The dilemma of a new 'oldest' nation

The ministry also released the results of another survey more or less at the same time focusing on a different grim sides of population statistics. The ministry announced that the fertility rate in Japan in 2005 was 1.25, lower than the figure of 1.29 recorded a year earlier. The figure virtually means that an average Japanese woman in her child bearing age is now giving birth to 1.25 babies, much lower than the figure needed to sustain country's current population level. This latest disclosure runs contrary to all earlier predictions. Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, for example, estimated in 2002 that the fertility rate was supposed to decline to 1.31 in 2005 before bouncing back. The institute also hinted that the population of Japan was supposed to drop below 100 million by the year 2050.

The extremely low fertility rate figure announced by the ministry, however, would mean that the population of Japan will decrease to less than 100 million nine years earlier than projected. As a result, the recent figures released by the ministry are stirring serious debate within the media, policy makers and concerned groups on what the contry now needs to do to check this disturbing trend.

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A number of research institutes in Japan that had long been working on population issues were in fact projecting this grim outcome for quite some time. In 2001, a private reaserch organisation known as Attractors Lab Co. estimated the birthrate for 2005 to be 1.25. The compnay also hinted that the rate would hit rock bottom 1.14 in 2022. This earlier projection now coincides with the figures released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

The issue of declining birthrate and an aging population has been the topic of heated discussions in Japan ever since projections in mid-1980s gave early warning of the problem and hinted that the country might be heading towards more trouble if the issue was not tackled in time. Though the Japanese government had taken numerous measures since then to encourage couples to have more children, none seem to have any significant impact on the people. As a result, a new soul searching is now on in Japan about the important question of how best to tackle the issue so that the danger signals the country is getting could be effectively by-passed to ensure that the society remains immune from serious social consequences of declining population. The decade of economic slowdown that compelled Japan to initiate drastic changes in working environment is partially blamed for this unexpected outcome.

The decade of economic downturn, known in Japan as the 'lost decade,' had compelled the government to focus solely on economic recovery, be it at the cost of sacrificing the important aspect of creating a much needed social harmony. While progress has been made recently in improving job situation, it has also resulted in swelling the ranks of part-time and temporary employees and other non-regular workers. This group of work force with less support of any solid cushion in times of crisis now represents one in every three members of Japanese workers and their number among younger generartion is much higher than the average. Compared to regular workers they earn much less and also lack stability in working condition. It is among men and women falling into this unhappy group of workers that the birth rate is significantly lower. The reason is not unclear at all.

A 2002 survey conducted by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on people in the 20-34 age group showed that while 40 percent of regular employees were married, the rate fell drastically to less than 10 percent for part-time and temporary workers. Uncertainty about the future and earnings that merely allow workers to survive are compelling many of them to keep a distance from the possibility of starting a family life. This is probably a natural tragic outcome of a reform initiative that put virtually all the emphasis on a singualrly important goal of ensuring economic recovery, forgetting about the important aspect that the end goal of recovery is to ease the burden of uncertainty that people are now compelled to shoulder.

Another area that Japan needs to improve to ensure that a declining birth rate in an ageing society is effectively controlled is to create a right environment for working mothers so that they are able to continue their work. A recent survey had shown that even in companies with a system of child care and pegnanncy leave, about 70 percent of women quit job on becoming mothers. A number of surveys and studies conducted recently by various groups give clear indication that the Japanese society is slowly waking up to the call to tackle the problem. A recent finding of the National Institute of Population Research and Social Security Research suggested that a key to tackling Japan's low fertility rate is also to have men share more work of bringing up kids.

More than 80 percent of child bearing responsibilities are now being shouldered by wives alone.

The low fertility rate coupled with the aging of the society would eventually lead to the acute shortage of work forces in Japan needed to sustain the necessary structure of an advanced society. The government is working on various options needed to tackle the problem. For the old people alone Japan in coming days would need a large work force of helping hands that the society is simply unable to provide. As a result, recruiting such workers from countries with surplus human resources is one option that Japanese policy makers these days are giving serious consideration. But the issue of foreign workers in Japan remains a contentious subject. While the foreign and economy ministry officials have pressed the government to accept foreign workers, the justice and health and labour ministries remain cautious, citing the social cost of accepting foreign workers, such as frictions with local communities.

But as time runs out for Japan to address the issues related to declining population and the aging society, experts believe it is now a matter of time for the door of Japan to be opened to workers from other Asian nations. Hence, it is also time for countries like Bangladesh to initiate serious studies that would look at the possibilities of how they would be able to best utilise the situation to their own benefit.