Complacency and a risky gamble sinks NDA

However, some analysts, though scant in number, described the decision as a risky gamble which was likely to pay off but could also boomeranged on the ruling coalition since Madhya Pradesh and Rajsthan should not necessarily be taken as the barometer of national sentiments. This apprehension, sadly for the NDA, came true. The alliance performed very well also in the national elections in these two states where the Congress and its allies cut a sorry figure.

But the scenario in elsewhere in India is dismal for the NDA and it is so much so in some states like the Tamil Nadu and West Bengal that it drew a total blank. In Tamil Nadu, BJP and its allies failed to secure any of the 39 seats while BJP has been totally eliminated from leftist-ruled West Bengal where its ally Trinamul Congress just saved its face by winning a single seat by its chief Mamata Banerjee.

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In many other places like Delhi, the NDA somehow maintained its presence as it won only one of the seven seats in the Indian capital. The whole result was a kind of anti-climax not only for the NDA but also many independent observers and exit polls. It has been a shocking defeat for the NDA and more so more its main partner BJP and its two top leaders Vajpayee and Advani. By stark contrast, the outcome of the polls is something like a dream coming true for the Congress -- creating a situation for its return to power after eight years.That too has come under the leadership of a lady who has always been ruthlessly described by the critics as a "foreigner" because she was born in Italy and by dealing a crushing blow to a charismatic and long experienced leader like Vajpayee.

It is a fast developing situation particularly as regards when the government will be formed and who would become the prime minister. In the past, situation existed in India in the post-election scenario, when confusion existed about the formation of the new government as well as about the leader. But this time there is hardly any doubt that it is the Congress which is going to form the government with its allies and like minded parties and its leader Sonia Gandhi is set to become the prime minister.

True, none of the parties or the alliance has secured an outright victory to easily enable the formation of the new government but the NDA has conceded defeat in a gracious demonstration of adherence of the democratic values even when the trend was clear that it was going to lose the peoples mandate. The Congress has emerged as the single majority party and obviously it will have the first chance to form the government.

With its allies like the Rastriya Janata Dal from Bihar, DMK from Tamil Nadu, and Nationalist Congress in Maharastra, and parties willing to extend support like the Left Front in West Bengal, the Congress is well poised to have the required majority for a new government in India. When this piece is published, it is possible that sufficient progress has been made towards forming a new government and a new prime minister, which in all probability is a Congress-led ministry with Sonia Gandhi at the helm.

Several factors can be attributed to the unexpected shocking defeat for the NDA and a remarkable victory for the Congress and its allies. First, NDA's confidence for a comfortable win in the polls was misplaced as it judged the mood only on the basis of the outcome of the two states where the Congress was in power and was suffering from anti-incumbency crisis. It did not bother much to calculate the situation elsewhere like the vast Uttar Pradesh and the south where it performed very badly. It spoke of a good economy and was counting on "shining India" but the crude reality is that this "shine" touched some urban areas but not the overwhelmingly rural areas.

This slogan itself was counter-productive as many poor took it as ridiculous to their plight. A good harvest claimed by the NDA had nothing to do with the government's performance but a favourable weather. Efforts for good ties with arch rival Pakistan had the approval of major political parties even though the NDA sought to project this as its contribution. The cricket series with Pakistan, the NDA felt, boosted its popularity among the electorate, but the Congress sent Sonia's daughter Priyanka and Rahul to Karachi to watch the match and support the event.

Here, the NDA did not get the benefit of Indian win in Pakistan. Too much of attack on Sonia Gandhi on the "foreigners" issue and designs to even colour her children as "half-foreigner" drew support and sympathy for Congress whose top leaders mostly belonged to the famous Nehru-Gandhi family. Finally, the NDA was too complacent and relied very much on Vajpayee's image, which is certainly not as strong as before.

On the contrary, the Congress made serious strides to win back power and Sonia visited far flung areas with the call for a change that appealed to many voters. She herself spared to efforts to adjust with Indian language and culture and drafting Priyanka and Rahul into active politics helped stave off the campaign on "foreigners" issue and paid dividends. It also forged better electoral alliance this time compared to the NDA and covered more areas in the vast country in terms of meaningfully reaching out to the electorate.

The Congress also succeeded in convincing most minorities that the BJP is trying to appease them as a electoral strategy but they may experience Gujarat type conditions if the NDA is again voted to power. There are other issues as well which favoured the Congress. However, the verdict is fractured and not an absolute one. But the very fact that it is the Congress and not the BJP which got maximum seats is a splendid victory by the non-NDA secular forces in the existing circumstances.

Whatever be the scenario as far as the governance is concerned in the future, as far as the outcome of the elections is concerned, it is a spectacular performance for the Congress and its leader Sonia while a disaster for the BJP which may find it extremely difficult to recover the lost ground.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Senior Special Correspondent of BSS.