Can the Pakistan opposition dent ruling citadel?

The interest is not because of any chance of the collapse of the government, but because of the very fact that the different political parties, cutting across the divides, have reached unity on the anti-government platform.

The fate of the no-confidence motion, which is expected any day, is more or less a forgone conclusion because of the comfortable majority of the ruling circle in the national assembly. There is hardly any possibility that the motion will succeed. But the initiative of the fractious opposition has come as a somewhat unpleasant surprise to the government because of the simple reason that the opponents are showing signs of coming together despite their many differences.

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This is all the more significant because the country is scheduled to hold elections late next year, both for the parliament and the legislative assemblies, as well as for choosing the all powerful president. The president is chosen by the members of the national parliament and provincial assemblies. The incumbent president, General Pervez Musharraf, easily won the last time, as his supporters are in the majority in both the assemblies.

Pakistan's political scenario is not very exciting but is heating up slowly centering around next years general elections. The unity of the two exiled former prime ministers, and their vow to "restore democracy," has introduced a new element of interest in the scenario.

Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, after their long discussions in London three months ago, decided to work together on a "charter of democracy" and are seeking to chalk up a plan in that direction. Both were two-time prime ministers of Pakistan and both were removed from power before the expiry of their terms.

They have also decided to return home to lead the campaign against the authority of President Musharraf. The otherwise uninteresting political scene in the country was enlivened by the joint statement of the former political foes turned allies.

Their unity, and the vows to return home notwithstanding, there is little chance of their coming back to Pakistan in the near future because of a variety of factors. Yet, the very fact that the leaders of the two major political parties -- the Pakistan People's party(PPP) and the Muslim League -- have finally achieved unity is already impacting positively for the opposition.

Not unexpectedly, Pervez Musharraf has brushed aside any such influence because of the Benazir-Nawaz understanding, as he says "corrupt" politicians have no chance of winning public support. Evidently, he is referring to the charges of corruption against the two former premiers, and their close relations and associates, when they were in power.

But his comments about them are unlikely to deter Benazir and Sharif from attempting to embark on a new course of agitation. However, both are handicapped by not being able to return home. Some Western democracies have opined that both leaders should be allowed to take part in politics in Pakistan ahead of the elections to make the balloting meaningful, but the government remains somewhat ambiguous on this point. President Musharraf often says that the law will take its own course, meaning that both Benazir and Nawaz are likely to be arrested if they return home.

The political landscape of Pakistan has gone through drastic changes since the two leaders left the country. The national elections that followed the death of former military ruler Gen. Ziaul Haq, in a mysterious plane crash in 1988, brought Benazir to power, but her term was abruptly cut short when her government was sacked by the largely ceremonial president on charges of mismanagement and corruption.

Midterm polls saw Nawaz Sharif coming to the helm, but he, too, faced the same fate, and power, once again, went back to Benazir through balloting. This time, too, she was dismissed midway through her term, and elections brought her bitter political rival Nawaz Sharif, again, as prime minister with a big majority.

Aware of the constitutional provision of the ceremonial president's authority to sack elected governments, Nawaz amended the constitution, taking advantage of a two-thirds majority in parliament, and scrapped that power of the president. But little did he know that he would not be able to complete his term as the problem came from another direction.

He was toppled in a bloodless military coup in October1999, bringing army chief Gen. Musharraf to power in a country bedeviled by undemocratic rule. Sharif was found guilty of many charges, but was sent from prison to exile in Jeddah, after mediation by the Saudi Arabia and the United States. On the other hand, Benazir faced several corruption charges and she chose to remain abroad, evidently fearing arrest if she returned home.

The PML suffered a major split, with most of those deserting Nawaz taking a pro-Musharraf stance, and the PPP, too, was also divided on a small scale. Gen. Musharraf organised national elections before the expiry of the three year time limit given by the Supreme Court verdict that had validated his coup. The polls were won by pro-government politicians. The opposition, consisting mainly of the PPP and the PML Nawaz), sought to keep the pot boiling but without much success. Musharraf and his supporters faced little challenge.

A six-party Islamic alliance withdrew support from the president on the issue of his shedding of his uniform. Political realignments are discernible and it is in this context that the two former prime ministers, and some other parties, have decided to bring a no-confidence motion in the national assembly.

Musharraf says that he has brought about enormous changes since taking power, and the cup of democracy in Pakistan is now 99 percent full with polls at federal and lower levels. This statement is contested by the opposition, and many others, because the key person, who is the president himself, remains unelected, and is still in uniform of the army chief.

However, the president is credited with success, particularly in foreign policy, steering the country at a difficult time in the wake of the Afghan crisis. The economy, led by former finance minister and present premier, Shaukat Aziz, improved remarkably and corruption is also much less.

Whether the president will go for another term, following the expiry of his present tenure late next year, remains unclear. Should he decide to run, it is also unclear whether the present legislatures, or the new ones after the coming polls, will elect a new president.

One interpretation of the constitution given by government circles is that it is possible that the he may be elected by the existing ones just before their term is over. But this is being contested by critics, and the issue remains debatable.

In any case, Pakistan's opposition parties are seeking to challenge the ruling circles in a more determined way, despite their weakness in mounting a strong movement, and the motion against the government is viewed in that context, rather than effectively seeking to end the Shawkat Aziz government.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.