NATO and its new seven members from eastern Europe

President Bush met the leaders of the new members at the White House and seized the opportunity to highlight the US war on terrorism. The President knows what he wants from these new member-states: troops for Iraq. Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State welcomed them and said, " I say to you and to your people: Welcome to the greatest and most successful alliance in history…

. NATO is determined above all to prevent aggression. Now it is determined to promote freedom, to extend the reach of liberty and to deepen the peace."

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It is an epoch-making event because NATO was set up in 1949 as a mutual defence alliance to contain Communism and prevent the Soviet aggression on its member states. As the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and all European states have rejected communism as their political ideology, seven former Communist countries have joined NATO and Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia also wished to join NATO.

NATO and Warsaw Pact of the Soviet Union kept uneasy peace during the Cold War era for 45 years. . Both NATO and Warsaw Pact were defensive pacts. That meant that in the case of any armed aggression, the countries of NATO or Warsaw Pact would fight jointly against the aggressor. Each superpower (US and Soviet Union) knew that any attack would be met with devastating retaliation, possibly with nuclear weapons.

Currently NATO does not serve its original purpose because there is no communist threat in Europe. NATO is no longer a defensive organisation. It had to re-invent itself after the collapse of Communism in Europe. In November 1991, NATO issued a Declaration and announced its new strategic concept. It recognised to meet the needs of the changed Europe.

The first visible indication of the change came to light when in 1999 NATO attacked former Yugoslavia to prevent genocide and "ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo. West European countries could not tolerate such barbaric activities in their backyard. NATO for the first time since 1949 turned into a pro-active military alliance to restore peace and security in Europe.

After the attacks of the September 11, NATO is not confined to Europe only. At present, reportedly under US request, NATO troops have been stationed in Afghanistan and it is very likely that after 30th June when "sovereignty" is transferred to Iraqis, NATO troops will be sent to Iraq to oversee security situation, replacing substantial number of 130,000-strong US troops in Iraq.

The question is : why have the former Communist states joined the NATO? Many factors -- both domestic and external -- have played a role but five in particular deserve mention.

First, the former Communist countries watched the new role of NATO in former Yugoslavia. These newly democratic countries are fragile in their political institutions. There exist parties of old Communist guards in their countries. Many older generations had been used to free accommodation, free health care and subsidised food under the Communist regimes and they cannot forget their good time.

By being a member of NATO, any threat from old Communist guards will be adequately contained. NATO will come to aid to maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist any security threat from within and outside. It is worthwhile to cite the core Article 5 of the NATO Treaty that provides that " an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America, shall be considered an attack against them all". That means an armed attack on any single new member of NATO will be considered an attack on all NATO members.

Second, under the former Communist regimes, these states looked up to the US and Western Europe. They want to improve upon their economy with the active cooperation and assistance of the US and the participation in NATO will enhance the consolidation of their relations with the US. Many new members of NATO sent their troops to Iraq and reaffirmed their continued stay irrespective of violence in Iraq to be in the "good books" of the US. Furthermore, it seems that in the domestic scene, the leaders may obtain political dividends from their electorate on the ground that they became closely associated with the superpower.

Third, the new emerging threat in Europe is terrorism by Islamic militants. President Bush elaborated the same theme while addressing the seven leaders in Washington. He said : " Today our alliance faces a new enemy which has brought death to innocent people from New York to Madrid. Terrorists hate everything this alliance stands for." The seven states can now count on NATO to fight any terrorist attacks on their soil.

Fourth, all the former Communist states including the seven appear to have a lurking fear from Russia. They cannot forget the Soviet occupation more than four decades. The scene of rolling of Soviet tanks on the streets in Hungary in 1956 and in former Czechoslovakia in 1968 to crush opposition to the dictatorial Communist regimes cannot be easily forgotten.

Furthermore, they closely watch that Russia under President Putin has been transforming itself into an authoritarian state. It is reported on April 2nd that Russia's Parliament proposes to pass laws that would ban demonstrations in most public places, reversing one of the most important rights won as the former Soviet Union came to an end. Russian Liberals branded the proposed law a blow against democracy after Putin won a second term in office in a landslide. Meanwhile, Russia has been increasingly gaining its economic strength, primarily due to the current price of oil and gas, the highest in the last 15 years.

Political observers believe that Russia may seek the old glory of Soviet Union by bringing together at one point of time the former Communist states within its sphere of influence to counter the US power in Europe. The seven countries by joining NATO appear to have pre-empted the possible Russian move and can now resist any political, military or economic pressure from Russia

Finally, the membership of NATO is partly symbolic in nature as well. It signals the final stage of the process of conversion from former Communist states into democratic ones. It also gives a clear message to Russia that they are independent from its control and fully competent to join the NATO Club, despite Russia's uneasiness. It is the assertion of their independence that underscores the significance of their joining NATO.

What is the reaction of NATO's expansion from Russia?

It appears that Russia has not taken kindly the expansion of NATO to its borders. It expressed disquiet over the biggest increase in NATO since 1949. Russia is particularly concerned about the inclusion of three Baltic states ( Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). All were at one time Soviet Republics, part of the Soviet Union. Now these states could provide a base for NATO troops ( including US troops) on the Russian border. Furthermore NATO air defence patrols over the Baltic States could start straightaway.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said in a statement issued before the Washington ceremony: " Without doubt, NATO's expansion touches Russia's political, military and to a certain extent, economic interests". Furthermore the Russian news agency Interfax quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Chizhov as saying : " If we feel that this expansion poses a threat to us that demands a military response, this response will follow." These are quite tough words indeed.

NATO's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer ( former Foreign Minister of the Netherlands) acknowledged that there could be some problems for Russia and he is expected to visit Moscow in April to soothe the concerns of Russia. To placate Russian leadership he said: " NATO needs a partnership with the Russians. It's in NATO's interest and at the same time it is in Russia's interest that we have a strong partnership".

Conclusion: The military equation in Europe has dramatically changed with the expansion of NATO. Now it extends from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Russia in the context of the new military environment has to find a way to secure and maintain its strategic interests. It will be interesting to watch how Russia in the future meets NATO's muscles to its border.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.