Japan-China relations on the mend with Abe?

Koizumi, regrettably, could not have friendly relations either with China or South Korea. Although Koizumi was very popular in Japan, he has been perceived by its neighbours as the person who did not bother to have good relations with his neighbouring countries. His regular visits to the Yakusuni shrine were an affront to China and South Korea.

Although he attempted to explain his visits saying this was his way of honouring the Japanese dead soldiers, but the fact remains that the shrine also buried the war criminals of the Second World War. Koizumi seemed to be somewhat insensitive to the views of his neighbours. His foreign policy was directed solely towards strengthening good relations with the US. The fact that he was close to Washington did not please China. In fact, it alarmed China.

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Abe did not follow the traditional path of his predecessors. He broke the tradition by not visiting Washington first upon his appointment as the new premier. He paid a visit to China and South Korea instead of Washington. This shows palpably that he is determined to mend Japan's relations with China and South Korea.

Abe was welcomed in China. Koizumi tried to visit China but was not welcome there. After a gap of five years a Japanese prime minister has visited China and this is quite a remarkable achievement for Abe. After the visit, on October 8, the leaders of China and Japan issued a statement saying they had been able to get over past animosities.

Why did Abe visit China?
First, the announcement by North Korea to conduct a test of nuclear weapons was taken seriously by Japan. Japan is very much concerned about its national security. The majority of the Japanese believe that North Korea may not hesitate to attack Japan, a close ally of Washington, if the North Korean regime is destabilized by Washington. Japan knows well that that the only country that has leverage and influence with North Korea is China. Good relations with China will pay political dividends for Japan.

Second, China is a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council and has a major say in all global issues. It is noted that Japan's bid to become a permanent member of the Security Council last year, supported strongly by the US, was lost because of China's reservation. China wanted to see reforms in the UN in other areas, not necessarily in the composition of the Security Council. Japan was severely disappointed because it cannot play a role in global affairs, despite the fact that Japan is not only one of the largest contributors of funds to the UN but also the second largest economy in the world. Friendly relations with China pay in the long run, after all.

Third, China and Japan have some disputes over sites in the East China Sea. The sites are known to be potentially oil-rich areas. Without trust and confidence, no bilateral disputes can be resolved. Prime Minister Abe's visit to China is seen as one of the confidence-building measures in improving relations with China.

Fourth, China's economic growth has continued at an astonishing speed for decades and it has had far-reaching impact on other Asian countries. With the economic growth, it has become a military power and may dominate the region strategically in the coming decades, challenging the supremacy of the US. Now Japan is fully aware of this fact, although a few years back Japan was not convinced of China's rise because its people in the countryside remain poor. Friendly relations with China will provide Japan with a diplomatic edge in addressing regional and global issues.

Finally, China and Russia are getting closer politically and economically via-a-vis the US. China and Russia are members of the Shanghai Cooperation, set up in 2001 with four other countries of Central Asia. This organization is believed to work as a counterweight to halt the increasing influence of the US in the backyard of Russia. Already the US military base from Uzbekistan has been removed with the support of China and Russia. Japan, a close ally of Washington, does not want to be in the bad books of Russia and China. Russia since the Second World War has occupied some islands, claimed by Japan. Japan needs to have good relations with both China and Russia.

It looks as though it is not only Japan that wants close relations with both China and South Korea. Both China and North Korea also want more constructive relations with Japan. It is a two-way traffic. Therefore Abe should be prudent enough to realize this need of the hour and strengthen ties with Japan's neighbours. For the peace and stability of the region, all the countries need to remove past animosities and move forward to a new environment of political and economic architecture.

Abe, representing a generational change, wants to bring some dynamism to foreign and domestic policies. Abe needs to improve the climate of foreign investment to create jobs and prosperity. If relations with China are good, foreign investment is likely to follow. It seems that his visit to China is good news to all countries, including Bangladesh.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.