Letter from Washington
To this outside observer the position of American foreign policy in western Asia has reached a remarkable tangle, a "perfect storm." This tangle is shaped by the forthcoming election in the United States; developments in Iraq and Afghanistan; the increasingly difficult position in Turkey; the attitudes of the Palestinians and Israel; the face off with Iran; the political turmoil in Pakistan; and the split within the right wing of American politics.
First, all available public polling data indicates that Senator Clinton is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party and that she will win the election. The polls have her ahead of other Democrats and defeating all prospective Republican candidates. Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice feel the breath of Senator Clinton at their backs.
In my opinion, the Bush administration is torn between the sensible views of Ms. Rice, the secretary of state, and Mr. Gates, the secretary of defense, on one side and on the other the vice president backed up by a strident right wing group now expressing great dissatisfaction with Bush's policies. The history books are very much on the minds of the president and Ms. Rice.
The Israeli-Palestine conflict remains the most important issue shaping the attitudes of the Muslim world towards the United States. The Bush administration is making a major push in its last year in power to reach an agreement for a Palestinian state. This effort is unlikely to be successful; the Israelis and Palestinians are both dug into positions that cannot be reconciled and unless the United States is prepared to twist the arm of Israel, nothing will ultimately come of this; with an election next year the US is not prepared to do so. Indeed, the Israelis worried that Bush may find the courage to push them hard are fighting back in advance, now attacking American policy towards Egypt.
Ms. Rice is desperate to achieve something during her tenure. While she has already made important progress in North Korea, she may also feel that negotiations over Palestine will ease the pressure to take military action against Iran.
The end result will be the further improvement in the position of the Hamas in Palestine and Israel falling further into the moral abyss that is consuming that nation. The next president will face negotiations that are half done with little give from Israel.
The rising conflict between Iraq and Turkey is a fresh headache. The United States is essentially buying off Turkey's anger. Whether this will work is uncertain. The Kurdish PKK terrorists believe that any compromise is betrayal; the experience of the Kurds in the past fifty years has been grim.
The PKK, focused on the treatment of Kurds within Turkey, is determined to promote their cause. Ms. Rice has a good chance of calming the waters for a few months but the new president will be faced with difficult choices.
Within Iraq security is improving; hence the naysayers (like me) have to admit that we were wrong, the new tactics of the American military are working. But the underlying problem of joining the three groups of Shiites, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds together remains; only a greatly decentralised federal system is likely to be successful and the chance of a society living in harmony with a democratic system remains remote.
With the Arab Sunnis finally beginning to realize where their real interests rest, the violence promoted by Al Qaeda will diminish; they cannot carry on without Sunni support that they have now lost. The new president will have to make difficult choices about the long run position of the US in Iraq.
Iran becomes less of a threat as the violence in Iraq winds down. Iran understands very well that it is not so smart to give the United States a reason for attacking. Now in only a few months the main proponents of attacking Iran will be retiring!
Of course the nuclear weapon issue remains a central concern but this will not be sufficient to cause the US to attack Iran; so long as Ms. Rice has the support of the president there is not going to be an attack on Iran.
Threaten and bluff yes, actually attack, no. But the new president will inherit a very difficult relationship with Iran, none of the issues being resolved.
The difficulties facing the Afghan government and its allies increase. There is a long history of foreign invaders into this isolated land; the topography encourage local political dominance and I think that the men in Afghanistan like to fight; they will do so on any excuse, whether invader or neighbour.
They also like to have the money that they earn from narcotics. These are timeless realities in direct collision with those trying to conquer Afghanistan or the do-gooders trying to improve things.
The current conditions in Pakistan result in many persons supporting the Taliban and raising the level of violence. It will only get worse in the next year. This is another headache for the new president.
The new development is the collapse of the Pakistan government. As we watch the unfolding of this crisis it is obvious that the Musharraf government's days are numbered. It is here in Pakistan that the greatest threats now rest. Their nuclear weapons makes this problem no longer one of another third world country in conflict between the military and the civilian politicians, but risks disaster if the nuclear weapons get in the wrong hands.
The United States government is very, very concerned about these nuclear weapons but despite such concerns the Bush administration is committed to Musharraf and hopes to find a solution that will last for the next year.
It is unlikely that this will be possible; by the time that the new president takes office political instability in Pakistan will be very great.
Where are we today? Have we reached the climax of America's war against terrorism? Or is the full blast of conflict about to be unleashed? Wherever we are, the present American government has one objective -- get through the next year and let the next president figure out how to put this jigsaw puzzle together. Ms. Rice will keep the peace and for that we will all owe her our thanks. God help her successor.
Forrest Cookson is an economist.
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