BJP's overkill backfires

Yet, going by sober political assessments, and successive opinion polls, India could have truly indecisive results, in which neither the National Democratic Alliance nor a Congress-led coalition emerges a clear winner.

The earliest large-sized poll, by India Today (in January), gave the NDA an emphatic 330-340-seat majority in the 545-member Lok Sabha, and the Congress and allies only 105-115 seats.

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Two subsequent polls by Outlook (late-February) and Indian Express-NDTV (mid-March) put the NDA's tally much lower (respectively 280-290 and 287-307), but still gave it a majority. The Congress and allies' tally improved to 159-169 and 143-163. The unambiguous trend? A narrowing of the gap between the two coalitions.

Now, two new polls, by Zee-TV and Star News, say the NDA might pass the half-way mark just by a whisker. It might even fall short. Zee's lower-end estimate gives it 265 seats. And the Star poll predicts 271 to 283. The lower figure falls below the magic mark of 273. The NDA cannot possibly feel secure about its prospects.

Admittedly, India's experience with opinion polls is mixed. They use diverse samples and incompatible methods. Most went wrong in the latest Assembly elections. The new Indian Express-NDTV Maharashtra forecasts are contradicted by the polling agency it hired (AC-Nielsen).

In truth, psephology isn't a precise science. Rather, it's a difficult art, or more accurately, business. Its predictive value is limited in a complex, diverse society like India's where voters may not reveal their true intentions for many reasons.

So, the election's outcome isn't all sewn up as the BJP's spin-masters would have us believe. Despite all its arrogant self-confidence, the BJP's top leadership knows it'll be difficult to reach, leave alone exceed, the 1999 tally of 182. Ten allies have deserted the BJP. Some of those which remain, like the JD(U) and Nationalist Trinamool Congress, are likely to do badly.

There are indications that BJP leaders recognise that this will prove a hard slog and have drawn up contingency strategies:

¦ The BJP is tapping xenophobia (anti-foreigner hatred) by making the "foreign origin" issue a central campaign plank. As a senior BJP leader says, this is an insincere, opportunist strategy. It will end with the elections.

¦ The BJP isn't sure that "normal" campaigning can energise its cadres. So it launched the Advani rathyatra. (But this has drawn a pathetic response.)

¦ It drafted the "Vision 2004" document mainly to reassure Hindutva hardliners that it still remains wedded to the RSS's core-agenda.

¦ The BJP knows Mr Vajpayee's acceptance rating is twice as high as its own. So, it's milking his "soft" image and trying to give the campaign a "presidential" spin. But the electoral process in a parliamentary system, with multiple national, local and caste factors influencing the voter, is qualitatively different.

¦ The BJP hasn't fielded senior leaders as candidates other than the Vajpayee-Advani-Joshi trio. It doesn't feel assured of their victory. Key NDA leaders are changing seats--including Mr Vinay Katiyar, and Messrs George Fernandes and Nitish Kumar in Bihar.

¦ The BJP blackmailed Ms Mayawati (vulnerable because of the "Taj Corridor" case) into rejecting an alliance with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. That alliance would have resulted in a turnover of about 60 seats, nationally tilting the scales against the NDA.

¦ BJP leaders abusively attack Ms Sonia Gandhi and her family--to capitalise on prejudice and hatred prevalent within the VHP, RSS and other sangh outfits. This is necessary because their support isn't automatic. The BJP is also desperately running "surrogate" anti-Opposition smear-campaigns.

¦ The party's second-generation leaders are furiously commissioning survey after "private survey", with huge samples such as 200,000 for Uttar Pradesh. Their typical results aren't mutually compatible, and not reassuring either.

The BJP's "overkill" has boomeranged. It itself admitted (April 1) that "India Shining" hasn't found favour with the middle class, its main target. As for ordinary people, Zee reveals that 73 percent haven't even heard of the "feel good" campaign.

The adverse reaction to Mr Vajpayee's 54 pictures in the 48-page "Vision" album has prompted a second edition. Modi's tactic of abusing Ms Gandhi as a "Jersey cow" and someone unfit to become a shop clerk has put off people.

The BJP is especially vulnerable in Uttar Pradesh, where it won 25 seats in 1999. In the state Assembly, it trails behind the SP and BSP. Worse, its Thakur vote is fast shifting to the SP. Some Brahmin BJP supporters too may vote for the Congress. If the BJP cannot do well in UP, it's unlikely to reach the 180-seat mark nationally.

None of this gives the Congress a decisive edge over its adversary. It has to create that edge by offering an attractive, radical new vision to the masses, and by broad-basing its alliances.

The Congress has suffered setbacks in building coalitions in the North, barring Jharkhand. It can make up by both strengthening alliances elsewhere, and by infusing enthusiasm into cadres through imaginative people-oriented programmes.

Signs of this happening are vague and uncertain. The Congress isn't taking bold steps because it's afraid of being branded "populist". But there is nothing wrong with populism. The Congress will only gain if it revives and universalises the Public Distribution System and subsidises food for the poor (and not fertiliser for the rich, as at present).

The people will welcome the Congress if it guarantees free primary healthcare and decent-quality elementary education.

The Congress hopes that Priyanka Gandhi's entry will energise the party. She can certainly put some icing on the Congress's electoral cake. But the base of the cake needs bold, imaginative "populist" schemes and slogans.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.