a permanent settlement of the problem. Notwithstanding differences on some key areas, both sides demonstrated commendable attitude in carrying forward the parleys. Admittedly, talks occasionally went into rough weather and even at one stage had been suspended indefinitely but no side never spoke of chances of resuming hostilities. They overcame the bottlenecks and agreed for next round of discussions.

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Unfortunately, things turned bad in last November when president Chandrika Kumaratunga acted in a haste to dismiss three key ministers of prime minister's government and herself took over the army and police, widening her rift with prime minister Wickramsinghe. Sri Lanka has a strange democracy which is seen as neither presidential nor parliamentary. The president has wide powers including that of sacking the elected government of the prime minister even if the incumbent enjoyed majority in the parliament. But, rather paradoxically, it is the prime minister and the cabinet that effectively runs the nation. This situation which is potentially dangerous to spawn conflicts between the President and Prime Minister did not affect the government before but proved near-suicidal now as the two top persons not only come from rival political platforms but are also chief political opponents.

Ranil lost the presidential election to Chandrika but the former later won the parliamentary polls and thereby formed the new government. The problem, not surprisingly, began to grow and the co-habitation government somehow continued to function. But the stand off came to a head when President dismissed three ministers while the prime minister was away on a trip to the United States. This compounded the President-Prime Minister tussle on one hand and the fate of the peace process with the Tigers on the other. The United States, as the only superpower of the world, had earlier spoken in favour of territorial integrity of Sri Lanka and later expressed strong support for the peace efforts between the government and the Tamil militants.

The peace prospect has become uncertain because Chandrika is known as a hard liner in her approach against the Tamils and often accuses the prime minister of being soft to the rebels. Ranil defends his government's stance, saying countrymen want a cessation of the bloodshed and he won the polls taking a pro-peace policy. Possibly, the president cannot relish a situation where her political rivals succeed in peace process whereas her People Alliance (PA) government earlier failed. As the political wrangling within the government exacerbated, the nation faced political uncertainty and future of the dialogue with the Tamils hung in the balance. Talks between Chandrika and Ranil made little headway and consequently peace process looked uncertain.

There is little sign that the President-Prime minister rift is on the wane. On the contrary, it has accentuated in certain areas. Ranil said the ball is in the court of the President, who needs to resolve the difference at least to an extent so that dialogue with the rebels can resume. He is insisting that the President must restore the control of troops and police to his government, a demand Chandrika is unwilling to meet. As a result, problems persist while the prime minister has urged the president to resolve differences as early as possible. The president's Sri Lankan Freedom Party recently forged an alliance with the leftists to politically defeat the alliance of the prime minister and this has further worsened relations between the two dominant political platforms.

This situation has cast serious adverse impact on the peace process since Norway as the mediator has made it clear that it cannot play a role till such time that squabbling within the government is stopped. The Tigers are also wary that whatever progress made in the dialogue may be obviated since the President has gained greater control in the affairs of the country. Their skepticism about the peace talks is leading them to think that cessation of hostilities may not last and only fragile truce remain in force. The Tamil delegation led by its political wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan is visiting Sweden, Germany, Italy and some other countries in addition to Norway who encourage and support peace in Sri Lanka. A main reason for the visit is to spell out their predicament in the current situation and problems with the Colombo authorities severely scuttling the peace process.

It will be a big misfortune if the Lankan government fails to settle the differences, and a greater irony would be the hardening of the attitude of the rebels. The opportunity of peace that has been so assiduously nurtured must not be allowed to go in vain. It appears that the main responsibility lies with the president to act with wisdom and sagacity so that Sri Lanka avoids political instability and progress in peace endeavour with the Tamils does not return to a naught. The government said it has discovered a Tamil rebel "safehouse" in Colombo and swung into an offensive to detect militants in the capital. This has vitiated to an extent the otherwise reasonably good climate to negotiate with the militants, who feel the favourable atmosphere for peace is disappearing. However, none is still talking against peace. But fact remains that the environment is changing for the bad.

Any resumption of hostilities will only be a development of far reaching adverse consequences and all parties involved must take great care about an issue of paramount importance for the island state. Insecurity and instability in the country have a big bearing also in the overall South Asian scenario. Hopefully, leadership of the nation will act with prudence for much larger interest than individual and partisan considerations.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.