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The tragedy of 'Sidr' and beyond
In the Bangla calendar, 'Aghrayan' is a month we wait for. It heralds the season of harvesting. Optimism and happiness is reflected in the many rituals associated with the festival of 'Nabanno'. It is a time of joy not only in the villages but also in the urban areas.
This time round 'Aghrayan' arrived accompanied by super-cyclone 'Sidr'. The laughter associated with 'Nabanno' was drowned in the pangs of sorrow and devastation unleashed by the brutal force of the storm.
Large swathes of territory in the south and southwestern coastal regions were subjected to apocalyptic fury of extreme proportions. This included the districts of Bagherhat, Barguna, Patuakhali, Pirojepur, Barisal, Jhalakathi, Madaripur, Gopalganj and Bhola and the outlying 'chars' (islands) within their administrative areas.
Weeks after the disaster, the death toll from unofficial sources (based on reports received by NGOs and social community orgnaisations) have crossed 4000. More than a thousand are still missing and unaccounted for according to grief-stricken relatives. Total damage has been assessed at nearly US dollar 2.31 billion.
Preliminary investigations have suggested that nearly 60,000 persons have been injured and will require medical attention for some time. It is also apparent that more than a million rural households have been seriously affected. Exact figures pertaining to destruction of infrastructure is still being worked out. Standing crops on 1.6 million acres have been fully or partially ruined. Translated into anticipated quantity, it will mean a loss of nearly 1 million tonnes. Over 8,000 educational institutions, at different tiers, have been fully or partially destroyed. This will hamper educational activities of nearly 750,000 students.
This enumeration does not include losses sustained by the fishermen and the deep-sea fishing industry (to their sea fishing fleet and nets), by the pisciculture sector (shrimp 'gher' farmers) or by those entrepreneurs involved in 'shutki' (dried fish) processing (an important ingredient and source of protein for most rural households). It will also take some time before a complete census is arrived at with regard to losses sustained in the domestic livestock, poultry and horticulture sectors (a significant source of additional income for the rural community). Then comes the question of damage to flora and fauna in the Sunderbans, the large mangrove forest and a world heritage site. Preliminary aerial assessment has indicated that nearly 20 per cent of the vegetation has been destroyed. It has also revealed the presence of numerous animal carcasses. One can only hope that the very small, endangered Royal Bengal tiger population was spared.
The loss inflicted on life and property, this time round, has probably been less than that of the cyclones of 1970 or 1991. Nevertheless, juxtaposed with massive floods that occurred earlier this year, the cyclone will cast a long shadow not only on the economy of the affected districts but also on the general economic growth of the country. Economists are already scaling down rates of annual economic growth. Our Finance Adviser has disputed such assumptions but reality will probably prove him wrong.
Within the past few days a comprehensive relief and rehabilitation effort has been undertaken, representatives from different sections of the Armed Forces have been assisting civilian official associated with disaster management. Initially, the task was extremely difficult given the many hurdles created by the storm -- the breakdown in connectivity (roads and telecommunication) and absence of already stored food and clean water capacity. This exacerbated the already existing situation created by the storm. Every day we witnessed heart-rending desperation and misery in the media.
Gradually, conditions have started to improve. Unfortunately however there has little evidence of political parties taking any particular initiative regarding relief operations. Some among them have claimed that their relief efforts could have been more widespread had the state emergency been lifted from the affected areas. This appears to be a lame excuse. They could have tried a little harder and associated themselves with the operations being carried out by civil society. Nevertheless, the situation has slowly recovered thanks to better coordination amongst those providing relief and Medicare and those charged with restoring power and inter-connectivity.
International response to this disaster has also helped to alleviate distress through capacity building. The brighter side of international cooperation that was seen after the Tsunami and Cyclone Katrina has been replicated once again after Cyclone Sidr.
The first few days of emergency relief measures have been completed. This has included supply of bottled drinking water, water purification tablets, essential food items, medicines and temporary shelter. Helicopters have played a pivotal role with regard to the distribution process and underlined once again my belief that our Disaster Management authorities should have their own fleet of water transporters as well as helicopters for emergency situations. This government should carefully weigh such a possibility.
