Why this volte-face?

He said that three general elections had been held peacefully, fairly, and impartially under the existing CTG system. If the opposition were serious about reforms in the CTG and the EC, they could include those reform proposals in their election manifesto for the forthcoming general election. And if the people voted them to power, they could implement those reforms. He also posed the question as to why the immediate past AL government did not carry out those reforms during their tenure, and passed the onus on the BNP-led alliance government. Further, he went so far as to advise the civil society leaders not to meddle in issues like reforming the CTG and the EC.

Tarique Rahman's ruling out the possibility of acceptance of the AL-led opposition proposals for reforms in the CTG and the EC by the alliance government confirms the recent statements of the prime minister in some public meetings where she stated that she did not find any reason for a dialogue (with the opposition).

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The above stand of the ruling BNP runs counter to the prime minister's proposal in parliament on February 28 for the formation of a committee, comprising members of the ruling BNP and the main opposition AL, to discuss the AL-led opposition coalition proposals for reforms and devise a fair procedure to ensure holding of free and fair elections.

Now the question is: what has caused the volte-face in the ruling BNP thinking? This may be attributed primarily to the following factors.

First, BNP thinks that the general people consider a retired chief justice (CJ) as the appropriate person to head the CTG. This has convinced the BNP-led ruling alliance that the opposition proposal for reforming the existing constitutional arrangement which entitles the CJ who retired last to be the first choice for appointment as the chief adviser (CA) to the CTG, will gain little or no ground.

Second, the fourteenth amendment to the constitution raising the retirement age of the judges of the Supreme Court was a calculated move by the ruling BNP to make sure that the post of the CA to the CTG goes to KM Hassan (as the last retired CJ), who, before appointment as a judge, served as the secretary of the international committee of the BNP during the regime of Ziaur Rahman. It would, therefore, be folly for the ruling BNP to agree to formally discuss this issue with the opposition to undo their long-term plan of ensuring the appointment of their man as the CA to the CTG for holding election to the ninth parliament.

Third, the BNP was in agreement with the opposition demand for reforming the EC and strengthening it. Yet, the BNP-led alliance government proceeded with the appointment of the incumbent chief election commissioner (CEC) and the two election commissioners (ECs), ignoring the opposition demand for making appointment to those posts in consultation with the opposition parties.

Now the BNP is fully convinced that the incumbent CEC and the two ECs are absolutely loyal to the alliance government and any formal dialogue with the opposition to reform the EC will eventually centre on the proposal for replacing them by persons who are acceptable both to the government and the opposition. This would be suicidal for the BNP-led ruling alliance. That is why the three powerful ministers, who favoured the resignation of the CEC for mismanaging the EC, are now keeping quiet, and two other ministers recently met the CEC to assure him that he was on the right track.

Fourth, a closer look into the recent statements made by the law minister shows that the government is not interested to bring any reforms in electoral laws. Rather, it feels that reforms in the electoral laws, if any, may be made by the CTG following the precedent set by the immediate past CTG.

Fifth, a closer look into the prime minister's proposal in parliament on February 28 shows that she actually meant constituting a bipartisan committee comprising members of the ruling BNP and the main opposition AL. The AL accordingly suggested the names of its members in the committee. But the BNP complicated the issue by including two names of Jamaat-e-Islami and IOJ, the junior partners in the BNP-led ruling alliance, fully knowing that these two names would not be acceptable to the AL. The AL has in writing objected to those two names. But BNP is yet to formally reply to the AL's letter. This is because of the fact that the BNP cannot afford to displease Jamaat-e-Islami and IOJ by withdrawing their members from the committee. So, the BNP considers it wise not to go for the dialogue.

Sixth, the AL is a pro-election party. Top leaders of the party have been holding meetings with grassroots workers to know their minds and boost their morale to gear up party activities for winning the forthcoming parliamentary election by the AL-led coalition. The BNP is aware that the AL will find it difficult to withstand the pressure of the party workers and probable candidates not to boycott the forthcoming general election, even if there were no reforms in the CTG and the EC.

Last, but not the least, the recent assurance given by the Jatiya Party chairman HM Ershad to join the BNP-led four-party alliance has emboldened the BNP. So, the much talked-about reform proposals have been sidelined by the latest politics of expanding electoral alliance, prompting political analysts "to believe that the possibility of bringing the reforms is slim during the tenure of the four-party alliance government."

Whatever might the thinking of the BNP, the whole nation is anxiously waiting to see a dialogue between the ruling BNP and the main opposition AL to overcome the present political crisis. It, however, needs no repetition that the onus to hold the dialogue is obviously on Prime Minister Khaleda Zia who in her parliamentary speech on February 28 invited the opposition to dialogue.

Now, the question arises: what is the alternative to talks? The opposition has already stated that they will boycott the polls if their reform proposals are not carried out. So what happens if the AL-led coalition boycotts the forthcoming election? There may not be an election in that case.

And, if election is held without the participation of the AL-led coalition, that election will not receive national and international credibility and acceptance. In short, there is no alternative to formal talks between the ruling BNP and the main opposition AL to arrive at a minimum consensus on the reform proposals for holding the next general election peacefully, fairly, and impartially.

M. Abdul Latif Mondal is a former Secretary to the government.