The travails of a non-NATO ally

Iraq was indeed chosen for the purpose a year ago as the US' first war on terror in Afghanistan lacked befitting target to take the full blast of the US' revolutionised military technology. Thanks to Saddam Hussain's authoritarianism combined with his narcissism Iraq had plenty of them. With the Arab world's most modern state and a moderately industrialised Iraq lying pulverised after a few weeks' pounding of its infrastructure, the Anglo-American invaders couldn't but produce an effect of 'shock and awe'. It only helped raising the curve of Bush's approval rating. In an anti-climax a year later, Iraq is an albatros around the invaders' neck. They do not know how to cast it off; neither can they swallow it up.

The country's Shia majority has now closed ranks with the guerillas of Sunni triangle -- known for their loyalty to Saddam -- and the secular Bathists blended with al-Qaeda militants allegedly infiltrating across Iraq's porous border to put up a nationalistic resistance and give a bloody nose to the occupation forces. The anti-American violence has erupted across the whole country particularly by the Shias loyal to firebrand cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, after the closure of newspaper published by him. The intensity of the opposition to the occupation forces has not only led to the widescale killings of Iraqis in reprisal, it has also steadily increased the American casualties compelling the occupiers to rethink their strategy and need for reinforcements. Paul Bremer, Iraq's American ruler, has admitted that things were not going favourably for handing over sovereignty to the Iraqis by 30 June. Meantime, the coalition is also about to crumble after at least new government of Spain announcing its intention to pull back the troops from Iraq.

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In this bleak hour Washington has refocused its attention on Afghanistan where in the wilderness of its border with Pakistan general Pervez Musharraf, the US' trusted ally, is desperately fighting a losing battle with an assorted lot of Taliban and al-Qaeda fugitives. Close in the heels of this war being fought at the US' behest one of the Washington's extraordinary gestures appears from the blue to cheer up an embattled general engaged in hunting down a high value target -- a trophy to be presented to the war cabal in Bush White House.

The US has been particularly generous in awarding Pakistan a major non-NATO ally status and within a week of this move decided to lift democracy- related sanction imposed on Pakistan in the wake of military take over of 1999. The decision clears the way for Pakistan to receive America's military and economic aid worth millions of dollars. By the end of current-fiscal year Islamabad will have received $390m while the amount for the next year has been increased to $701m. This is part of five-year three-billion dollar military and economic package promised to Pakistan in Camp David last year. However, to most Pakistanis this is long expected from the US whose bidding Pakistan has been faithfully doing as frontline state since the war on terror had started in Afghanistan in 2001. It is therefore little more than wage for the services rendered by Pakistan.

May that be so, the timing of both the bestowal of the status and the dangling of aid package have been cleverly contrived to enthuse Pakistan to 'do more on the warfront taking care of al-Qaeda and Taliban big shots in Pakistan's tribal belt which they are reported to be hiding. However, a military operation of this nature in semi-autonomous tribal belt where anti-US sentiments run high is both risky and unpopular. Pakistan's religious political parties already resented the operation and Musharraf himself escaped several attempts on his life. Not only that. It was an embarrassment when after hyping up the operation by none other than Musharraf himself hinting that Ayman Zawahiri, the deputy to bin Laden was finally trapped by Pakistan Army in the wilderness of South Waziristan. The expedition did not yield anything. Even the CNN anchorman's suggestion that fierce resistance received from the militants pointed to the presence of a 'high value target' in their midst proved false. The embarrassment was total when the trapped militia inflicted, instead of surrendering, heavy casualties first on the frontier constabulary and then on the regulars. And the 'high value target' remained as elusive as before.

However the prospect of renewed flow of military and economic aid from the US has, of course, pleased the Pakistanis who nevertheless sorely recall that such thing was of no consequence in the past and squandered away by the vested interests. With regard to the status of major non-NATO ally the reactions are mixed. While President Musharraf's main constituency, the military in Pakistan, is happy over it for it holds out the prospect of increased military interaction and cooperation. It however draws flak from the political front, particularly the MMA which has been decrying such relation with the US.

Under the US' pressure on Pakistan's military the tribal traditions are already under strain. Since the British days the tribals were allowed full internal autonomy in return of the tribals' nominal allegiance. This system served the British well for a century and the Pakistanis since 1947. Now under non-NATO ally status Pakistan is obliged to do series of dirty jobs at the US' behest including military operation in an exclusive area. After paying an odd $300 million a year the Americans couldn't care less what happens to a time-tested tribal tradition or its social fabric. They are in quest of a quick trophy -- that too before the presidential election of November next.

Pakistanis are still trying to understand what practical benefit the newly bestowed status would accrue to them except they are only aware that it is symbolic in character equating Pakistan with about dozen of US' major non-NATO allies like Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Thailand, Argentina and so on. They are also painfully aware that the asset of some of other such countries is indeed their own inherent strength: political, economic and industrial. How much an agrarian and backward Pakistan will fit in that exclusive club is something to be seen later. In the meantime Indo-Pak peace process to which hinges the country's real progress and prosperity is at stake.

India which initiated a reconciliation process recently with Pakistan only recently appears to have been somewhat rattled by the US' decision to bestow the status of a major non-NATO ally on Pakistan. Vajpayee who took pride just a couple of months ago in fostering strategic relations with the US is embarrassed by the US' decision during the election time in India. It is yet not know if the development will have any negative impact on Indo-Pak peace process. If it does it will offset all the benefits offered by the US to Pakistan while conferring on her the new status. There cannot be any alternative to peace and the benefits it brings about.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.