Hostage crisis signals problem for Koizumi

It is obvious that all they calculated while sending soldiers to the unfriendly terrain of Iraq was that the troops might come under attack from the hostile elements of Iraqi population and hence there might be casualties among the Japanese. To minimise the effect of any such possibilities, soldiers had to undergo further training in combat operation before moving over to Iraq. Moreover, they have been provided with sophisticated weapons with an abundant supply of munitions capable of not only thwarting any surprise enemy attack, but also of eliminating all known sources of threat. In short, the Japanese leadership was prepared for attacks on its troops that might have resulted even in some casualties within its rank and file.

But for Koizumi, the surprise attack came from a totally unexpected corner targeting not the soldiers stationed in southern Iraq, but the government sitting in its protective surroundings in Tokyo. Weapons and munitions used to make such a long distance attack are human beings who do not have any direct connection either with the Japanese military unit stationed in Iraq or with the government busy now sorting out how to salvage the situation.

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The three Japanese who had been taken hostage in Iraq on Thursday were no strangers in that land. Two of them were in the country before and the third is an active member of an anti-war group in Japan that has been calling on the US government to compensate those Iraqis who became victims of weapons made of depleted uranium. The group that has taken them hostage initially said the three Japanese would be burned to death unless Tokyo withdraws its forces from Iraq in three days. They have become unfortunate pawns of a phony war now going on between the government of Japan eager to protect American interest in Iraq and Iraqi insurgents determined to salvage the freedom lost to the Americans.

And in that war game, protesters in Tokyo are now joining the call for Japanese troops to leave Iraq, making the situation much more complicated for Koizumi and his colleagues. The government on the other hand is making appeal for the release of hostages on humanitarian ground, saying that they are innocent civilians who went to Japan not to harm the people but to help them. The families of the hostages seemed to be holding a middle ground throughout the crisis, as they were busy appealing to both sides to think pragmatically. To the government of Japan their message was clear -- start withdrawing troops from Iraq, if necessary even for the time being, to show that Japan is not in harms way for the Iraqis. And to the hostage takers the message conveyed by the family members was also simple -- killing those who do not subscribe to the idea of sending Japanese troops to Iraq might only harm their own cause.

The appeal seems to have a direct effect on Saraya Mujahideen, as they have by now informed al-Jazeera television station of their decision to release the Japanese hostages within 24 hours. The group at the same time criticized Koizumi for being arrogant in his comment as he all along maintained that Japan was determined to keep 500 ground troops in Iraq who would continue their humanitarian work and his government had no intention to give in to the demand of the hostage takers.

For the Japanese government the situation was the nightmare come true. The government had always been insisting that the members of country's self defence forces have been sent to Iraq not to fight a war, but to help the country overcome difficulties it is facing after the collapse of Saddam Hussein administration. As a result, the war in Iraq until now seemed to be quite far from the reality that people of Japan are confronting. Even the Madrid bombing had little impact on the way people thought about the war in Iraq and its impact. The hostage crisis has now removed that mythical curtain hanging over reality and as if forced the people of Japan to confront bloodshed and general terror in Iraq.

Koizumi has so far made it clear that he will not bend to terrorism saying that there is no question of withdrawing self-defence force unit from Samawah. But how in the future he would be able to maintain that position in response to the goodwill gesture shown by hostage takers is not clear yet. Any future crisis might not turn out to be as easy as this one and by failing to help Japanese citizens getting out of harms way in Iraq he might take a huge political risk.

There is also little in a way what he can do to rescue the hostages in any future incident. Japan doesn't have a special military unit trained to free the captives. Neither country's constitution allows sending hit teams to storm a place overseas and rescue its endangered citizens. Japan had to face same kind of dilemma back in mid 1990s when country's embassy in Peru was taken over by leftwing insurgents who demanded the release of political prisoners in exchange of hostages they were holding inside the building. The Japanese government was helplessly watching the development until the Peruvian army came to the rescue and stormed the embassy.

But the situation in Iraq is significantly different as law and order situation in the country has broken down completely and there is no possibility of any Iraqi help coming in the process of rescuing the captives. What the Koizumi administration can expect in such a situation is American assistance in tracking down hostage takers. But here too the prospect of any successful operation to free the hostages looks absolutely grim as the US army in Iraq itself is losing control over much of the territory and paying a high price for an occupation carried out calculating only the strength of arms and not that of human mind.

Hence, for Koizumi the only viable option that remains open is to give a serious thought to what he thinks more important -- friendship with a friend whose motives are questioned by many around the world, or the lives of citizens whose safety and welfare is supposed to be his top priority. After all it is no secret that the troops Japan has to send to Iraq are not for what the policymakers in Tokyo intend to say as helping the reconstruction of Iraq, but to please an ally that Japan cannot afford to displease. As the Americans are destroying everything in Iraq, including such holy places as mosques on a daily basis, the process of reconstruction of the country is bound to end up as an endless task reminding us of the Myth of Sisyphus. Thus, the hostage crisis might provide a face-saving way to get out of a maze that looks more puzzling with the passing of each day. And as the captors are now set to free their captives without any precondition, Koizumi might well claim that he has not bowed down to the demands of any armed group, but came to such a conclusion thinking about the safety of Japanese at home and around the world.