CPM speed bump on Vajapyee road

This has given the Communist Party of India (Marxist) an edge over other political parties to entrench itself in the area. Yet what has really deepened its roots has been the land reforms the CPI (M) government has effected -- a ceiling on individual's holdings and, more than that the transfer of land ownership to the tiller. This is where people look to the future -- farmers tending their fields and Swasthya Sahayikas (voluntary health workers) promoting health care and family planning.

Midnapore is also the place where Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has revolutionalised travelling. His quadrilateral highway to connect the North with the South and the West with the East has reached here. It has reduced the 12-hour journey to Kolkata to three. People give him credit for that but stay distant from the BJP, the party he is leading in the forthcoming elections.

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"The road is making a difference in our economy", say the generally Left-inclined voters. "But we do not want any communal trouble." In their mind, the BJP is associated with the party creating a Hindu-Muslim divide. "Our two communities have lived together for centuries and it is the BJP which is trying to destroy the common bond," they say. The CPI (M) has, over the years, strengthened their conviction in the pluralistic society.

Still, the BJP is gaining ground elsewhere in the state, especially in the border districts where the Bangladeshi Muslims have been settling down and changing the complexion of the population. This is bothering both the state government and the CPI (M) leadership. West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya does not say anything on the subject because the party pounced upon him when he pointed out the proliferation of madrasas in the border areas. The illegal migration of Bangladeshis is a problem which the state does not know how to solve without disturbing the solid support of Muslims.

The BJP is exploiting the situation and trying to polarise the society. It is succeeding to some extent, much to the concern of the CPI (M). The Lok Sabha polls may not be affected but the state elections may since the assembly constituencies are small in size and visibly express local sentiments.

In the next Lok Sabha polls, the CPI (M) looks like adding to its present strength of 21. The main reason is that the United Front of Left parties has stayed intact in spite of the fear that it would falter over the allocation of seats. The CPI (M) has also gained due to the erosion of Mamata Banerjee's influence. Her Trinamool Congress has lost ground after the alliance with the BJP and her mercurial temperament has told upon her following.

The Congress could have been a viable opponent of the CPI (M). But the understanding between the two at the national level has poured cold water on the enthusiasm of some old leaders wanting to reinvigorate the Congress. Their age is not so much a factor as is their infighting. The party does not have a person of stature to guide. Once it was led by people like Bidhan Chandra Roy, Atulya Ghosh and recently by Siddarth Shankar Ray. The present leadership is that of pigmies.

Despite its limitations, the Congress may win some seats in the urban areas, alienated by the CPI (M) years ago when it rubbed the industry on the wrong side to placate the labour force. The middle class was angry and many businesses were taken away from Kolkata. Most party workers still believe that the strategy went awry, not that they were wrong. Such thinking may well be the reason why the party has not been able to grow in the states other than West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala. The party won a total of 33 in the three states in the last general election. It may tally more this time.

In the Hindi-speaking areas, its role is confined to building a viable front against the BJP to stop it from coming to power at the Centre. The CPI (M) has failed to rope in the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Yet its effort to get the non-BJP parties on one platform has not been without success. At least the DMK, a constituent of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, has severed its connection with it.

Many parties have realised that the growth of the BJP is narrowing the space for diversity. What may open the eyes of the NDA constituents is what Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Uma Bharti is doing -- converting the state into a Hindutva fiefdom under the RSS control. A few other allies of the BJP have been disillusioned following the Supreme Court's intervention in Gujarat where the state high court had let off the 22 accused in the Best Bakery massacre.

True, power is the glue that the BJP has provided to keep the NDA united. But the pressure of disillusioned voters may force two or three constituents to change sides after the polls. It really depends on how many seats the BJP wins. Its present strength is 180 in the 545-member House. The party has, however, taken it for granted that it will form the next government. The situation on the ground is changing rapidly. The Muslims who can influence the outcome in 100 Lok Sabha constituencies are firmly opposed to the BJP even though it is trying its best to woo them.

They have praised Vajpayee because of the improved relations with Pakistan. But they have disliked his initiation of the poll campaign from the Ayodhaya trail. The same Kalyan Singh who was UP chief minister when the Babri Masjid was demolished is not only back in the BJP but reiterates that the temple will be built on the disputed site.

The biggest disappointment is that of the lower half which does not "feel good" despite the expansive advertisements. In fact, there is resentment over the waste of public funds which they wish could have been spent on their betterment. They are extremely poor, neglected and facing the crunch of unemployment. They still are out in the cold and pray "India Shining" could come true some day.

The BJP has, however, done the impossible: devaluing the Nehru-Indira Gandhi dynastic factor. One great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru has joined the BJP. The other two, Priyanka and Rahul, have not set the Yamuna on fire by becoming the Congress members. It is a refreshing development because the pull of the dynasty at one time tilted the scales. There may yet be emotional response in a few constituencies in UP. Strange, people in Midnapore seldom talk about the dynasty. Their complaint is that the CPI (M) cadre is too overbearing. The administration does not take it lightly nor the party leadership. Their dilemma is how and when to draw the line. But then the eve of elections can hardly be the time to do anything.

Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.