Who's going to win the Democratic veepstakes?

The first and most persuasive reason is that it will help Kerry to define himself. The decision of who to pick for vice-president is the first important decision that a prospective president can make and generally goes a long way to helping create an impression of him in the minds of the voting public.

With the Republicans running ads on a daily basis in the battleground states portraying Kerry as soft on terror and national security, the sooner Kerry is able to define himself the better. If he leaves it too late, he will have an uphill battle to change the minds of swing voters whose opinions will already have been formed by the barrage of negative ads run by the Bush campaign.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

A second reason to pick a veep early is that it adds a new face to the campaign to take some of the weight off Kerry. In addition, a vice-presidential nominee can always be a little bit tougher and meaner than the nominee for president who will not want to appear too negative or too shrill. With the campaign heating up, Kerry could use an attack dog running-mate to help counter the mud that is being slung his way while he attempts to stay above the fray.

The third reason is that picking a running mate keeps the heat on Bush by keeping the focus on the November elections. In fact, some influential party insiders have argued that Kerry should go ahead and name his entire prospective cabinet so that people will have a real chance to look at the two candidates and see how a Kerry presidency would differ from a Bush one.

The conventional wisdom is that a presidential candidate should pick a running mate from a different part of the country to give the ticket some kind of geographic balance. This is considered especially important for Kerry since he is from the Northeast and will want to do something to counter the image that will be painted of him as a rich, liberal, elitist, New Englander with no connection to working class and middle class white voters in the South and the Midwest.

The second expected consideration in picking a running mate is ideological balance. The idea is that the nominee picks a running mate who is either more moderate or more conservative than the nominee in the hopes that the pick will broaden the base of the ticket's appeal.

But increasingly, nominees are not picking their veeps according to these criteria. In fact, in recent memory, only the 1960 election works as a successful example of a vice-presidential candidate being picked to give the ticket some regional and ideological balance.

In 1960, Massachusetts Senator John Kennedy picked the Texan Lyndon Johnson to shore up his support in the South and also to add a touch of conservatism to the ticket.

It worked. Johnson most likely carried the state of Texas for Kennedy, without which he would not have won the election.

But these days candidates no longer seem to choose veeps for ideological and geographic balance, but to make a statement. Who a candidate for president picks for his veep tells us something about the candidate and helps the candidate to define himself as he wishes to be defined.

George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney in part to create the impression that he wasn't scared to ask an experienced hand for help managing the affairs of state. It reassured those who thought that Bush was too callow and inexperienced by showing that he was capable of making a mature decision and by adding a steady hand to the ticket.

Al Gore's pick of Joe Lieberman was similarly successful in helping to define Gore the way in which he wished. It made Gore seem bold and decisive and not afraid to take chances. In addition, by picking for his running mate the most prominent Democratic critic of President Clinton, Gore used the pick to signal his distance from his boss. It showed that he was his own man.

Clinton's own pick of Gore as veep was itself inspired. By picking someone similar to himself in age, philosophy and geographical background, Clinton exploded the conventional wisdom and made himself look bold by doing something different. The pick also reinforced Clinton's message of change and dynamism.

Bold and defining picks are not always successful. Picking Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman on a national ticket, didn't do much to help Walter Mondale's chances in 1984, but let's face it, no one Mondale chose would have made much of a difference.

Bearing all this in mind, let us run the rule over the possible candidates for the vice-presidential nomination. The names mentioned most often are those that will supposedly help shore up support for Kerry in battleground states.

The theory is that Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, or Indiana Governor Evan Bayh will be able to deliver their home states for Kerry and could help him run close in the other crucial battleground states in the contested Midwest.

Senator Bob Graham is touted as being able to swing Florida and also has impeccable foreign policy and national security credentials. Then there is North Carolina Senator John Edwards who, it is thought, might add a touch of down-home folksiness to the ticket that would play well in the South. Governor Bill Richardson could deliver New Mexico and has the added attraction of being Hispanic.

But, as I have suggested, picking a veep based on these kinds of geographical considerations would be a mistake. In the first place, such a pick might look too openly political, and in any event there is no guarantee that any of the above-mentioned candidates will be able to deliver. But most importantly, such a choice wouldn't help to define Kerry and that, more than anything else, is what he needs to do with his pick for veep.

How does Kerry need to define himself? The early attack ads launched by the Bush campaign are instructive. It is clear that the Bush campaign strategy is to attempt to position Kerry as soft on terror and weak on national security. Bush's ostensible leadership in the war on terror and his supposed steadfastness on matters of national security are his strongest suit.

So it is vital for Kerry to define himself as strong on national security and tough on terror. This is the image he needs to project to the voting public. Kerry's veep nominee should therefore be someone who helps project that image. In other words, the best choice would be someone with a military or national security background.

From this perspective, Four-star General Wesley Clark would be a great veep. It has been argued that the poor campaign he ran for the nomination shows that he is not ready for prime-time, but the vice-presidential slot is an easy gig. I think he could handle it.

Another possibility might be Four-star Marine General Anthony Zinni who has served as head of Central Command responsible for US forces in the Middle East and is a prominent critic of the Bush administration's handling of Iraq and the war on terror.

The dream veep would be Senator John McCain (R-Az) who is also a decorated Vietnam veteran and close personal friend of Kerry's. McCain might be keeping his powder dry for a presidential run in 2008, but if he figures that he is too moderate to ever receive the Republican nomination, then he might as well go for the veep slot this time around.

I cannot predict who Kerry will pick as his running mate. But if he is serious about winning he ought to give a considerable amount of thought to picking someone with national security credentials who will help him to project an image of strong and bold leadership in a time of war.

Zafar Sobhan is an assistant editor of The Daily Star.