Sri Lankan situation nosedives

Sri Lanka now faces the prospects of full-blown conflict unless something dramatically salvages the situation. Indeed, it is a big setback for the country, and worse times await the nation if it plunges into all out civil war.

Earlier, in Geneva in the last week of October, crunch talks between the government and the Tamil militants to resolve the civil war in Sri Lanka failed to produce any tangible results. The two sides were unable to reach an agreement on the next round of talks. Norwegian mediators had expressed the hope that the discussions would help better the government Tamil relationship, at least to some extent, since both have now come under intense pressure to honor the ceasefire as far as possible. But subsequent developments belied the positive note struck by the mediators, and things are now once again coming back to "Square One".

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The solution of the Sri Lankan imbroglio hinged on the crucial talks which were made possible by long and painstaking efforts of the Norwegian government after recent months had witnessed fierce fighting. The talks took place when the two sides were launching bigger attacks despite the fact that a formal truce still existed, although only on paper. Now even that ceasefire is in tatters as the Tamil militants have withdrawn from that understanding and vowed to establish an independent state.

Several rounds of dialogues, following the truce in 2002, had narrowed down the differences between the two sides as both gave concessions. A major outcome of the earlier talks was a significant climb-down on part of the rebels who had agreed to give up the demand for a separate homeland, and were willing to settle for autonomy in the federal structure of Sri Lanka. The fresh announcement by their leader seems to have put at rest that possibility as he is now talking tough, and that is accepting nothing short of independence.

Sadly, the Lankan conflict took a turn for the worse in recent times as fighting grew in intensity, with both sides demonstrating scant respect for the ceasefire. The country witnessed the worst ever suicide attack on October 16 when Tamil rebels detonated a truck packed with explosives next to a convoy of sailors, killing more than 100 people and injuring about another 200.The development has angered the government, which swung into all out offensive, using the air force in addition to the army and the navy to confront the rebels.

The fighting intensified with neither side achieving any decisive gain. Fighting was raging, with both sides employing maximum might in the battlefield, even when the talks were going on in Geneva. This is an indication of where the crisis has gone, as anxiety heightened nationally and internationally about the shape of things to come in the future if hostilities continued with full ferocity. The concerns have now further soared after the latest position taken by the militants on the crisis.

Reverting to the demand of independence was not much expected at this stage, but it appears that the rebels have been driven by desperation as their supporters, particularly the cadres, are questioning the very fundamentals of their war. Many are believed to be in favor of a tough stance because they feel that a war in which they are losing men and materials is not worth anything short of independence. They are aware that the task is a very difficult, if not a Herculean, one, but most feel that such losses cannot be accepted for autonomy or any other gains less then their separate identity as a nation. Clearly, Prabhakaran has taken a great risk, as this position will alienate the militants internationally. Probably he is more concerned with the spirit of his cadres.

The United States, peace-broker Norway and Sri Lanka's big and influential neighbor India have not supported the fresh call of independence by the Tamil "Tigers" as they feel that there can be no military solution to the conflict. All are calling for fresh peace efforts and dialogue between the two sides. However, the latest situation indicates that the Lankan imbroglio is nose-diving, with the grim prospect of more bloodshed and destruction. This will be a bigger catastrophe for the South Asian nation, which has already seen colossal, damages economically and militarily because of the long civil war. The conflict has proved that no side can win the war easily, and both need to be realistic and prudent.

While the rebels must not be carried away by sentiments devoid of realism, the Colombo government should also come forward with such proposals and measures that will help assuage the feelings of the militants and inspire them to shun extreme policies. Now that the rebels have reverted to the demand for independence it will be quite difficult to bring them back to the negotiating table, unless severe pressure and ground realities compel them to go for dialogue. President Rajapakse is also likely to opt for a tough position in view of Prabhakaran's announcement. Both parties will be well advised to see "realities" for the sake of their country and people, rather than opting for more bloodshed and destruction. The Sri Lankan situation can still be salvaged, and for this greater wisdom is required on the part of both sides, with the onus largely lying with the government.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.