Back to the future

Now seems to be no exception to the general rule. We have the most important election in a generation coming up in the next six months, but there is zero consensus and zero apparent likelihood of consensus as to the necessary reform of the election laws, and we appear to be stuck with an election commissioner who, it seems safe to say, is so thoroughly compromised that he cannot possibly oversee credible elections.

The country seems to be descending into total chaos and confusion, with pitched street battles with law enforcement the order of the day, not only on the part of the opposition, but also on the part of garment workers, and before that common citizens who wanted nothing more than a steady power and water supply.

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Nevertheless, the sad truth is that there is never a good time to ignore the long-term future, and that however bad things might appear and however little it seems we can afford the luxury of long-term planning, there is no alternative.

Indeed, one of the problems we have faced as a country since our inception is lack of really serious long-term planning that takes into account all the relevant variables (the good intentions of various five-year plans notwithstanding).

Part of the leadership deficit we have faced since independence (and before) is the evident lack of imagination on the part of our leaders, such that even when ostensibly planning for the future, they have made grotesque errors and miscalculations.

The development of Dhaka city is a prime example of this. A city of less than a million people in 1971, it has grown into one of the world's mega-cities, with a population certainly in excess of 12 million and in all likelihood closer to 15 million. At no time in the past or present has any government ever really comprehended the nature and extent of this exponential growth and planned accordingly.

Part of the problem was that we have never encouraged the growth of urban centres outside of Dhaka to which rural populations can migrate and find work. It is true that, with the population in the last 35 years mushrooming from 80 million to 140 million, figuring out a way to deal with the growth and the industrialisation and urbanisation that accompanied it was never going to be easy, but a little bit of prescient planning might have been a good idea.

It is in this context that I would like to raise an issue that we never really focus on in Bangladesh, and that is the environment. The environment is a huge issue that does not get enough play in this country. Thus, the questions of pollution of our water bodies and flooding and the balance to be drawn between economic development and preserving the environment are generally not as large a part of the policy debate as they should be.

We at The Daily Star are perhaps as guilty as anyone else on this issue. Star reporter Pinaki Roy, among others, has done some excellent reporting on the subject, and we do have a weekly environment page, and do occasionally print other pieces on the issue, but it is not enough.

Parenthetically, in more than 100 columns, this is the first time that I am addressing the issue in print.

The simple if unpalatable fact that we need to focus on is that if we don't get a handle on our environmental woes, then all of our other gains in other areas will be moot, and we risk losing everything.

The fact of the matter is that there is plenty we can do, but it requires appreciating the gravity of the situation and planning accordingly. We have an advantage in that right now we are not too industrialised so our energy needs and carbon emissions are not as high as elsewhere. Also, being

where we are, we are in a good position to learn from others and get a head start in implementing best practices.

As we industrialise and develop, we need to think about how to do it with the least environmental cost. We need to be innovative. Two of the best initiatives of the current government have been environmental: the poly-bag ban and the introduction of CNG as a fuel. Credit where credit is due. But we need many more such initiatives and ideas.

Other areas we need to focus on before it is too late are protecting our water supply from industrial effluents and other wastes and air quality. The pollution generated by coal and gas-fired generators should be taken into consideration, for instance, when thinking about how best to employ our natural resources and whether or not it might be a good idea to trade them for hydro-power in return.

Next week I will try to address the issue of global warming in the context of the cataclysmic potential effects for Bangladesh, and what we need to be doing about it.

Unless something else catastrophic occurs in the immediate present that causes me to once again ignore the long-term future for the crisis du jour, that is.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.