Japan, Koizumi and Bangladesh

Most of us in the modern world are affected in some way or other by the ideas, culture and economy of Japan. Yet, this country remains for many an enigma, an unsolved riddle, Westernised, but different from any Western country. It is part of Asia, but clearly unlike any other Asian society. In this country tradition and modernity have become part of one continuum.

I was recently in Japan on the invitation of their government. For me, it was a revelation. Japan proved to be a stimulating fusion of the East and West.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

The Japanese might have a practical, syncretic and polytheistic approach to religion, often perplexing to outsiders, but the modern Japanese society, which has developed from a feudal system is today astonishingly egalitarian. Despite modernity and industrialisation, Japan has been able to blend many aspects of its beliefs with its family values. Devotion to hard work has combined in this country with a submission to the consensus of the group rather than the individual. This factor has become a major binding element in Japanese society.

My discussions with senior Japanese officials as well as ordinary people on the street underlined two aspects -- how cautious the ordinary citizens generally are and how their experience over the last few years have added greater sobriety to their national character. Almost everybody recalled the fact that decades of uninterrupted growth had been affected and recession had emerged after the bursting of the bubble economy in the 1990s. This, they commented, had led not only to hardships and unemployment but also in many cases into forced early retirement. There was also a consensus that these difficulties had prompted the Japanese government to move towards long overdue economic reform and a greater opening of its markets to international trade.

These steps appear to have paid off. Japan under the guidance of Prime Minister Koizumi is slowly re-emerging not only as an important and active player in the neighbouring Asian region but also in the wider arena of international affairs. He has been able to steer Japan slowly but surely out of its difficulties.

Today's article will attempt to touch on some of the significant things that are currently happening within Japan under the stewardship of Junichiro Koizumi.

A non-believer in staid leadership, this photogenic gentleman has been in the news most recently with his risky gamble of going to Pyongyang to bring back five children of Japanese background. Their parents (rescued earlier by the Prime Minister in 2002), it may be recalled, had been abducted by North Korea in the 1970s. The high-risk venture was successful and has further enhanced his popularity.

He now stands head and shoulders above any real challenger in his country. This trip was well timed to divert attention from an irritating pension-funding scandal that had surfaced and forced not only his chief cabinet secretary to step down but also claimed two of his most prominent rivals. It is now generally agreed that the success of the Prime Minister in North Korea will improve the prospects of his party ahead of local elections this summer. In the meantime, Koizumi is mending factional divisions within his Liberal Democratic Party.

Japan, like Italy, has had its share of fractious democratic politics in the last decade. Under the present Prime Minister, however, the administration appears to be slowly moving to a new format in terms of political dictum. This shift has been described as being almost "presidential". In doing so, Koizumi is probably emulating the same posture adopted in the United Kingdom by Prime Minister Blair. There appears to be a striking similarity in the way he is interacting with bureaucrats in the arena of policymaking. Under Koizumi, more emphasis is now being given to his allies within his party rather than on the usual bureaucratic machinery. For his most recent initiative with North Korea he chose his old LDP ally Taku Yamasaki to broker a deal with North Korean counterparts in China. Japan's engagement in the denuclearisation talks in China (pertaining to North Korea) has also seen him relying on informal access. It is this use of two track diplomacy that has left many conservative Japanese bureaucrats fuming.

This non-conformist approach has also been reflected in the manner in which Koizumi is handling the agenda of his economic reforms. Japan's GDP has expanded by nearly 6 per cent over the past six months. Probably the basic reason has been Koizumi's decision not to handle every detail of complex financial issues and to permit technocrats to analyse policies and come up with courses of action without being suffocated by party bosses. Such an approach has helped him to take on, relatively successfully, the reforming of debt-laden banks and failing state corporations. This in turn has bolstered the Nikkei index which has risen roughly 50 per cent since historic lows in March 2003. Our policy-makers in Bangladesh need to study this course of action carefully.

Mr. Hiroshi Tsukamoto, the President of Japan External Trade Organisation told me that exports are expected to post double-digit growth this year in Japan, mostly because of China. This spurt in economic activity is going to ensure a decline in unemployment and a possible end to deflation in Japan.

