Russia and China teaming up in Central Asia?

The recently concluded fifth summit of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is privy to those subtle changes which may subsequently result in a tectonic shift in the region's strategic landscape. Comprising Kazakstan, Kyrghistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the SCO has been enhancing its role as part of a conscious effort by its most important members, Russia and China to assert themselves in the region.

True, both Moscow and Beijing were supportive of the US decision to oust the Taliban regime from Afghanistan and also extended some assistance to the US -- reflecting not only their own concern about the proliferation of terrorist forces in their backyard but also because they wanted to improve their bilateral ties with the world's most powerful country. However, the Bush administration with its proclivity for unitateralism tended to take such support for granted.

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But what perturbed both Russia and China most was the blatant US attempt to entrench itself in Central Asia -- even after the fall of Taliban -- on the pretext that it needed to establish bases in the region as a part of its world-wide fight against terrorism. Notwithstanding this explanation, both Russia and China were left in little doubt that the US had in the meantime expanded its agenda well beyond the war on terror and was planning to extend its influence in a region that had huge energy resources and was important also geo-strategically.

This common concern with growing US penetration into central Asia -- a region traditionally perceived as a natural area of influence by both Russia and China -- led to a remarkable strengthening of Sino-Russian ties, both bilaterally and in the context of multilateral organisation, such as SCO. The two countries had already expressed their common resolve "to strengthen their strategic coordination." There is evidence of this in the staggering growth in bilateral trade which has registered a jump over 37 percent over the previous year's total. Even more significant has been the coordination in the defence field including joint exercises of their armed forces. Apparently both the countries have been in their real earnestness coordinating their Central Asian policies to oppose the expansion of US influence in the area.

To this end they have encouraged those countries that permitted the US to establish bases to now close them down, as Uzbekistan has already done; others will be persuaded to follow the suit with the incentives of political support, economic assistance and trade concessions to keep them out of the US sphere of influence. There will however be tough competition because the US also would adopt the same strategy to keep its bases intact in Central Asia.

An energy-hungry Japan's assertiveness to support the US polices in the region has instinctively helped bring Russia and China closer. Both are, to an extent, affected by Japan's nakedly pro-US policies in the Pacific.

While Russia is never oblivious of its 1905 defeat at Japanese hands and continues to keep under her occupation the Kuril Islands of Japan, the Chinese also bitterly remember the episode of Manchuria's occupation during early last century.

Moreover, the energy issues and politics are deeply entwined in the dynamics at play in the region. Russia's current economic boom is driven by massive earnings from its world-wide energy sale. China, acutely short of energy resources, however, requires a huge quantity of it for her economy. Russia and central Asia are the closest and most declared source of energy for China which has been naturally pushing for strategic pipelines to bring in gas and oil from these countries. Obviously there is real possibilities of a clash of interests between those of the West and China.

The crisis over Iran's nuclear program has also given both Russia and China added clout for they are also veto-wielding members of the UNSC where the fate of Iran's nuclear ambitions will be finally decided. They are convinced that the Bush administration's concern in Iran issue goes far beyond Iran's nuclear program and is meant to bring about a regime change -- a proposition both Russia and China straggly oppose. They are part of the international coalition that opposes Iran's nuclear program but defends its right to civilian nuclear technology.

On the eve of the SCO summit, Russian President Putin stated that "the SCO has gained influence and now evolved into a powerful regional organisation and a significant stability factor across the Eurasian continent." Whether or not it is so, the SCO is by now steering ahead of fighting its declared evils of "terrorism, separatism and extremism" and is now engaged in "efficient mechanisms of regional integration and benefit from their intrinsic edge in energy and other natural resources."

As the SCO comes of age there is new polarisation in and out of the SCO. For example, out of the countries enjoying observer status, Iran's President Ahmed Nejad stole the limelight in the just concluded summit by asserting his viewpoints most convincingly before at least two world leaders whose countries would matter in decision making with regard to Iran's nuclear future.

Another important observer, India, was conspicuous with its low-profile representation. It is presumed that Indian Prime Minister Monmohan Singh's decision to stay away from the summit was meant to a reassure the US legislators, in the process of reviewing the US-India nuclear deal that India was still "playing ball" with the US. But whatever the shape the SCO takes in future, its commitment to protect Eurasia from the clutches of the outsiders is confirmed beyond any shade of doubt.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.