As I See It
Double or quits?
ACCORDING to Ms. Benazir, the PPP will win 150 NA seats in the Jan 8 elections. This magic "150" figure has also been confidently claimed by both Mian Nawaz Sharif for PML (N) and Ch. Shujaat Hussain for PML (Q). The grand total of 450 NA seats claimed by the three leaders exceeds by a cool 178 the 272 NA seats being contested. Given that MQM, MMA (represented by JUI (F) and three other religious parties), ANP, the 8 or 9 political parties in Balochistan which usually win 1 or 2 seats each, and independents all over the country will manage 50-55 seats between them, leaving a maximum of about 220 seats between the three major parties, which is less than half being claimed by them.
These leaders tend to be claimants of more than double the seats which they would normally win. Do they do this in everything? One would be prudent to reduce by half whatever they say about themselves, and ,by that analogy, about others.
Given that their own projections can hardly be met, both PPP and PML (N) have laid the basis for yelling "rigging and manipulation" to high heaven after the Jan 8 election. It's double or quits!
If the PML (Q) tally does not reach the 150 magic figure, Ch Shujaat Hussain will probably write it off as inefficiency of the Pervez Elahi rigging machine (PERM).
Coincidentally, they have one thing in common -- in their party manifestos there is deafening silence about accountability, the major priority of the Pakistani populace. Given their track records, one understands their reticence!
The vastly inflated claims of the party leaders notwithstanding, by being blatantly partial in the make-up of the caretaker set-up and given the particularly of the Election Commission (EC), the government has only added to the general perception among the masses that major election chicanery is in the offing.
Even though the caretaker government can hardly influence the elections in the short time available, with the officials of the EC, public officials, as well as police on duty at the polling stations, and the Local Bodies infra-structure personnel in place, the perception of partiality very much exists.
Supporting them will be the various intelligence agencies, the interference by their personnel being directly proportional to the priority given to each candidate.
All parties claim to be "holier-than-thou," wherever they can get away with ballot stuffing or intimidation they will do so. Local electoral skulduggery in every constituency is not only at the behest of the government, in many cases the influence of the candidate in his constituency, whatever his party affiliation, will be the measure of fraud being perpetrated.
Technically Nazims, Naib Nazims etc. do not belong to any party, but this is a patent farce, nearly all of them have party affiliation and are capable of influencing the elections for their favourites at the polling booth. There is a strong case for suspending the Local Bodies for the duration of the elections, or even dissolve them.
Approximately 220-230 seats will be shared between PPP, PML (N) and PML (Q). More than half (about 130) of these would be won by the candidates irrespective of their party affiliation, or rigging and manipulation.
As such, there are actually about 80-90 constituencies where official or unofficial manipulation can overturn the people's choice. An overwhelming number of these (around 70) are in the Punjab, here PERM is poised to commit electoral fraud (mostly to the detriment of PML (N) (40 seats) and PPP (25 seats), to paraphrase President Musharraf's words about Jan 8 (admittedly in a different context), "come hell or high water!"
The best effort of PERM may not succeed everywhere; PML (N) may lose 20, and PPP about 10, seats. Rigging notwithstanding (given that it cannot be eliminated altogether), PPP should get 80-85 seats, PML (N) 75-80 and PML (Q) 70-75.
Independent observers and the media should focus on those constituencies where electoral fraud is most likely. Ballot stuffing, etc. will not be widespread in all polling stations but will happen in selected ones; "target" stations can be earmarked with the help of candidates.
Those who commit irregularities know this and will attempt to avoid (or deflect) any focus. The independent observers and media should, therefore, maximise their presence in the 80-90 constituencies where electoral manipulation is most likely, coordinating deployment of mobile teams (kept in reserve) to those polling stations where electoral fraud is reported. This may not totally prevent misdemeanours, but will certainly act as a deterrent to widespread rigging.
Those inimical to Pakistan have spent tons of money and effort in a well-coordinated multi-directional, multi-disciplinary effort. One does not normally subscribe to conspiracy theories, but this one had too much smoke for a fire not to be present. The NEWSWEEK article declaring Pakistan "the most dangerous place on Earth" was the crowning piece.
If we are to take what some of the international media says to be the gospel truth, countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, etc. rank far below us. The 70 districts in India (nearly 12% of the total districts, 18% of the population) where the 1,00,000 or so Naxalities (who call themselves terrorists) collect revenue instead of the government do not seem to count!
Despite the fact that the army contingents (less the intelligence personnel on duty with various agencies) remain some distance from the polling booth and have nothing to do with ballot stuffing etc., their presence in the vicinity means the stage is set for them to be set upon internationally and domestically for the misdoings of others.
What steps is the military hierarchy taking to ensure that this perception is not reinforced after the Jan 8 election? Instead of being "fall guys" and remaining a recurring part of the problem, it is time to look for permanent solutions for the sake of the uniform.
Whether there is a fair election or a rigged one, only the numbers will change. There will be a hung parliament; and whatever Ms. Benazir may profess at the moment, her party is poised to come into an alliance with the PML (Q) at the Federal level and in Punjab. This will leave the PML (N), which will be the majority party in the Punjab, out in the cold.
This leaves Pervez Musharraf very much in place, ruling the roost as a "civilian" president; does he really need to go in for overkill? The bad news is that a straw poll conducted among those who know him well for over four decades concluded that he was incapable of letting go; it is not in his personality profile to stay above the fray.
Loyalty is a two-way street; for having him elected as a "civilian" president, Musharraf owes the army loyalty in return. What better way for him to express this loyalty than to ensure free and fair elections so that the army's image and reputation is not sullied anymore.
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