This sort of optimism in the air is also persuading consumers to start spending again and economists are forecasting a strong GDP growth into 2005.

All these elements are contributing to the Japanese Prime Minister attaining a 'can-do' image throughout the country. He, in fact, appears to be gaining a 'cult following' among the increased number of younger Japanese lawmakers who have been able to enter the national scene with his active support.

He has already been Prime Minister for more than 37 months, but shadowy rival factions within the LDP have been unable to create any serious pressure on him. On the other hand, the rival Democratic Party of Japan appears to be in a difficult spot. It won 40 seats in the Lower House elections last fall, but has failed to really flex its muscles in any meaningful way.

It is probably this assurance of latent, strong support that has enabled Koizumi to take such a bold but controversial policy with regard to Japanese involvement in the Middle East. Japan's decision to send SDF personnel to Iraq has been contrary to its usual cheque-book diplomacy. They have gone before to East Timor and also to Cambodia, but this was the first time that SDF was deployed in a combat zone since World War II.

Herein lies a danger for Koizumi. The Prime Minister's efforts to be seen as a world leader might backfire if some of the SDF members are lost in action. In such a scenario, his popularity could plunge.

Things came to a head recently when a few Japanese NGO workers were kidnapped (later released unharmed). There was a lot of soul-searching. However, the current belief is that Japan's new posture in the Middle East is not inconsistent with its ambition to become a permanent member of the expanded Security Council.

Professor Masayuki Yamauchi of the University of Tokyo discussing the theme of the war in Iraq in the Foreign Press Centre indicated that such a decision was evoked probably out of the belief that Japan will have to take risks, stand up and be counted. It is this driving force that is leading Koizumi to play a more pro-active role not only in regional diplomacy but also in the pursuit of perceived national security interests beyond its borders.

Japan is going to enhance its economic inter-action with South Asia as part of Koizumi's new vision. This will include massive outlays of foreign direct investment in India. We need to be part of the extended process. We must not lose this opportunity of being part of a new awakening of Japan and its renewed involvement with the outside world. Bangladesh will need to intensify its current engagement with Japan.

Japan has been an important partner for Bangladesh since early 1972. Since then, she has been a true friend and has been actively engaged in assisting our economic development initiatives and in the building of our infrastructure. JICA has been closely associated in poverty reduction and human resources development. Mr. Kunimitsu Yoshinaga, the Vice President of JICA assured me that JICA would expand its activities in Bangladesh and include new areas like institutional development for human security promotion and empowerment of communities at the grassroots level. Similarly, Ambassador Kazuo Kodama, a senior official in the Asian Department of the Japanese Foreign Office, indicated that this desire to help has also led Japan to declare a revised policy of GSP for LDCs that has expanded the scope of duty and quota free export of items from Bangladesh to that country. It may be recalled in this context that Japan has also recently accorded to Bangladesh a debt relief package of $1.46 billion under a new debt relief scheme.

Japanese investment in Bangladesh ranks fourth among foreign investing countries, after the USA, the UK and Malaysia. Till now 120 projects with 100 per cent Japanese investment or as joint venture have been registered with the Board of Investment (BOI).

It is claimed that the total investment outlay of the projects is expected to exceed US dollar one billion. It appears that Japanese firms have expressed special interest in sectors like fertilizer, chemicals, water supply and sanitary equipment, preservation of sea food, LPG bottling, knit fabrics, automobile parts, plastic and leather products.

These are all positive factors, but there can be success only if we approach the situation carefully and seriously. We have to offer Japanese investors in real terms, incentives, liberal packages and opportunities. We should also take effective measures to remove the downsides of corruption and other factors that are tarnishing our image abroad.

We should also try to take greater interest about what is happening in Japan, just as we do in the case of Europe. We are discussing here the second largest economy of the world. The language barrier is probably one reason for our reduced curiosity, but this can be overcome by more students learning Japanese. The existing level of cultural cooperation between Japan and Bangladesh could be further intensified for this purpose. Such a pro-active paradigm could also include exchange of ideas and publication of journals and books on folklore, theatre, art and music. We can build on these elements and create a structure of excellence that transcends geographical borders.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador.