Bottom Line
Musharraf fears democracy, not extremism
On November 3, President General Musharraf declared virtual "martial law" under the guise of emergency rule, despite the fact that the attorney general had earlier stated that he (Musharraf) would not.
Emergency rule is ordinarily declared under specific provisions of the Constitution, but he suspended the Constitution. Therefore, he runs an extra or unconstitutional government. He promulgated a Provisional Constitutional Order, which the defunct Supreme Court declared illegal.
He inducted new judges loyal to him in the Supreme Court, but the composition of the new Supreme Court has been challenged as being illegal and unconstitutional.
Although his declared motive was to curb extremism in the country, he did not take any action against Islamic extremists or the Taleban, but dismissed Supreme Court judges and arrested human rights activists and lawyers.
Are they extremists in General Musharraf's eyes? Yes, in a way, because they all want democracy and his removal.
To General Musharraf, they are more dangerous than the Taleban or Islamic militants because they want election, and they want him to quit not only the position of chief of army but also that of the president.
How can an army chief, a salaried government official, run a public office? He has managed to hold two posts since 1999, although he promised to quit the army post in 2004. He broke the pledge with impunity and the international community kept silent.
General Musharraf did not permit himself to be elected by the new elected assemblies but was elected on October 6 by the old assemblies. That election in 2002 was believed to have been rigged by his regime. He dared not face the new elected assemblies because he knew he would be defeated unless he shared power with Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party.
Now, after military rule under Musharraf since 1999, Pakistan has become almost ungovernable, and bears a negative image in international community. The London terrorist attacks were found to have links with Pakistanis. Any Pakistani is deemed to be a terrorist or Islamic militant overseas, although Musharraf has received $10 billion in aid from the Bush administration to revamp his military to fight the Taleban in Afghanistan.
Although he aligned with the US in its fight against terrorism, he allowed two extremist Islamic parties to win the election in 2002 to govern two provinces, one happens to be a neighbour of Afghanistan.
General Musharraf seems to have been surprised at President Bush's attitude towards him. He forgets that Ms. Bhutto is an American ally, and for the last one year the US and Britain have been attempting to broker a deal for Bhutto with Musharraf so that a secular civilian government is installed in the country.
Ms. Bhutto returned to Pakistan on October 18, and has been making noises, in line with Washington, against the emergency rule. She was put under house-arrest on November 9, but was freed next day because of US pressure. If there are demonstrations on the streets, the military may not fire on them because it might create a negative image of the army as an institution
Like any other military dictator, he does not wish to go from the high office because power is an addiction. He has become addicted to absolute power and, unless forced, no dictator is willing to resign or remove himself from power.
Musharraf's only constituency is the army. If the army decides to remove him it can. But, ordinarily, the army does not rebel against its chief unless it has to. A time may come when the army's reputation will be at stake because of Musharraf. The army as an institution is bigger than General Musharraf.
General Ayub Khan was forced to leave as president when General Yahaya Khan told him to go because the military establishment did not support him anymore. General Yahaya was forced to surrender his power as the president after the defeat of Pakistan army in former East Pakistan.
In Pakistan, it is the military which decides who comes and who goes as president. The military has ruled the country for more than half of the 60 years after independence. Now the clear message from the Bush administration is not encouraging for the army as an institution. The Pentagon suspended military talks with Pakistan immediately after the declaration of emergency.
General Musharraf seems to be in a bind. He is too proud to climb down but, at the same time, he is extremely vulnerable to pressure from home and abroad. He should leave power with respect and dignity.
Musharraf's deputy, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, will take over as the army chief when Musharraf takes off his uniform. It is up to him and his fellow generals to decide Musharraf's political future.
Barrister Harun ur Rashid Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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