Will govt-Maoist dialogue end Nepal's woes?

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist supremo "Prachanda" achieved significant progress in their first meeting and the development is being seen as a remarkable step towards a lasting settlement of the problems that have plagued the picturesque Himalayan country for long.

Recently, a new chapter in the history of Nepal was written as King Gyanendra had to bow down to people's demand for him to give up absolute power and restore the representative government which he had scrapped in a bid to consolidate monarchy. This development was followed by a decision of the parliament to clip the powers of the King turning the monarchy once again into a ceremonial one. Recently the parliament also formalised the decisions taken earlier.

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Now, close on the heels of all these democratic steps, the government and the radical leftists, who together worked against King Gyanendra under a loose alliance despite their differences on a variety of policies, are engaged in complex dialogue on the future of the nation. Following preparatory talks, the highest level discussions went off fairly well raising hopes that the long suffering country is now seeing light at the end of the tunnel. The decade-old Maoist insurgency is also telling heavily on Nepal, which was embroiled in a pro-democracy agitation. Problems centering the Maoists stalked the nation even after the glorious democratic victory against the King in the form of his capitulation to peoples demand.

The Koirala-Prachanda talks provided the basis for settling Nepal's lingering woes although much still remains to be done as the issues involved are contentious and may defy early solutions. Nevertheless, things seem to be moving in the right direction as the government and the Maoists seem to be sincere in their efforts to get to the bottom of the crises and work for a way out in the matters where they differ.

All eyes were focused on the talks between prime minister Koirala and the elusive Maoist chief "Prachanda" as the dialogue was unprecedented and took place against the background of the success of the people's movement against the King, who did everything possible to cling to his absolute power that came to an end through massive agitation for several days. The talks were also cynosure of national and international quarters because the government and the radicals hold somewhat diametrically opposite positions on certain vital subjects such as the governance of the nation, the pattern of the government and the future of the monarchy. Obviously, the government wants a Westminster system of democracy while the Maoists, in principle, believe in the one-party communist system.

Secondly, and in a way more importantly for Nepal, the prime minister and some parties in the present seven-party alliance coalition favour continuation of a monarchy devoid of any executive power, but the ultras oppose monarchy tooth-and-nail in any form. They even want trial of King Gyanendra for allegedly amassing wealth in the poverty-ridden country and for the atrocities committed during the pro-democracy movement. The government is not as tough as the radicals on this matter although it has gone all out to strip the King of key powers including control over the armed forces and automatic accession to the throne on family lines, as had existed earlier. How the two sides resolve the differences is definitely an area of interest.

The outcome of the first round of the highest level dialogue has surpassed the expectations of many since the talks were devoted to crucial issues without wasting time on formalities. Concrete decisions could be reached on several seemingly intractable points, which had defied any solution a few years ago when democratic governments, prior to King Gaynendra's taking over of power, had held talks with the Maoists. An eight-point understanding has been arrived at to get the country out of the crisis. The two sides agreed to dissolve the parliament, form an interim government and hold elections for a constituent assembly to frame a new constitution. Indeed, these are big achievements given their differences on some matters. Elections for a body to redraft the constitution is a key demand of the Maoists, who demand abolition of the monarchy. There is hardly an iota of doubt about the positive results of the meeting between the two tops leaders. Indeed, this is a big achievement.

However, some thorny issues may still create problems in further progress of the implementation of the decisions which were agreed upon in principle. First, the radicals want dissolution of the parliament within a month and elections to the constituent assembly by April, 2007. The government seems ambivalent on the timing of both as no clear confirmation was available from its side. Secondly, prime minister Koirala reportedly said that monarchy may continue just as a ceremonial one in line with Britain or Japan whereas the Maoists are totally against its existence. Nepal's powerful democratic neighbour, India, have may an influence on these matters and prime minister Koirala paid a visit to New Delhi before talks with Prachanda. His talks with Indian leaders primarily dwelt on bilateral economic and other assistance to Nepal. India is understood to be favouring titular monarchy, but also gives the impression that it is upto the people of Nepal to decide on the issue.

Kathmandhu's another big neighbour is communist China, which seeks to maintain a distance from the internal affairs of Nepal. However, its interests in the developments of this strategically important tiny neighbour can not be overlooked. Nepalese in general were for continuation of ceremonial monarchy like in the last years of assassinated King Birendra, but many of them turned hostile to the throne because of the lust for power and wealth of present King Gyanendra, who also came down mercilessly on mass agitation. This issue may pose problems for the government, whose seven partners do not necessarily hold the same views on this matter.

But the crux of the matter is that the two sides are showing welcome signs of accommodation and this has made the progress possible. The government has given certain big concessions while the radicals, too, have shown readiness to come out in the open. "Prachanda" is now behaving like a regular politician and the ultras are ready to share power in the interim government. The truce reached earlier is holding well. However, the fate of the arms with the ultras and their control over vast areas in the countryside may cause irritation towards understanding when they get down to brass tracks. But the bottom line is that both are demonstrating sincerity and a willingness to resolve the problems as both are also believed to be under pressure from the people to rid the nation of the crises since the King is no longer a stumbling block.

The progress in the Koirala-Prachanda talks has been described rightly by most as "historic" even though the road ahead is still bumpy. The omens are quite encouraging and the government and Maoists need to seize this opportunity to end Nepal's woes, failing which, both will be accountable to their people. The parliament has gone into recess to allow the new developments to take proper shape. Hopefully, both sides will live upto the expectations despite the fact that they are yet to deal with certain vexing issues.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.