As I See It
Caretakers or undertakers?
Despite dire predictions to the contrary, the general elections are scheduled before the start of the month of Muharram, i.e. Jan 9, 2008. Given the short 45-60 days period, one would expect electioneering to start in earnest within a week or so. While the decimation of the superior judiciary and the muzzling of the media, primarily the electronic media, remain a point of some contention, the acid test of credibility of the Musharraf regime will be in the appointment of an acceptable caretaker PM and his cabinet. That should happen in the next couple of days.
Failure to pass the test of neutrality will thrust the country into a worse crisis than witnessed in the past week. Because of the 2002 experience, when the agencies were directly involved in blatant rigging and manipulation, the political parties are not likely to enter the electoral process without cast-iron guarantees about its fairness. If the EC has to be re-constituted, will that delay the elections process?
Attempts will certainly be made to keep the PML (N) out of the electoral process by all means, fair and foul. Musharraf's power-sharing arrangement with the PPP can only be possible if there is a substantial PML (Q) segment in the Assemblies, and that is only possible with PML (N) out of contention. Mian Sahib is a charismatic leader, but can be influenced by those close to him, and that does not include his brother Shahbaz Sharif.
If the PML (N) is shut out of the general elections, it will remain out in the political cold for the foreseeable future. Mian Nawaz Sharif must show maturity and, hopefully, will not fall for any given provocation, perceived or otherwise.
A PML (N) boycott will trigger the deal that Pervez Musharraf and Ms Benazir have been negotiating over months. A most likely scenario is based on all major political parties taking part in the electoral process, that is the only salvation for Pakistan.
In Sindh, PPP will get about 52-55% of the seats and, except for a handful in Karachi, Lyari and Malir, almost all in the rural areas. The MQM will have nearly all the urban seats (about 30-33%) in Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas and Sukkur.
Because of the re-drawing of constituencies they may get some urban-rural ones. Despite their relative unpopularity, as well as the incumbency factor, the rural part of the ruling Sindh coalition will still win some safe seats, probably managing 8-10%.
Some constituencies are the preserve of independents and religious parties, and the odd one or two PML (N) candidates can win on their own steam. With a fairly comfortable majority, the PPP will be able to make a government in Sindh by itself; the pragmatic way would be to draw the urban-based MQM into a power-sharing arrangement.
A Sindh government without MQM content will find it difficult to run the province without having in partnership those who represent the major urban areas, particularly Karachi, with the MQM.
The Punjab was in the bag for PPP 30-45 days ago. With a fairly solid southern Punjab in their pockets, the PPP could have won enough seats in central and northern Punjab to be the major party if not the majority party in the PA.
While Mian Nawaz Sharif is the Punjab favourite, the demography of vote count was against him. Not anymore! Ms Benazir's playing of the Sindh card, even though muted, has driven Punjabis by droves back into the PML (N) camp.
Her contention about giving limited access to western interrogators to speak to AQ Khan on the nuclear proliferation issue has not been taken well in the Punjab, and the rest of the country (except rural Sindh), in fact it has been taken as a promise to the US to hand him over.
Her publicly stated commitment to the Americans to give them a free hand in FATA has also not gone down well. The final straw has been the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and the power-sharing arrangement being discussed with the Musharraf regime, it has upset about everyone except the PPP-diehards.
With Mian Nawaz Sharif on the opposite side on all these issues, there is a decisive shift in the swing vote in his favour. Barring the unforeseen between now and election day, Mian Nawaz Sharif's PML (N) will get a major portion of Punjab PA seats, but not enough to make the government on its own.
While the PPP remains a major power in the Punjab, the PML (Q) has stalwarts who will win their own individual seats; they will come close to, if not equal, PPP's tally. In a power-sharing deal PPP's coalition with PML (Q) will shut out the majority (in Punjab) PML (N) from governance.
In the Frontier, the MMA will be almost wiped out from the Peshawar valley. The JI faction will get its quota of mountain seats in the north, and even though the JUI (F) will lose seats from the tally they have now, they will retain their strength in south NWFP.
The ANP and PML (Q) will increase their tally of seats, as well PML (Q), all in the Peshawar Valley, at MMA expense. Ms. Benazir's espousing of the US agenda ensures that PPP will be lucky to have even one or two seats. There will be a coalition government, most probably between the JUI (F) faction of the MMA and the PML (Q), backed by a contingent of independents, their services always up for grabs to the highest bidder.
Balochistan will be more of the same, most parties will get 2 or 3 seats, the party positions not changing much. A PML (Q)-led coalition government is most probable, duly supported by the JUI (F) and the usual coterie of independents to make the necessary numbers.
Even though post-Akbar Bugti emergence of a cult-led nationalism has increased among the Baloch they are not nearly enough in numbers to influence the outcome. The PPP is desperately trying to get hold of genuine independents, but will be almost shut out in the numbers count.
There will be a plus/minus 10% difference from the PA count to the NA elections, most probably on Jan 6, no party having the numbers necessary to make the Federal Government without entering into a coalition arrangement.
As things stand today, the PPP will have the maximum number of seats in the NA, followed closely by PML (N) and PML (Q). Election adjustments, and its presence in all four Provinces because of its incumbency, could have PML (Q) overtake PPP. In a hung Parliament independents and smaller parties always have considerable clout as potential king-makers.
Not only the next few days, but also the steps Pervez Musharraf takes will be crucial for Pakistan. The president's good faith will be on trial in having a genuinely neutral caretaker set up. Now that the PPP is threatening a boycott, the whole electoral process could go in smoke.
In that case, the only option is to go the Bangladeshi route and have a genuinely neutral set-up meant to clean out those from the political parties who are corrupt; this may require 18-24 months. To maintain its impartiality it will have to be without Musharraf. If we fail to have credible elections, we might as well give over the nation to the undertakers!
Ikram Sehgal, is an eminent Pakistani political analyst and columnist.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments