Nuclear non-proliferation regimen should be even handed

According to details available, in 2002, South Korean intelligence sources pointed finger at Pakistan as a source for centrifuge technology for North Korea. Last October, Iran gave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a paper trail of sources for its nuclear programme, and some names involve Pakistan based contacts. The centrifuge Iran has shown to IAEA resembles Pakistani design. It is believed that Pakistan's Ghauri long rage missile is a knock off from the Nondong missile of North Korea. The nexus is tied into a mutually beneficial barter, Pakistan getting missile and delivery know-how for its warheads while North Korea receiving blueprint for uranium enrichment capability. The Economist magazine has reported this.

The crackdown against the Pakistani scientists comes in the wake of Libyan declaration to open its facilities for full-fledged scrutiny and verification and Iran's landmark agreement to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear facilities. It is widely believed that extremist factions operate within Pakistan army. This element was responsible for the creation of the Taliban group that went on to capture power and gave shelter to Al-Qaeda forces. . It is a palpable risk factor that renegade elements or Al-Qaeda sympathisers within the Pakistan army may be willing to hand over nuclear secrets to terrorists. In the wake of this revelation that scientists have given nuclear secrets to other countries, effort would be intensified to get the full story.

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The issue from the standpoint of Pakistan is clear. It has long faced pressure and even sanctions from the western powers over its nuclear ambitions. Pakistan needs to show that its nuclear establishment is secure and that Pakistani authorities are doing everything to make sure that the nuclear technology does not end up being in the hands of undesirable elements. It is extremely important for Pakistan to keep that issue out of prying eyes. Any allegation that Pakistan's nuclear establishment has been involved in "destabilising" activities by exporting nuclear technology would damage credibility to the claims of Pakistan that its nuclear capability is not pernicious to the interests of the western democracies. Any proof to the contrary and Pakistan would be forced open up its installations to assuage the western intelligence agencies. The threat perception of a terrorist "dirty bomb" is worst-case scenario in the western intelligence book of crisis that needs to be prevented and averted. Pakistan is in the middle of this theatre and needs to come clean .

The proposition and the instrument to act against nuclear proliferation, it seems, are steeped in realpolitic. You have Israel, strongly nuclear and hardly even censured by the west, and on the other hand, there is Pakistan, Iran and Libya castigated for nuclear ambition and singled out for "liquidation " of their nuclear programme. Nuclear proliferation is dangerous, so one can make an issue to try and stop countries acquiring nuclear weapons. But if the effort to track the flow of nuclear related technology were to be effective, it would need to be even handed. Israel purportedly has 200 warheads. Libya and Iran are in the nascent stage of nuclear ambition, allegedly planning to acquire technology to manufacture plutonium or enriched uranium, both of which can form the fissile core of a bomb. The reaction from the west on this is vociferous, while Israel does not figure at all in any press release. As if Israel deserves to have nuclear weapons. The rationale for this unevenness is a little weak. Western government sources maintain that, Israel is a democracy firmly anchored to the western way of living. The system of government in Israel is secured and the nuclear apparatus is firmly controlled by a chain of command. While, the Arab governments are unstable, ruled by governments that are unpopular and there is widespread disenchantment that can be destabilising to any nuclear establishment.

The crux of the western policy approach is based on the twin principle of "war on terrorism " and "homeland security". Nuclear technology in the hands of a foe like committed Al-Qaeda elements is a fearful prospect for America. This behind the scene game may not be fully apparent to most people. The microscopic scrutiny and high handed interrogation of Arab countries is bound to add to the very well established and apparently justified unevenness that characterises American approach to Israel and the Arab block, in this and other issues. Israel has to come out and declare itself as a nuclear power. That is far from overdue. It is not wholly outside the realms of possibility that Jewish extremists may decide to use nuclear threat against the Arabs. Therefore, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should be privy to detail of Israel's nuclear stockpile. Convincing the world that nuclear proliferation should be stopped is going to be successful if and when the non-proliferation regimen is honest and evenhanded.

The spectre of Islamic Bomb is a serious matter for the west, in the post 9/11 scenarios. The chance of nuclear campaign by the Muslim states to oppose that of Israel was always there. The threat perception is supposedly at an all time high in the post 9/11 world, with the west worried about a "dirty bomb", in the hands of extremists opposed to the west's unilateral and often one sided punitive measures against Islamic block countries. Why the Islamic world has not been successful in creating a credible nuclear deterrent or equivalent vis-a-vis Israel is a natural extension of our thought process regarding the Middle Eastern theatre. After all, Pakistan has a bomb and a determined effort by the Meddle Eastern countries friendly to the west could have created a credible nuclear arms race , forcing the west to tin a situation where Israel itself would have been asked to release details of nuclear arms and perhaps agree to a kind of threat reduction regime.

Ershad Khandker is a senior journalist.