Audit of past GDP data likely to finish soon

The ongoing forensic audit of key official statistics disclosed during the previous governments, including gross domestic product (GDP) and the consumer price index, is likely to be completed this month, according to an official.

A seven-member committee, led by Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) Secretary Md Firoz Sarker, is carrying out the audit on data produced by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The panel includes five government officials and two Dhaka University professors.

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Once completed, the report will be submitted to Prime Minister’s Finance and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir. The audit comes after debate over Bangladesh’s official economic growth figures during the Awami League government.

The interim government had formed an expert taskforce to assess the quality, transparency and accessibility of official statistics. After taking office, the BNP-led government said it was prioritising an in-depth investigation and review to determine whether any official data had been incorrect or distorted.

The committee is reviewing historical GDP and consumer price index data, cross-checking BBS figures against the Bangladesh Bank records to verify sector-wise estimates

As part of that process, the SID-led committee was due to submit its report by July 15. However, it missed the deadline and now needs more time, according to planning ministry sources.

The committee is reviewing historical GDP and consumer price index data, cross-checking BBS figures against the Bangladesh Bank records to verify sector-wise estimates. It is also assessing progress on the Open Government Data initiative.

“It is a very challenging exercise because we are tracing the figures back to the source data,” said a committee member on condition of anonymity.

The committee is revisiting the GDP estimates for each financial year based on the 2005-06 base year. “Given the debate surrounding these figures, this work will be very important,” the member said.

He said the review is taking longer than expected because of the scale of the verification.

“This is a huge research exercise. We are sitting down to examine where every figure came from,” he said, adding that the team hopes to finish within the month.

Another committee member said the review is focused on strengthening the methodology rather than revisiting past growth figures.

“Our main objective is to identify methodological loopholes in GDP estimation and determine how they can be closed so that the statistics are produced more accurately,” he said.

As part of that work, the team is tracing how estimation methods evolved from the 2005-06 GDP base year to the 2015 base year and through later revisions to identify where weaknesses may have emerged.

“Our task is not to validate the populist speculative claims but to ensure the methodology is strong enough so that such concerns cannot arise in future.”

He said the review has already uncovered cases of incomplete documentation.

“In many cases, there are no records explaining how certain figures were generated. We are trying to identify those gaps so the process becomes more transparent and reliable,” he said.

“If the methodology or the process is weak, any government could face the same problem. Our objective is to strengthen the system itself,” he said.

In June, State Minister for Planning Zonayed Abdur Rahim Saki said that all past data was being re-examined.

“It is being looked into whether any information has been manipulated. The government is now emphasising in-depth investigation and review to identify incorrect and distorted data,” he said.