Ahsan Habib

India may offer Bangladesh fresh loans under a new framework, as implementation of the projects under the existing loan programme is proving difficult due to some strict loan conditions.

However, the move could have little effect on revitalising the market in the past as it was seen that black money holders do not prefer parking funds in stocks when the amnesty was in place.

The highest loss, at Tk 6,118 crore, was incurred by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) in July-April of the fiscal year. Its provisional loss was Tk 11,163 crore in the full year of 2022-23.

The new budget for the upcoming fiscal year is unlikely to provide respite from one of the longest spells of sustained inflation in Bangladesh as the government’s measures appear to be missing the impetus required to contain the price spiral.

In yet another blow to stock market investors, the government plans to impose a capital gains tax on them from next fiscal year.

The overall revenue generation target will be Tk 537,000 crore in the new fiscal year that begins on July 1, which is 7.4 percent higher than that of the goal of the outgoing financial year.

The net foreign portfolio investment in Bangladesh continued to fall in the July-March period of fiscal year 2023-24 due to the negative economic outlook, repeated devaluation of the local currency against the US dollar, and policy instability.

The national budget for the fiscal year of 2024-25 is going to be presented in parliament on Thursday with monumental tasks ahead for the government to collect more revenues and contain stubbornly high inflation.

The key index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange plunged by 1,000 points in a span of three months as investors keep selling their holdings, fearing further deterioration of economic indicators.

Bangladesh’s stock market has never fallen into such a bad situation in terms of the narrowing of investment opportunities in the last 30 years, said Abu Ahmed, a stock market analyst.

According to a provisional estimate of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), consumption of goods and services grew 3.53 percent in 2023-24, up from 2.52 percent in the last fiscal year.

Bangladesh's factory output grew 6.66 percent in the current fiscal year, the slowest pace of expansion since the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country, as the stubbornly high inflation hurt domestic demand and the shipment of export-oriented goods slowed.

The profit margin of Grameenphone Ltd was around seven times more than that of Robi Axiata Ltd in 2023.

Stock investors in Bangladesh are leaving the share market as they are losing their hard-earned money because of the persisting fall of the indices driven by the prolonged economic crisis, the worsening health of the banking industry, and rising interest and exchange rates.

SS Steel Ltd has registered higher turnover thanks to increased sales ever since the steelmaker started acquiring several companies in 2020, but its overall profit has dropped.

Investors who owned the issues of good companies that provided at least 50 percent dividend in their last financial year incurred losses in the first four months of 2024. On the other hand, people who bet on low-performing companies, which declared less than 15 percent dividends, saw their portfolio inflate.

Why is there such a huge discrepancy between multinational banks and state-run lenders despite operating in the same business environment? The reason is a lack of efficiency in making business decisions, business focus, and political bias.

As a result, general investors remained in the dark about the financial performance of the company during this period.

The profit amounted to Tk 999 crore, soaring 70 percent year-on-year. It was Tk 587 crore in 2022.

Analysts say the regulator’s intervention is denting investors’ confidence and it comes at a time when they are still smarting from the wounds caused by the 18-month-long floor price, a period when most of the stocks were untradeable.