Pakistan at democracy's crossroads
All those who value freedom must feel relieved that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has dropped the disastrous idea of declaring a state of emergency, which would have allowed him to postpone assembly and presidential elections, due soon.
He even seems to be undertaking sobering introspection -- admitting that his popularity ratings have declined and accepting part of the blame for dismissing Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.
Yet, Gen. Musharraf's decision didn't spring from new-found respect for democracy. He blinked because there was pressure from the United States, exercised through threats and a 17 minutes-long 2 a.m. telephone call by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Secondly, he probably didn't want to risk inflaming popular opinion against the army. Another eruption of protest would have robbed his regime of whatever's left of its legitimacy.
A just-released Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS-Dawn survey says 55.4 percent of Pakistanis want him to quit as army chief before the presidential elections; only 29.6 percent don't.
Gen. Musharraf hasn't reconciled himself to holding free and fair national elections, which exiled former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif can contest. Last week, he again opposed their return because it won't be "conducive" to elections.
Gen. Musharraf hasn't abandoned the idea of contesting the Presidential election in uniform, or of nominating loyalists -- Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or Shujat Hussain -- if the courts rule against his candidature. That would be a bizarre case of substitution, and a travesty of democracy.
The more one learns about Gen. Musharraf's secret deal with Ms. Bhutto, into which he's being goaded by Washington, the worse it sounds. Under it, she would return and contest elections but accept Gen. Musharraf's tenure as army chief till November 16. Ms. Bhutto has confirmed this "confidential understanding."
Ms. Bhutto wants "confidence-building measures," like withdrawal of corruption cases and enabling her to become prime minister again. Her spokesperson says the general's uniform is not an "obstacle." This means the Pakistan People's Party probably won't oppose Gen. Musharraf's re-election as president, but instead ally with him.
Ms. Bhutto's logic is that toppling him through an agitation might lead to another spell of military rule or Pakistan's extremist takeover.
The logic is dubious. It makes a false opposition between extremes and rules out that Gen. Musharraf might be forced by the courts -- now emboldened by Justice Chaudhry's reinstatement -- not to seek re-election from the sitting assemblies whose terms expire shortly.
It also underestimates the strength of public opinion.
It's unclear whether Gen. Musharraf can persuade the army to impose another term of martial law. In recent months, the army's standing has greatly eroded -- because of its increasing intrusion into civilian authority, its public exposure, and its handling of the Lal Masjid crisis.
Eight years ago, many Pakistanis accepted the coup out of disgust with the corrupt governance of civilian leaders.
But his regime betrayed its promises to cleanse governance, make the rich pay taxes, oppose extremism, and be transparent in implementing "free-market" policies.
For instance, the Accountability Commission became a farce. Gen. Musharraf tried to strike deals with pro-extremist clerics. There were scandals in public enterprises' privatisation. Now, there's widespread disillusionment with the military.
A poll by the US-based International Republican Institute found that Gen. Musharraf's approval ratings dipped to 34 percent from 60 in mid-2006. Fifty-eight percent of respondents gave the army-dominated regime poor/very poor marks; 56 percent said they felt less safe than a year ago.
Sixty-two percent wanted Gen. Musharraf to quit as army chief if he wants to re-elected president.
By entering into a shady deal with Musharraf which allows his re-election before fresh assembly elections, Ms. Bhutto would violate the Charter of Democracy she signed with Mr. Sharif in May, which states: "We shall not join … any military-sponsored government. No party shall solicit the support of the military to come into power."
This will make it doubly difficult for Mr. Sharif to return home. Gen. Musharraf bears an animus against him. Whatever Mr Sharif's faults -- there are many -- his continued exile will set back democratisation.
It'd be tragic if the PPP, Pakistan's largest party, were to reach such a compromise, which might cause it to split.
Worse, this would help the army entrench itself in a prominent political role just as it's losing its relevance. This would undermine some major gains the pro-democratisation momentum has made.
Regrettably, despite Gen. Musharraf's ambivalent record vis-à-vis the Taliban, and his agencies' role in Afghanistan, external factors favour him. The three nations that matter the most to Pakistan -- the US, China and India -- certainly do.
This is understandable in the case of the US which follows a myopic policy guided by its Global War on Terror (GWoT) in which Gen. Musharraf remains its best ally. It wants to shore up his sinking support-base through an alliance with Ms. Bhutto.
China is probably sceptical, even suspicious, of Pakistan's democratisation.
However, India's pro-Musharraf position is much less understandable or justifiable. India has a long-term stake in a democratic, stable Pakistan which can rein in the military and its secret services, which nurture a strong anti-India prejudice -- probably a more extreme obverse of the anti-Pakistan attitude of their Indian counterparts.
That certainly conforms to the dominant view held within India's establishment.
Yet, India's National Security Adviser M K Narayanan declared (July 29) that "the worst is over" for Musharraf; there's been no "major dent" in his influence because he accepted the chief justice's reinstatement "with grace."
Besides echoing the dominant US view of Gen Musharraf's indispensability, this expresses cynicism towards the Pakistani public's aspirations.
A survey of South Asia's democratisation by India's Centre for the Study of Developing Societies suggests that the democratic aspirations of ordinary Pakistanis are no weaker than those of Indians or Nepalis.
One must wish them success in making Pakistan a full-fledged democracy, with a functioning party system which responds to their wishes on the basis of accountability, not benevolent military paternalism.
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