Type 1 diabetes could affect 2.7 million more people by 2049

Research due to be presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Milan estimates that 12.1 million people could be living with type 1 diabetes worldwide by 2049, up from 9.4 million in 2025. That means around 2.7 million additional people — a 29 per cent rise.

The number of people developing the condition each year is also expected to climb, from about 530,000 in 2025 to more than 605,000 by 2049.

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The increase will not look the same everywhere. Wealthier countries are expected to carry large numbers of people living with the condition. In the UK, the total could rise from around 314,000 to more than 420,000. In the United States, it could jump from nearly 1.5 million to more than two million.

But a different warning is emerging from poorer countries. Tanzania, for example, could see the number of new cases each year almost double by 2049. Better access to insulin and blood sugar monitoring may also allow more people to survive and live longer with the condition.

Children and teenagers remain particularly important. Those aged under 20 are estimated to account for 42 per cent of new cases globally in 2025, with the proportion even higher in low-income countries.

The findings carry a simple message: as the number of people with type 1 diabetes grows, access to affordable insulin and good-quality care must grow with it. In poorer settings, where reliable information remains limited, strengthening diagnosis, treatment and long-term support could mean the difference between merely counting cases and saving lives.