A test case for the 'new Middle East'

Another strange phenomenon of the conflict is the highly dubious role of the only superpower, claiming to be the referee not only in this case but everything concerning the Middle East, now undergoing a transformation in a new mould to fit seamlessly into its agenda to dominate the region without any opposition.

Ms Condoleezza Rice, while talking to the Lebanese prime minister recently, made no bones about her country's intentions and bluntly dismissed Lebanon's pleas for an immediate cease-fire. She insisted that what the US is looking for is to work for the evolution of a durable "new Middle East." Lebanon is apparently a test case of what shape and contour that Middle East of liking to the US and Israel should look like to the power brokers in Washington and Tel Aviv.

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Since the end of the Second World War, when commercial exploitation and marketing of oil became the principal US interest in the region, Washington has relentlessly tilted at all windmills to ensure the political forces in the region are not arranged against its monopoly of the region's oil. Israel was precisely created as the West's strategic outpost to keep a strict watch on the region's political developments vis-a-vis its oil wealth.

The shock of the 1973 oil embargo spearheaded by a patriotic King Faisal of Saudi Arabia and for which he was soon made to pay with his life factored in another ploy of the US policy for the region. That was and still is to divide the Arab world and especially atomise any country likely to threaten fortress Israel.

The neo-con strategists have succeeded by and large in taking care of the "troublesomes" amongst the Arab countries. Egypt, the most powerful among the Arab countries, was cherry-picked when it was induced to sign unilateral peace with Israel -- thus eliminating a major sling that could bother Israel.

Then, with the elimination of Saddam Hussein from Iraq, the last country potentially capable of encumbering Israel's rise to the position of a regional bully has been effectively dealt with. That leaves only Syria -- with its wings already clipped -- in the Arab world. Iran, a non-Arab country with the stigma of Bush's Axis of Evil label is routinely denounced along with Syria as the backer of Hizbollah.

While Washington may have succeeded in browbeating the Arab states not to challenge the rising tide of Israel's power, non-state entities such as Hamas, Hizbollah and Moqtada al-Sadr's outfit in Iraq have not only filled the vacuum of opposition to Israel, but have become powerful enough in their own right.

These entities have become enormously popular because of the grass-roots support cultivated by them on the strength of their social welfare programs. The Arab street is enthralled by the array of the services rendered by the likes of Hizbollah and Hamas that stand out in marked contrast to the contempt shown by the corrupt Arab regimes for their deprived underclass. That is why Hamas and Hizbollah continue to grow to the consternation of their enemies in the US and Israel.

The "new Middle East" Ms Rice is hawking with such fanfare remains only in US and Israeli blueprints for a region cleansed of all popular resistance movements. That would consist only of Arab regimes -- a motley collection of monarchies, autocracies, and sham democracies.

The "new Middle East" of US-Israeli vision has no room in it for a genuine democracy such as Hamas, which is entitled to run the Palestinian government on the basis of its overwhelming popular mandate. The US would rather prefer the government to be run by the discredited but pliable PLO in its place.

Lebanon is being pulverised with ruthlessness not seen since the razing of Dresden during the Second World War to sow the fear of Israel in the hearts of Arab rulers and warn them that their countries could likewise be shredded if they do not deal with their popular resistance movements on the guidelines suggested by Tel Aviv and Washington.

For cosmetic diplomacy, the US is falling back on the tried and failed method of energising its trusted allies such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, all beset with actual and potential threat by Hamas and Hizbollah-like grass-roots movements in their own domain, to help rein in Hizbollah in Lebanon. But there are signs that Hizbollah will so easily be cowed. Rather the Arab world is finding its new hero in Sheikh Nasrullah, the Hizbollah leader in Lebanon.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.