Rethinking Election 2007

According to an estimate, AL and allies were engaged in an intense movement for 527 days. Around 100 people died in the movement. Thousands of crores of taka have gone down the drain due to hartals, blockades and so on.

But what has been the achievement? AL and allies can count some achievements in departure of three persons. But did the suffering people, in whose name AL and allies waged the movement, gain anything in the process? Has the Election Commission (EC) been strengthened? Has it not been further weakened instead? Has the Caretaker Government (CTG) been neural?

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On the contrary, has it not been further biased with the departure of four competent and committed advisers? This is not to mean that the present CTG is not capable of conducting a fair election. But, is it really neutral in accordance with the yardstick AL and allies had been preaching even a few days back? Then, were only three persons the obstacles to a fair election in Bangladesh? Notably, BNP leaders' regularly and emphatically remarked that AL would ultimately go for elections.

Though it is difficult to say what will happen following the election, our democracy seems to be safe at least for the time being because of this attitude by AL. But the moot point that has been raised by many is that, AL could have gone for elections two months back. AL can justify the movement in their parlance.

I, however, do not know how they will justify the sufferings they caused to the people in the process. In fact, AL and allies got many sympathizers in their movement who want basic institutions such as Election Commission, Neutral Caretaker Government, civil administration and other bodies to be more efficient and strengthened.

Despite sufferings of various sorts, there was not an intolerable attitude to the movement in the citizenry. Many people were ready to sacrifice for the AL's agitation in the hope that the results would be meaningful.

But what has AL and allies delivered? Has AL not made things worse instead by signing a highly controversial deal with religion based Khelafat-e-Majlish? Though AL's alliance with JP is also very questionable, AL's abrupt surrender of secularism to Khelafat-e-Majlish points to the desperation AL is now feeling for an electoral victory.

Don't you however think, AL could easily have avoided such an ideological hara-kiri only if it had concentrated on capitalising on the BNP alliance's incumbency disadvantage as well phenomenal failures in power sector, price control, corruption and militancy? Arguably, elections in Bangladesh are profoundly influenced by immediate public sentiment, which was clearly against the ruling political parties two months back. I am, however, doubtful whether that sentiment remains the same today.

Moreover, as AL's movement did not succeed in delivering anything concrete to the people, the horrific scenes during the last few days of October might now start looking all the more gratuitous to the people.

It is also difficult to predict that those will not count against AL and allies in the final analysis along with the negative impacts of AL's unholy alliance with fundamental political parties. May I, then, ask why BNP and AL should cause sufferings to the people in the name of democracy, ideology and so on while they can stoop to anything for power?

What is the harm in forming a permanent coalition government of thieves and thugs -- sorry for using this term which has struck me for the fact that many of two major political parties were behind the unholy move of Supreme Court stay against the High Court directive for declaring the MP candidates' personal information -- to loot public money?

People wanted a change for the better through the AL alliance. But, can people be really confident if the current tendencies of AL are any indication?

Many know that Nazim Kamran Choudhury in his outstanding analysis and predictions on Elections, 2007 -- printed in The Daily Star on October 6, 2006 -- pointed out a debacle for BNP-JI-JP (JP is, however, now with AL). On October 8, I, in my article, did comment that the reversal was not due to the fact that the then current opposition parties deserved to win big for their effective role against the misrule of the incumbents during their five years tenure, it was more for the reason that the masses had still to get a viable political alternative.

However, today, after about 3 months, I have a kind of feeling that Mr. Kamran and others will, perhaps, have to go for more surveys. I think the changed scenario at least requires some more analyses to project a novel prediction regarding the election 2007.

Notably, Kamran's survey had found 53% undecided voters. Don't you think that this figure might increase dramatically in a fresh survey in view of two-months long unending machinations of BNP alliance plus unproductive agitation of AL combine in the sense that it has not been able to bring about positive changes that would have long-standing effects? Don't you think that even a silent no-vote movement might gain momentum as no-confidence motion to the political and ideological bankrupts of all complexions?

Kazi SM Khasrul Alam Quddusi is Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, University of Chittagong.