The gathering storm

The move towards understanding

The leader of the four-party alliance, the Prime Minister, took the first step towards such a course of action. She wanted to meet the Leader of the Opposition. The offer was rejected by Sheikh Hasina who is yet to recover from the trauma of August 21. Her decision in this respect has been endorsed by other political parties with leftist leanings.

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The Prime Minister took the second move to meet with all political parties. This move came in the wake of the request of the leaders of business of the business community whom she had met last Thursday. Apart from this, the Prime Minister expressed her willingness to meet the political leaders during an exchange of views with the journalists. It may also be recalled that the diplomats of different countries had also emphasised the need for dialogue between the Leader of the Opposition and the Leader of the House.

Climate of understanding vitiated

Many newspaper reports and analysts in the electronic media looked at the issue of the climate of understanding and concluded that such a climate, if past events were of any indication, stood vitiated so that political understanding and accommodation appeared to be a remote possibility.

References have been made to the statement of the Prime Minister in the floor of the Jatiyo Sangsad (JS) on July 7, 2004. The statement followed a question raised in the JS on the death threat that Sheikh Hasina had received while attending an international conference in Istambul. As reported by the media, there was an element of skepticism in the statement of the Prime Minister. She, however, confirmed that the government would investigate the issue raised. Exactly 45 days after the statement was made, the grenade attack took place. It is now established that the attack aimed at killing Sheikh Hasina and all the frontline leaders of the AL who were with her on that day. The information published in the media also indicates that this was not the first time that attempts to assassinate Sheikh Hasina have been made. The political parties and other independent analysts hold the view that the government was not serious about ensuring the security of the Leader of the Opposition. This probably is the major reason why the government's offer of reconciliation was rejected.

The present trend of events

There is little doubt that the past events cast their ominous shadow on the present state of politics. The present trend of events appears to strengthen the perception of the opposition political parties that talks between them and the government would not lead to any fruitful results. Much of these stem from the way subsequent protest meetings were handled by the government, not to speak of the demand for impartial investigation into the carnage of August 21, 2004.

First, unreasonable and at times violent use of force by the police. Second, the reported rejection by a parliamentary standing committee of the proposal to adopt a mourning reference in its proceedings. Third, the rather belated decision to seek the assistance of Interpol. Fourth, unilateral decision to mount a judicial inquiry through a commission led by a judge of the High Court. Fifth, the refusal of the police to accept the first information report (FIR) filed by the AL leaders on the ground that the FIR had already been initiated by the police.

Rejection of one-member judicial commission

The political parties led by AL have rejected the one-member commission of inquiry on the ground that past experience has proved that no fruitful purpose was served by such inquiries. The Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) has already formed a six-member committee on the issue. The committee, consisting of eminent lawyers, has begun its investigation. At the other end, a former president, once a leading BNP leader, and an eminent jurist demanded that a three-member inquiry commission be formed led by a former chief justice to inquire into the incident. These trends of events appear to indicate lack of confidence in the initiatives taken by the government. Indeed, the question of credibility and image of the government are at stake. How will the government overcome this crisis of confidence?

The possible options

The possible options have also been reported in the press. It is said that in its attempt to overcome the issue of crisis of confidence, the government may choose either of the two options: (a) adopting a hard line, or (b) buying time to allow the dust to settle down. It is felt that if the current trends of events are any guide, it may not be an either-or-option but a combination of the two.

The above view finds its support from (i) continued unruly and at times violent behaviour of some of the policeman on duty, and (ii) the declaration given by the BNP to organise rallies and meetings in protest against the August 21 carnage. In any event, either of the options taken singly or in combination is likely to further worsen the political climate.

Consultation with former foreign secretaries

On the issue of whether or not to commission international inquiry, the Prime Minister is reported to have consulted some retired foreign secretaries. These secretaries, as reported in the press, did not favour the idea for reasons not reported in the press. The reaction of the Foreign Minister (FM) on this issue was also reported in the press. He was quoted to have said that there was no international investigation agency other than Interpol which also was responsible to assist the United Nations. There was a rather sarcastic remark of the FM which appeared in the press: "If the AL is interested in any special country to investigate, that is a different matter. We are not thinking in that line." It is not clear to which "special country" did the FM refer. Knowledgeable circles believe that the obvious reference was to our biggest neighbour. India had earlier offered to assist in investigation. The offer was turned down by the government.

What does Interpol do?

The website of Interpol containing the fact sheet is reproduced to provide the answer. "Interpol receives, stores, analyses, and circulates criminal data in cooperation with its member countries around the clock in its four official language (English, French, Spanish, and Arabic). Interpol deals only with international crimes; that is, crimes that involve two or more member countries. It does not deal with crimes planned and committed in just one country, or with a subsequent investigation if it is limited to one country."

A multi-pronged approach to terrorism adopted by Interpol involves, among others:

- increased information to member countries on terrorism groups and assistance to countries in the identification of suspected terrorists operating in their countries;

- support to member countries in building counter-terrorism capacity through training and analytical services;

- assistance to member countries in the event of terrorist incidents/investigations through the contribution of analytical and database support.

As things stand now, the AL wants the traumatic event of August 21 to be investigated impartially without any government involvement. The appearance of Interpol at government request is not acceptable to AL because, by its very charter, Interpol can only provide technical assistance. The task of investigation remains the responsibility of our police department. This department, by all accounts available, is ill-equipped to deal with such cases. What then is the answer? It is felt that the major responsibility in this regard lies with the government. The time is to act now before the gathering storm overtakes everything else.

AMM Shawkat Ali, PhD, is a former Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture.