The race for Indian premiership

When the elections were announced a few months ago advancing the hustings by several months, the clear impression was that the ruling national democratic alliance(NDA) led by a charismatic premier would romp home easily and will retain power with a greater majority. The NDA, which had a comfortable majority in the lower house of parliament (Loksabha) was bristling with confidence based on several factors like the personal popularity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a good economy, bumper harvest and normalising ties with arch foe Pakistan. Besides, unexpectedly satisfactory performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the main partner of the 22-party rainbow coalition, in the last of the assembly elections particularly in the Madhya Pradesh and Rajsthan had come as a shot in the arms of the NDA. It wanted to cash in on the favourable public mood and polls scheduled for October were advanced and this was certainly a measure of confidence for the ruling alliance. No wonder, coalition policy makers said they may end up with more than 300 seats in the 546-member Loksabha, at least 27 more than required to form a government. But the hopes are getting belied as voting reaches the final stage and impression is gaining ground that the ruling coalition might fall much short of "magic number" 273, let alone a comfortable majority. However, the NDA still is the forerunner to secure the single majority while an absolute majority appears eluding the coalition. Main opposition Congress and other anti-NDA parties are believed to be narrowing down the gap but are likely to end up only after the 22-party alliance.

If the NDA somehow manages to secure absolute majority which is at least 273, there will be no confusion for its return to power and Vajpayee remains premier for the fourth time in India. But if it fails to make it -- which is not unlikely -- the NDA will have to look for new partners to form a government. In such a situation, smaller parties willing to extend support will obviously like to have a slice of the cake that would enormously benefit them. NDA in such an event would seek to lure some parties like the Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party or Ms. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in its quest to install a government. Both the parties are restricted in the vast Uttar Pradesh state but are expected to gain considerable number of seats of the total 80 that comes from this state. But the bargaining can be tough as both Yadav and Mayawati are known to be harbouring high ambitions like the premiership or the deputy prime ministership. Yadav is the chief minister of UP while the latter is the former chief minister and their parties -- a force to reckon with in the state -- are fighting the polls by themselves maintaining distance from both NDA and the Congress. Two leaders are expected to play their cards only after the election results depending on their strength in the new Loksabha but both are expected to be wooed by NDA and Congress should there be a hung parliament. As such, Yadav and Mayawati may emerge as key factors in the formation of new government.

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Congress had 109 seats in the dissolved Loksabha but is expected to improve its tally. However, it is unlikely to come even near the "magic number" by its own strength. Congress has forged electoral alliance with some powerful regional parties like the nationalist Congress of heavyweight Sharad Pawar in Maharastra, Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar and K. Karunanidhi in the southern Tamil Nadu. Together, they may finish closely behind the NDA but the leftists like the CPM and CPI in West Bengal, Kerala and other states as well as the centrist secular parties would be inclined to support the Congress-led government in preference to the NDA, whose main constituent BJP is widely seen as communal. Their chance of forming a government would come only after the single largest party or group fails to muster the support of an absolute majority. But here too manifold complications may surface since Pawar, Yadav and Karunanidhi -- all former chief ministers of their respective states -- may throw their hats for premiership even though their parties are smaller compared to the Congress and lack the national character. Congress president Sonia Gandhi's "foreign" origin will play an important role that since these leaders despite having electoral alliance with the Congress are not necessarily favouraby desposed to Sonia's becoming head of the government in the country. Pawar is especially known for his aversion to seeing Sonia as the Indian prime minister and it is precisely on this issue that he parted ways with the Congress and set up his own nationalist Congress.

Congress, on its part, will strive to make Sonia prime minister in the event of a non-NDA government but the effort may fall flat because of opposition by some parties with whom it may seek to form the government. In such a fluid situation, the Congress may opt for helping a government to be formed without directly sharing power in order to keep the BJP-led NDA away from South Bloc. Smaller parties will emerge as power broker in such a flux and "Dark horses" may emerge as prime ministerial hopefuls for wider acceptance.

Relatively unknown H D Deve Gowda of the Janata Dal from Karnataka had unexpectedly become prime minister of such a non-NDA Congress supported United Front government. West Bengal's veteran communist leader Jyoti Basu was the initial choice but his CPM party disapproved sharing power while supporting the formation of a non-NDA government. Haryana's Lokdal leader Om Prakash Chautala or NDA ally in Tamil Nadu Jayaram Jayalalitha or Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh are likely to have important say in the formation of the new government should the NDA or the Congress fail to form a government. Some individuals commanding respect and less controversy may also emerge as consensus candidate for the likeminded parties if the process of forming a new government becomes somewhat intractable. But in case the NDA forms the government, Vajpayee is their only choice for premiership and it is the election pledge of the alliance. Two other strongmen after him in the coalition are BJP's deputy prime minister L K Advani and Samta Party's defence minister George Fernandes. In the Congress, important figures after Sonia include former senior ministers Monomohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee. Sonia's son Rahul is expected to become an MP from his slain father Rajiv Gandhi's Amethi constituency but still may have to go a long way to take up the mantle of leadership of the party and government.

President A P J Abdul Kalam may find himself in complex circumstances in the event of a hung parliament since his role becomes critically important in the formation of a new government. However, he is expected to first invite the largest single party or group to form the government if none is clear winner but contending parties have to convince the president of the support of at least 273 members for a new government.

The president is expected to explore all possibilities for a new government if the elections produce a fractured verdict. The post-election scenario in India may be interesting unlike the last elections when the NDA won direct mandate by securing absolute majority. However, the previous NDA government had to quit office midway through its term as it lost majority. Vajpayee was premier of both the NDA governments but his first stint as prime minister for a BJP government was only for 12 days when he failed to prove majority on the floor of the House after he had formed the government. In all probability, none would want or relish such a situation.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Senior Special Correspondent of BSS.