How much dent the opposition can cause to ruling NDA domination ?

Earlier the BJP had lost ground substantially in several states raising prospects of a return to power at the centre by the main opposition Congress. But the latest in the series of the Vidhansabha polls reversed the trend since the BJP took control of two key states -- Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan belying predictions. Furthermore, the range of its victory in both the states has been remarkably wide pushing the party there in power, Congress, to a humiliating defeat. However, Congress managed to retain power in Delhi which came as a consolation for the India's oldest political organisation.

It is the success of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan that has changed the political map of India as far as the next national elections are concerned. The party leadership was earlier favourably disposed to holding polls on schedule, which is later this year. But the outcome of the state assembly voting made the BJP leaders sit up and take a new look on the election timing as they felt early polls would help the party and the NDA since it can cash in on the mood reflected in the state elections. The differences within the BJP notwithstanding, the party opted for advancing the process of husting. The dissolution of the Lokshaba was only a matter of time and specific dates for the coming polls were being considered at the time of writing this piece.

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Political parties have swung in electioneering and are busy in evolving their strategies. Not unexpectedly, polarisation is taking place among the political forces centering the coming national polls, and new alignments are shaping up. Major parties are looking for new allies while some hitherto known partners are deserting old camps. Indeed, this is the typical scenario in a multi-party democracy and more so in a country like India where coalition politics has become the order of the day since no single party is capable of capturing power by its own strength.

One interesting alliance that has already been forged is the seat sharing arrangement between the BJP and the AIDMK in the southern Tamil Nadu state. AIDMK supremo Jayaram Jayalalitha was once an ally of prime minister Vajpayee's BJP but fell apart before the last general elections. In fact, it was Jayalalitha's desertion from the NDA that had triggered the fall of the NDA government necessitating snap polls. However, the NDA returned to power with bigger majority. Now AIDMK has gone to BJP's fold once again while its rival in the state DMK of Karunanidhi, an NDA ally not long ago, has forged electoral understanding with the Congress of the Sonia Gandhi.

Many other alliances or understandings are in the offing while smaller parties are weighing pros and cons before taking a decision. Some are still ambivalent. The Samajwadi Party of chief minister Mulyam Singh Yadav in key Uttar Pradesh seems too cautious in reaching any arrangement in the coming polls. He says his party would not align itself with any party. However, it is possible that Singh may change strategy depending on the conditions that would prevail just before the filing of nominations. All these are normal features of electoral milieu in Asian democracies where political organisations are galore even if main platforms may be restricted to two or three parties or groups.

The main issue surrounding the Indian elections is definitely how much dent the opposition can create in the somewhat seemingly invincible position of the BJP and its allies cobbled in the NDA, which is facing the polls with a favourable climate because of its track record. It is the first non-Congress government since Indian independence which has completed a full term in the office. If the polls have been advanced by a few months, it is not by any compulsion or problem but by own choice of the ruling alliance and hence it is being described as completion of the term. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was twice premier before -- first, only for twelve days of a BJP government and later had to quit office halfway through the term as NDA coalition head of the government. This time he and his government faced no major problem, let alone any situation that could force them out of office. The early polls are an indication of NDA's confidence as it has opted for it basking in the glory of the state assembly polls. Most analysts predict a return of the NDA to power with bigger number of seats.

There is no denying that NDA is fighting the polls on an easy wicket. However, the Congress and other opposition parties have to produce extra bounce and accuracy. The predictions have not always been correct as evidenced from the recent state assembly voting when Congress and the BJP were seen as neck-and-neck by media in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But the result was a near landslide for the BJP. There is no reason that an easy BJP-led alliance victory should be taken as granted although the omens are positive for it. Many calculations may get shattered and developments leading to the polls may work decisively in determining the outcome. Congress lost in Madhya Pradesh and Rajashatn because of anti-incumbency mood as it was in power in both the states. The BJP is in power at the centre and it may face similar situation.

However, it is true that a good economy, foreign policy success like initiatives to normalise relations with two major neighbours Pakistan and China, a relatively better law and order situation and finally a charismatic leader despite his failing health at the head of the government have placed the ruling alliance at comfortable condition. Undoubtedly Vajpayee is the main strength of the BJP and the NDA who helped them come to power earlier and will play a similar role this time too. The hardline communal force in the BJP often mounts pressure on the government for following a Hindu line but Vajpayee, seen as a liberal, has succeeded in confronting this and in the process gained greater acceptability of people. However, he also at times blows hot and cold on issues like "Ram Janmabhumi" obviously to keep the zealots pacified. A liberal image of the main leader will help NDA in the polls.

On the other hand, Congress is handicapped by the "foreign origin" issue of its leader Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, who is fighting a tough battle as most Indians are believed to be unwilling to see a "fundamentally non-Indian" as prime minister. To offset this situation, Congress is drafting her and late Rajiv Gandhi's son and daughter into politics keeping an eye on the coming polls. At least one senior BJP leader, Promod Mahajan, has questioned their credentials as "true Indians" as their mother is a "foreigner". While a virulent attack on Sonia may not be unwise for the BJP, calling Rahul and Priyanka as "foreigners" may be counter-productive.

The success of the opposition also lies in their ability to forge alliance among the secular and regional parties most of whom are called as third front. If the Congress and the third force can avoid split of votes in most of the constituencies, this may put the NDA in a difficult situation. However, so far little has been achieved in this direction and the task is proving daunting. Unquestionably, the NDA is approaching the polls with an easy condition but no wave exists as some would like to see an "Atal or Vajpayee wave" sweeping Indian electoral scene. The ability of the contending parties to reach out to the voters and successfully taking on opponent's citadels would be crucial and mood of the electorate may swing sides to the line-up of the polls.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.