North Korea does it

Japan claims to be the most threatened by the military capabilities of North Korea -- an area that had been in Japanese occupation until the Second World War and where anti-Japanese sentiment is alive. The threat inherent in this post-explosion situation is likely to be perceived differently by different countries.

For the US, it punctures its vast prestige and influence; it will no longer be able to do as it wishes; the deterrent power it had stands degraded somewhat. China's regret and disapproval, though genuine, is more for the record. Even Pakistan and India have made their disapproval known, though it is a sin that they themselves had committed only 8 years ago.

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South Korea's official establishment is formally among those who feel themselves to be in danger from North Korea's nuclear capability, though this alienation from North Korea is far less serious among the people in the South, who appear to put more stock in pan-Korean Nationalism. No one else in Asia, except anti-nuclear campaigners, will feel threatened by North Korea's bomb. After all, North Korea is a small country that is not averse to most Asian countries. All its militancy is directed at Japan that had mistreated it so badly in the past that its scars are still visible. It has not forgotten the war in 1950s the US led against it for purely cold war reasons. It is friendly to Russia and China for historical reasons; they had also come to its aid in 1950s.

What concerns Asians the most is the Japanese reaction to it and to a smaller extent, South Korea's. These two powers might opt for building their own atomic weapons. South Korea's behaviour in atomic research had raised the hackles of IAEA experts at one stage. But the matter was somehow resolved, even if it was not hushed up. North Korea having gone nuclear, the common people in the South are not likely to become too anti-DPRK. But all that will assume a different aspect if Japan is persuaded to change its peace constitution that outlaws war for Japan and becomes an atomic power. Then, the people of the South who share the anti-Japanese sentiment with their Northern brethren, may more easily acquiesce in South Korea's own bomb. Proliferation is inherent in the situation anyhow.

One thing can be said about Japanese reaction to North Korean bomb. A certain amount of commonsense and a sense of proportion need to be deployed: North Korea is no real threat to Japan. Japan is in fact a great military power as it is; it spends each year over $ 40 billion on defence. It is nearly equal to what India and Pakistan spend on defence together. True, it does not have nuclear weapons. But in most other departments it should be treated as a great military power. And making atomic weapons will require only political decision and a few months. Can North Korea mount an invasion on Japan no matter how many nuclear weapons it can manage to fabricate? The very idea of it is ridiculous. North Koreans' perceived threats to their own security should explain its behaviour; it has reasons to fear the US-Japan military alliance. It is still formally in a state of war with the US.

As the prospect of Japan going nuclear draws closer, there will be real turmoil throughout Asia. Japan's conduct in the 20th century, beginning with defeating Imperial Russia and occupying Korean areas and going on to invade China are a painful memory for most Asians. It occupied nearly all of South East Asia during Second World War and it was knocking at the doors of India. No Asian has forgotten that experience. Japan's going nuclear will be a cat among pigeons. The strongest reaction will come from China, though other South East Asians' fright ought not to be forgotten. Japanese Bomb will broadly recreate the later 1930s' Asia.

Who can forget that the US has already an alliance -- a series of inter-connecting treaties with Australasian and Asian powers -- that spans from South Korea through Japan, Taiwan to Australia and several other arrangements with South East Asian countries? Their alliance has the effect of a military alignment that only needs an enemy after the Soviets died and China became a semi-capitalist country. So this grand line up exists. India can be said to be a part of US power system; Indians and Americans are jointly patrolling the Straits of Malacca already. Pakistan also qualifies for this honour but for its greater relevance to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics -- and also perhaps because of its close relations with China it has lost some of its pro-American vigour.

In this context, the moralistic deprecation of nuclear proliferation by those who not only have nuclear weapons but greatly benefit from the importance and influence these weapons yield is disgusting. All major powers today are nuclear capable (except Japan) but want to limit the spreading of such weapons among others. There is a lot of self-serving moralistic rhetoric against proliferation that actually aims to preserve their monopoly or semi-monopoly now. It does not behove India, Pakistan or Israel to preach abstinence to others after committing this cardinal sin themselves. If nuclear weapons are bad for humanity, let them be outlawed in toto; why limit them to the P-5 and any other gate-crasher?

The fact cannot be ignored that possession of nuclear weapons is thought to be a sufficient deterrent to being aggressed against. North Korea will perhaps feel safe against an American-led invasion by threatening to nuke American troops in South Korea or in Japan. Well, that is the accepted wisdom, though it may not apply to every situation -- as it scarcely does in the case of Indo-Pakistan standoff. But so long as great powers gain benefits by virtue of being nuclear capable, there will be strong temptation by all threatened states to go nuclear. Already the number of countries equipped with nuclear power stands at nine.

Proliferation is aided by reason. International relations are not based on sweet reasonableness or morality or international law. What counts is military (and especially nuke) power. The stronger you are, the better the terms are for you. The US has shown, more clearly after the disappearance of the Soviets, that you can dominate the whole world by virtue of possessing overwhelming military power, based on nukes and the panoply of scientific and technological means of keeping everyone under surveillance. All your economic shortcomings can be rectified if you have the power to impose upon weaker states with resources.

Few can expect the ninth entry into this exclusive club to be the last. The way the world works also shows how to become powerful and get your way in your own neighbourhood by possessing atomic weapons and the means of delivering them. It is sad. If a change from this sordid power politics is desired, the thing to do is to outlaw nuclear weapons and keep them outlawed by force of public opinion.

MB Naqvi is an eminent Pakistani columnist.