As I See It
The end justifies the means
Saying farewell to an institution that has served in for any length of time can be a wrenching experience, so it must have been for Pervez Musharraf. It has been 46 years since he first wore the uniform of a Gentleman Cadet (GC) of the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA). Handing over the baton to Ashfaq Kayani, he symbolically passed on part of the absolute power he has wielded absolutely for nine long years.
On being appointed COAS Pakistan Army in October 1998, Musharraf became first among equals. Since taking over the reins of the government in Oct 1999, his power had no equal, and it lasted till November 28, 2007. Kayani has now become first among equals. His loyalty to Musharraf notwithstanding, the new COAS would do well to heed what Musharraf repeats endlessly, "Pakistan first."
Musharraf let a hundred flowers bloom in the electronic media and, till he launched his book in late 2006, he revelled in their reciprocatory adulation. When Chief Justice (CJ) of the Supreme Court of Pakistan Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry (a beneficiary of the earlier Provisional Constitution Order (PCO-1)) refused to roll over and play dead in March, as was expected of him, an "ungrateful" media ditched Musharraf and joined the "ungrateful" superior judiciary (all beneficiaries of PCO-1) in open revolt against his reign, the see-saw battle culminating in the proclamation of emergency on November 3, and Musharraf's second Provisional Constitutional Order (or PCO-2).
Notwithstanding many reasons given for the emergency the only real reason was revealed on Thursday November 29, with the swearing-in of the "civilian" president of Pakistan. All things remaining normal, Musharraf has promised to lift emergency and PCO-2 on December 16.
Mohammadmian Soomro, otherwise an excellent human being, is quite unsuited to being the caretaker PM of a government meant to conduct free and fair elections. If miracles were to happen, quite unlikely in this case, and Soomro were to oversee a truly transparent electoral process, the PML (Q) leader (and senate chairman) being a Musharraf-loyalist is a double whammy, and this perception among the public would taint the elections and render the exercise meaningless. The first test for Kayani's loyalty to his mentor is to give Musharraf quiet counsel that it is in his interest, and that of the country's, to ensure that the general elections not only be above board and clean but must also be seen to be such.
A genuinely neutral caretaker cabinet headed by a person of distinction would go a long way in satisfying a great majority of the electorate that the yardstick of fairness and transparency has been met. This would counteract the fact that the losers would still yell to high heaven that they were victims of rigging and manipulation. Free and fair elections will give also Musharraf and the army credibility, which, presently, their collective image has in short supply, both at home and abroad.
With oil at $ 100 per barrel, and many world financial institutions taking heavy losses, particularly in mortgage lending in real-estate, a world economic crisis is looming. If the Pakistani public take to the streets and vent their anger about spiraling prices, unemployment and likely food shortages, mob activity could well lead to anarchy. We cannot afford a political crisis to combine with an economic one. This is not a Doomsday scenario, but the meltdown of the integrity and the sovereignty of the state will surely follow.
Political animal Ms Benazir has taken the mature route of not leaving the field open. Mian Nawaz Sharif, probably a clear winner in the coming elections, has shot himself in the foot by going with the religious parties and threatening a boycott. The MMA, particularly without the JUI (F), does not have a hope in hell of winning even half the electoral power they wielded because of the rigged 2002 elections.
Imran Khan has been consistent in his opposition and has not vacillated, standing his ground on principles is acceptable since he is not tainted with corruption. Despite a loyal hard-core and committed following in almost every constituency, Imran would be hard put to win even a single seat. Because he has nothing to win in the elections, he has nothing to lose, his stand being both compatible and convenient.
There are many who want a definite power-sharing arrangement that ensures that the politicians do not run riot as they did during the period 1988-1999, and the swearing-in of Pervez Musharraf as a civilian president should now be a closed chapter. I still believe that he should have fought the presidential elections without his uniform, given the legal circumstances the end justifies the means.
The "Federalist Papers" were authored in the late 1780's by the two pillars of the US Constitution, Alexander Hamilton (later the first US treasury secretary) and James Madison (later the first US vice-president) with some help from John Jay (who later became the first Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court). In Federalist paper 44 Madison wrote: "no axiom is more clearly established in law or in reason than that wherever the end is required, the means are authorised."
In Lebanon they will vote the serving army chief as president in the next few days, a pragmatic step to ward off anarchy. I wait with bated breath to hear the international reaction, or is their approbation only reserved for Pakistan?
Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry's positive judicial activism led to a situation where martial law was not declared but came into effect by the means of the emergency and PCO-2. A number of excellent judges, including him, have thus been lost to us. To quote Ron Chevron in his Biography of Alexander Hamilton: "Both Hamilton and Madison were rational men who assumed that people often acted irrationally because of ambition and avarice.
Madison said that if men were angels no government would be necessary. Both Madison and Hamilton wanted to erect barriers against irrational popular impulses and tyrannical minorities and majorities, public opinion being distilled by skeptical, sober-minded representatives. In a big, heterogeneous country, Madison argued in Federalist paper 51, conflicting interests should neutralise one another, checking abuse of power, let ambition counteract ambition!"
The major problem facing Pakistan's democracy is the "first past the post" system, allowing a tyrannical minority in each constituency to become elected representatives of the people. If anyone does not win a clear majority, a "run-off" election between the first two candidates gives the electorate a clear choice. Moreover "Proportional Representation" is a must. Imran Khan and his hard-core following of 12000-15000 in almost every constituency may end up having more votes nationally than either the MMA or the MQM, but may not win a single seat in the National or Provisional Assemblies compared to the dozens and dozens these parties get, and very correctly so.
This exercise, which is not complicated and captures the real essence of democracy, will give some say to the likes of Imran Khan and for those who vote for people like him. If the political parties boycott the election, it will be a great opportunity for Musharraf to delay the elections even beyond March 2008, and do the right thing for Pakistan by having a genuinely neutral caretaker regime supervise accountability and elections thereof.
Ikram Sehgal is an eminent Pakistani political analyst and columnist.
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