We have now entered the next phase. Ferries, road and rail links have been partially restored and this is facilitating relief and rehabilitation operations in a more extensive manner. There is greater constructive engagement than before in the devastated areas. The most critical phase has passed and is slowly giving way to revival and normalcy.
The success of the next phase -- medium and long-term -- will however depend on the implementation of several measures that will require political commitment, dedication and breadth of vision. It will need careful classification of damage sustained to infrastructure and also determination of priority with regard to implementation. Such measures will also have to be identified with the help of local stakeholders minus the negative aspects of contentious political partisanship ahead of a general election.
Some of the important steps that should be focused upon include the following;
(a) Supplying big sized plastic containers to the worst affected areas (where water sources have been contaminated and there is little scope for accessing to ground water due to arsenic contamination) so that purified (through tablets) or boiled or filtered water can be stored for subsequent use;
(b) Arranging 500 large temporary shelters, particularly for the children, women and the elderly (with community feeding facilities based on vulnerable group feeding principles) who have become homeless or are without the essential support of earning members from their families (who have either perished in the cyclone or are missing). VGF cards for 2.6 million people have been planned for four months. This has been a good decision.
(c) Coordination in the supply of seeds, seedlings, fertilizer and agri-credit to those involved in the transplantation process of the boro crop. Special care needs to be taken with regard to fertilizer distribution so that it does not become more controversial than it already is. Greater decentralization will hopefully work better and will lead to a bigger boro crop, so necessary for reducing the food deficit gap for this fiscal year. This is vital given the fact that the international market in recent weeks has seen extraordinary rise in cereal prices.
(d) Remission and re-scheduling of outstanding interest payments arising out of loans received under agricultural credit and micro-credit. At the same time, consistent with policy decisions taken by the government, financial institutions should be encouraged to lend a helping hand by extending less stringent credit, particularly to those involved in horticulture and pisciculture. It has been decided that PKSF will extend micro-credit loans of Taka 130 crore. This is not enough. Greater flexible institutional credit arrangement is required to restore confidence in these sectors. Frozen fish export in particular, is now an important item in our export list with nearly 90 per cent indigenous content. It provides employment to tens of thousands of people and deserves support. The European Commission has already suggested that they are willing to help. We should use this opportunity to enhance our capacity in this sector and also improve on its technology base regarding forward and backward linkages.
(e) Confessional rehabilitation schemes also need to be taken at government initiative. Diverting funds from the annual development budget can do this. This will help the dairy and poultry sectors to regain their economic agility.
(f) Restoration of healthcare services with facilities for specialised care in orthopedics in every Upazila headquarters.
(g) Training community leaders to better understand the implications of early warning forecasts related to hurricanes and storm surges.
(h) Making community radio and mobile telephone connectivity more comprehensive by creating alternative power support, e.g. through greater use of solar panels (to be made available through government subsidy at all community centres at the village level).
(i) Establishing afforestation all along the coast to minimise the effect of storm surges as has been done in certain coastal storm-prone areas in China.
(j) Constructing at least five thousand more elevated concrete cyclone shelters (which can also at normal times be used as schools for informal education or vocational training or as family planning or Medicare centers and also as storage space for emergency provisions) on stilts with adequate enclosed space at the base level for temporary corralling of domestic livestock during times of emergency weather conditions. Building these shelters will require massive resources. This can be raised by levying a special tax of 10 percent for the next five years on all interest earned through savings instruments and fixed deposits as was done during the time of the construction of the Jamuna bridge. A special tax of five per cent could also be levied at the time of registration of new motorized vehicles or registration of property.
Problems related to the future well being of our people would have to be solved by us. Our development partners can assist only up to a point and not beyond. Bangladesh has grown a reputation of being able to tackle natural disasters and then rise again as the Sphinx. We can do it again this time round.
Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net
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