Beneath The Surface
We shall overcome …
No sooner could the economy recover from the devastation of two consecutive floods the mighty Sidr has, seemingly, put the last nail in the coffin. The cyclone apparently affected one-third of the population across the country. In fact, about one crore people have been directly affected by Sidr.
While the losses from flood could well be recouped through judicious crop planning and management, it is not easy to heal the wounds from a calamity like Sidr. For example, to compensate the losses for the fallen trees or livestock lost might take years. Again, in some areas, boro is not a suitable crop for recouping the losses.
Available estimates, based on newspaper reports and government documents, show that the total cost might stand at Tk.6,500 crores or more: Tk.3,200 crores due to loss of aman harvest, Tk.2,000 crores due to loss of roads and bridges, Tk.800 crores for rebuilding houses and Tk.500 crore on account of fallen or uprooted trees. However, the total economic loss could range between roughly 2-3 percent of the GDP. But there are many other costs also. Thousands have been ruined economically in coastal areas, turning into real paupers.
The mental pressures, the agony from losing family members, loss on account of the devastation in Sundarbans etc -- if properly computed -- could far cross economists' calculations. In most of the cyclone-hit areas, economic activities came to almost grinding halt. This may add to inflation, and reduction in GDP growth rate in the current financial year.
The measures that we can possibly think of can be grouped into short term or immediate, spanning over few months; medium-term that would require more than one year and long-term steps that would need many years. Among the short-term steps, the major concern now is to distribute food among the victims. A quasi-famine looms large on the horizon of the coastal areas. That means mostly food items should be immediately distributed.
We are happy to note that the Bangladesh army, various political parties and social organisations are already on way to reach the hungry. In this case, however, dry food could be a better option since many of the households do not have facilities to cook food.
The food items should be mobilised from within the country and, more specifically, from neighbouring districts. For the import of food grains, amounting to roughly 30 lakh tons or so, the government could utilise the accumulated foreign exchange reserves. Of course, the question of availability of food, especially of rice, in the international market remains a big question.
We can also, possibly, propose that international assistance should sought in terms of commodities, not cash, for the sake of making food available to people. The short-term steps also include medical services for diseases like skin disease, diarrhea etc. We can also consider distribution of seeds and fertilisers for crops like sweet potato, til, betel leaves etc. that are well-suited for coastal conditions. Since a large livestock population was lost, provisions for power tillers and tractors from other areas could, perhaps, partially stem the rot.
The medium-term steps comprise rehabilitation. Since Sidr has demolished not only standing crops but also houses, school buildings, roads and culverts, a massive rehabilitation program should be started to ensure a normal life in those areas. The rehabilitation program should also take into account the fact that the affected households have lost their capacity to borrow, not to speak of repayment. So, mere availability of credit may not help unless the infrastructure or economic activities that credit could help with is assured to households.
The long-term measures span many years. They include tree plantation programs, growing livestock population, building shelters in coastal areas with multi-dimensional motives, evolving short duration crops for saline affected areas etc. More importantly, it implies devising a development strategy keeping the changing climatic conditions in mind. This also includes regional cooperation in early warning system, and strengthening government's capacity to increase logistic support to respond to such crises etc.
Bangladesh is a country of continuous crisis -- both man-made and natural. In fact, crises have long crippled the economy and barred its boom. But equally true is the fact that Bangladeshis overcame the crises through united efforts of the people in the past. Their resilience capacity, when supported by public, private and international initiatives, paved the way on several occasions to overcome the woes they were faced with. This time also we can see the rays of the sun lurking behind the cloud. We shall overcome.
Abdul Bayes is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University.
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