Hardline Hindutva or rudderless drift?

Its National Democratic Alliance has been reduced to a shadow of its former self in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra. In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA was slated to win a bare majority. That prospect has now receded. The BJP's allies have been reduced to a third of their strength before April.

How has the BJP come to terms with its rout? Frankly, it hasn't. Its topmost leaders were stunned into silence for a whole fortnight after the election results. When Mr L.K. Advani finally spoke publicly, his "explanation" was ludicrous: the BJP-NDA lost the mandate, but no other party/alliance won it.

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However, no amount of spurious reasoning about regional variations can negate the overarching truth that the NDA was trounced in 23 out of India's 28 states. The United Progressive Alliance enjoys the support of 320-plus Lok Sabha MPs -- a number the NDA couldn't dream of.

Mr Advani at least concedes that the NDA's policies fell short of the voter's expectations. Mr Vajpayee, the BJP's tallest leader, isn't even prepared to admit that. He also rules out the "Modi factor" (the impact of the Gujarat violence in numerous states). He claims the BJP lost because "we were too complacent" and "we didn't have a clear rival." He implicitly concedes that the BJP does well only when campaigning negatively.

The BJP personally attacked Ms Gandhi and other well-defined targets. Sober analysis shows the NDA lost millions of Muslim votes throughout India. Its share in the Muslim vote declined from 14 to 11 percent. (By contrast, the Samajwadi Party bagged 15 percent of Muslim votes, three times higher than its national vote share.)

Mr Vajpayee's "complacency" is question-begging. Nobody can accuse the BJP of not having campaigned energetically, marshalling all its forces and huge sums of money.

The BJP leadership lacks the intellectual ability to grasp the causes of the defeat. But can it devise a gameplan to stage a comeback? That looks doubtful. The party's focus on "tainted" Ministers isn't convincing given that Messrs Advani and M.M. Joshi and Ms Uma Bharati had serious charges on them, and that George Fernandes was re-inducted into the Cabinet without being cleared by the Tehelka inquiry. In the latest elections, the NDA apparently fielded 78 candidates with a criminal record.

Under its unquestioned organisational boss (Advani), the BJP will remain preoccupied with survival issues for months: how to set its house in order and keep the NDA going. The first task won't be easy.

In the entire Hindi belt, excluding Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the BJP's Lok Sabha tally has fallen to just 25 seats, of a total of 180. In pivotal UP and Bihar-Jharkhand, it's down to a pathetic 15. In UP, the BJP has fallen from 25 seats to just 10 (out of a total of 80). It has no revival strategy. In most Northern states, it doesn't know which social group to woo.

Voters in MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan will sober up after the hangover from the last Assembly elections wears out. The Maharashtra Assembly elections are around the corner. The adrenaline of Central power has energised the Congress-NCP. Ms Sonia Gandhi's campaign will further boost the alliance's chances against the BJP-Sena.

Nationally, the number of BJP allies is down to 8, from 24 two years ago. Of these, only the Shiv Sena is an ideological ally. The only active national-level ally is the JD(U), which has a miserable 8 seats (down from 30 seats). The largest ally, BJD, doesn't have a national position.

The NDA's main cementing force was Mr Vajpayee. Today, he is taking a back seat; it's unclear (but unlikely) that he will lead the NDA into the next election.

As if this weren't enough, the RSS-VHP are beginning to flex their muscles. They accuse the BJP of pussyfooting on Hindutva. They want a tough line on the "trident" issues (Ayodhya, Kashmir, and Uniform Civil Code).

With the UPA government in power, the Ayodhya litigation is likely to be opened up, making it difficult for the BJP to oppose a negotiated settlement. On Kashmir, the BJP cannot both oppose Article 370 and support the peace process with Pakistan. The national mood is against a UCC.

The litmus test for the BJP's strategic line-of-march will come with Mr Narendra Modi. Will the BJP sack him in keeping with its Gujarat MLAs' demand? Or will it keep him despite the disgrace and infamy he has brought? If it does the first, that will signal that it might, however reluctantly, move towards "moderation" -- despite Mr Advani's recent statement that the BJP's Hindutva is nothing "to be apologetic about".

If it chooses the second option, the BJP will further harden its ideological stance and become more brazenly communal, like the Jana Sangh.

The first choice spells one direction. The BJP will have to stop looking for cheap gimmicks. It will have to work hard to rebuild its political base and provide a responsible policy-based opposition.

The second option too entails a definite trajectory, one of marginalisation and conversion of the party into a pressure group, representing sectoral upper-caste interests. That's exactly what the Jana Sangh was, with its 20 to 30 Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP might go that way. There are organisational signs too: all its five newly appointed general secretaries are upper-caste people.

Of course, there is a third option: the BJP could just drift rudderlessly. Drift means decline. We will soon know which option the BJP chooses. But none of them will be pleasant.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.