How to deal with rogue states

North Koreans have attributed the cause of their action to its suspicion that the US would not honour the September 2005 agreement, which committed Washington to respect North Korean sovereignty and would allow Pyongyang to have a light-water nuclear reactor.

The matter was further complicated by Bush administration's designation of Macau bank Banco Delta Asia as a "money laundering concern" for assisting North Korean government and its agencies in drug trafficking and in the distribution of fake US currencies. After its designation as a money laundering concern, Banco Delta Asia froze 24 million dollars North Korean. Meanwhile, the US continued to decline to engage North Korea in direct talks outside of the context of the six party talks.

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Pyongyang's missile tests in defiance of the international community, particularly China, perhaps denote a fundamental change in North Korean attitude towards the six nation talks. It is suspected that the center of gravity within the North Korean dictatorial regime may have moved in favour of the hard-liners who may have decided that it is futile to negotiate with the US. Besides, the reaction of South Korea and China to the missile tests have been muted.

On October 14, the UNSC passed a resolution condemning the nuclear test and demanded of North Korea that it must refrain from further nuclear tests or launch ballistic missiles. The Council demanded that Pyongyang immediately retract its announced withdrawal from NPT, return to the pact, and accept IAEA safeguards. The resolution also demanded that North Korea must abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs "in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner." Most significantly, the resolution was passed unanimously with the support of China and Russia that in the past had been somewhat supportive of the North Korean stance in the talks.

In The Atlantic Monthly, Robert Kaplan, visiting professor at the US Naval Academy, has drawn a bleak picture on unraveling of the present North Korean regime. He describes Kim Jong Il as hardly an impulsive person but one who may be losing his edge.

Kaplan apprehends that as totalitarian regimes close to demise are apt to do rash things, the weaker North Korea gets the more dangerous it becomes. Whereas in 1980, 40% of North Korean combat forces were deployed near the DMZ, in 2003 the number increased to 70%.

North Korea, writes Kaplan, boasts of 100,000 well-trained special operations forces and one of the world's largest biological and chemical arsenals. But the more worrying aspect of the demise of Kim regime is North Korea's potential for anarchy which is no less than that of Iraq and the potential of deployment of weapons of mass destruction -- either during or after the pre-collapse of the regime -- is far greater.

Both South Korea and China have nightmarish vision of millions of North Korean refugees pouring into their territories after the collapse of Kim regime. Despite its image of Stalinist asphyxiated control over the people, it is believed that North Korea is informally controlled as independent fiefs by local party bosses who are immersed in widespread corruption and trying to circumvent a failing central government.

In the case of meltdown, US along with China, South Korea, and Russia are expected to pick up the pieces. But then one should be cautious in writing an epitaph for the Kim Jong Il regime too soon, as the Western prediction of demise of Iranian theocracy is yet to come to pass.

Besides, there is no reason to believe that South Koreans are eager for reunification given the fact that they will have to foot the bill for the poverty stricken North Korea in a post-Kim unified Korea.

Though China is the main fuel supplier and the country giving largest amount of food aid to North Korea and therefore supposedly has the most influence on Kim Jong Il regime, the nuclear test has put Beijing in an embarrassing position by adversely affecting China's efforts to keep a peaceful external environment essential for Chinese economic development and integration into international community.

The test also creates doubt about Chinese influence over North Korean regime and its credibility in international affairs. This perhaps explains the strong worded statement issued by Chinese foreign ministry after the nuclear test, expressing Beijing's firm opposition to the test.

The aberrant North Korean behaviour also fundamentally changes geo-political structure in the region and could spur a nuclear arms race among Japan (discounted by Prime Minister Abe), South Korea, and Taiwan to the detriment of China's long-term security interest.

North Korean dependence on China became apparent when during the recent visit by a special Chinese envoy to Pyongyang Kim Jong Il not only regretted the embarrassment caused to China by North Korean nuclear test but also promised not to undertake further tests and also to join the six party talks so long abjured by North Korea.

However, Kim's promise to rejoin the six party talks is conditioned upon the US withdrawing economic sanctions against North Korea. Concurrently, the diplomatic efforts by the new Japanese prime minister through his visits to China and South Korea and US secretary of state's visits to China and Japan must have cautioned Kim Jong Il that the international community would not tolerate reckless behaviour by the North Korean regime.

The nightmare scenario for the international community is the possibility of North Korea transferring nuclear materials to Iran and/or non-state actors. Such a possibility cannot be totally discounted. Demented rulers threatened by unraveling of their dictatorships are most desperate people who can do anything to hurt the "enemy" in the last throes of their rule.

President Bush reiterated that "opposing proliferation is one of the highest priorities of the war against terror," as terrorists if they ever gain WMD would kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people "without hesitation and without mercy."

He assured that the US would continue its vigilance against proliferation through enhanced intelligence capabilities; interdiction of materials and technologies in transit; insistence on multi-lateral approach as in the case of North Korea.

It is now recognized that the real danger to international security and stability is the possession of WMD by rogue states and terrorists. International vigilance, particularly by P-5 of the UNSC, is essential to guard against the possibility of nuclear weapons and/or technology falling into the hands of non-state actors. Rogue states have to be identified, isolated, and punished for the slightest infraction of non-proliferation regime.

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and Ambassador.