Floods and farmers

Past efforts to contain floods
Following the worst floods of 1954, studies conducted led to the birth of East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) in 1959. The water wing of this parastatal was made responsible for not only containing flood but also development of water resources for irrigation to raise crops. The stress then was largely on the construction of large embankments with water control devices to facilitate drainage and irrigation. There was a policy shift following a study titled Land and Water Sector study conducted by the International Development Association (IDA) in 1972. This study laid more emphasis on small scale Flood Control and Drainage (FCD). But large projects, generally known as Flood Control Drainage and Irrigation (FCDI), continued.

Two schools of thought
In the wake of the floods of 1987 and 1988, two schools of thought emerged. The Eastern Waters study of the late eighties argued that floods are a fact of life and Bangladesh has to live with floods. The study was sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

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Other rich countries of G-7 group indicated interest in studies for a long-term plan to mitigate the devastating effect of recurring floods. The idea was to go beyond the immediate provision of emergency supplies of food, clothing, shelter, etc. Following a request from the government of Bangladesh, the World Bank agreed to coordinate the efforts of the countries having an interest in a long-term plan of action. On July 16, 1989, communiqué of the G-7 Summit in Paris endorsed the proposal and called on the international community to support the government and the people of Bangladesh in finding solutions to the flood problem. Flood Action Plan (FAP) was drawn up as a result of these developments.

FAP
The elements of FAP consisted of 11 main components and 15 supporting studies. The total cost of FAP amounted to $131.1 million. The studies generated lot of investment projects amounting to some billions of dollars. It is not known, how many of the projects have been implemented and with what results. All that is known is exactly 10 years after the FAP was endorsed, the floods hit again, and it was preceded by the devastating floods of 1998 and 1999.

Disaster management principles divide actions into three parts. First, the pre-disaster, which consists of warning for the people in areas likely to be badly affected. Second, during disaster stage, when not much action except emergency supplies are made available. Third, the post-disaster stage when rehabilitation work is undertaken. These are mainly in the fields of agriculture, infrastructure, and medical care where needed.

Floods of 2004
The newspaper reports indicate that the recent deluge has already affected 22.5 million people or about 14 percent of the total population. Thirty-five districts or about 55 percent of the total number of 64 districts have been affected, of which 17 districts have been very badly affected. Published information also indicates that 20,166 square miles, or about 37 percent of the total area of the country, have been affected by floods.

Damage to crops
The government has assessed the crop damage until July 26. The estimated damage for both crop and non-crop sector stands at Tk. 23 billion or about $367 million. The number of affected farmers is about 3.7 million. The major crops affected include Aus, Aman seedlings, B-Aman, T-Aman, jute, vegetables, and others. The non-crop damage includes livestock and poultry.

The total cultivated area submerged under water is said to be 0.69 million hectares, which constitutes 44 percent of the cultivated area of the districts affected by floods.

Crop damage in 1998 and 1999 floods
According to Bangladesh Economic Survey (2001), 3.37 million tons of food crops of 1.73 million hectares of land were damaged in 1998 floods. The total area under crops damaged in 1999 was only 0.12 million hectares and the production loss was 0.38 million tons. Some foreign news media predicted in 1998 that about one million people would perish by starvation. Nothing of the sort happened largely due to efficient management of agricultural rehabilitation programme (ARP). The government of the day allocated Tk. 300 million that resulted in unprecedented level of production of Boro and wheat crops. In addition to the government sources, different donors and private organisations contributed Tk. 92.9 million for ARP. Besides, 81 NGOs of Bangladesh spent Tk. 382.4 million for rehabilitation in the crop sector. The total amount spent in 1998 was Tk. 774.6. One million four hundred thousand farmers benefited from ARP in 1998. Seeds for Aman and wheat crops were imported from both India and Pakistan and made available to the farmers under ARP, which contributed to higher production of such crops.

ARP 2004
The Finance and Planning Minister publicly announced an ARP grant of Tk. 200 million. The Agriculture Minister is reported to have directed that each affected farmer would get required seed and fertilizers free of cost. Some cautionary signals, in the meantime, have appeared in the press. First, if seedlings of Aman are not distributed to the affected farmers and planted by September 15, 2004, few lakhs of farmers would die of starvation. Second, the programme to distribute seeds after flood waters recede would not be fruitful. It was asserted that the need was to provide cash for the farmers to buy seedlings. Others have emphasised the need for resorting to floating seedbed to raise seedlings.

Time is a critical factor
Aus may be treated as a lost crop in flood affected areas. However, Aus contributes but little to the total production of cereals. What about Aman? The high yielding varieties (HYV) of Aman are transplanted, for which seedlings are necessary. The sowing period for Aman is July-September. There are at least two big hurdles now. First, availability of quality seeds, which have location-specific acceptability to the farmers. Second, raising Aman seedlings will require at least 30-35 days. It is not known when the flood water will recede. In 1998, it took about 54 days. If God forbid, the same time as in 1998 is taken this year, Aman may also be a lost crop in the flood-affected areas. In that event, the total production loss on account of Aman and Aus may be well over 12 million tons of cereals. Can this be recouped by increased production of Boro and Wheat? It was done in 1998. It can even be done now provided ARP goes well. NGOs and the development partners will also need to join in the efforts at rehabilitation of farmers.

Seeds for Aman for next season
Where will the farmers get the supply of Aman seeds for the next year? This is a critical issue given the fact that all the seeds in flood affected areas have been lost or damaged. Can there be a quick assessment of the farmer's needs for Aman seeds? Can the shortfall be met by import from India? How much money will be needed?

Allocation under ARP 2004
Newspaper reports indicate that so far the amount allocated is only Tk. 20 million. Decision to allocate a further sum of Tk. 180 million has been taken. Bureaucratic red-tapeism may delay release and actual disbursement of funds. The time to act is now. Otherwise, all the honest intention of the government will be lost. The farmers will be left in the lurch.

AMM Shawkat Ali, PhD, is a former Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture.