As I see It
Flirting with disaster
THE most devastating cyclone in recorded history hit the coastal areas of (then) East Pakistan on Friday Nov 13, 1970. The full extent of the disaster was not apparent even 4-5 days later. Estimates of those who perished ranged from 500,000 to upwards of 2 million, the population of dozens of islands in the Bay of Bengal were washed away along with the entire livestock of the area. For the handful of helicopter pilots who flew from before dawn to after dusk, ferrying relief to those who survived, the images of death and destruction wrought by mother nature can never really be wiped away from memory.
Operations at Dhaka Airport in Nov/Dec 1970 involved dozens of aircraft bringing in relief goods landing every hour. This involved parking the aircraft, unloading the goods, sorting, loading and dispatching the relief material by helicopters or by trucks, and on by rail and river. Col (later Maj Gen) Naseerullah Khan Babar commanded the Army Aviation contingent, reinforcing Logistic Flight (Log Flt) Eastern Command, superbly led by the soft-spoken Maj (later Brig) Tirmizi. Col Babar proceeded to take over the entire relief operation at Dhaka Airport lock, stock and barrel. Not many in (now) Bangladesh and Pakistan know that millions of people, short of food, water, medical relief and shelter in virtually inaccessible coastal areas and islands, owe their existence to the energy and dynamism of this one man, the difference between life and death for many.
Given the tragic situation availing on the ground in East Pakistan in Nov 1970, and with all troops of Eastern Command committed 24 hours to "Cyclone Relief' duties, there was strong enough reason to postpone the general elections scheduled for December 1970. The delay in sending helicopters from West Pakistan, and in greater numbers, was exploited as an anti-Pakistan feeling, exacerbated by the fact of dozens of helicopters from other countries taking part in the relief operations. Public perception did not take into account that we daily flew 4-5 times as much as the others, and continued to do so without rest or relief for weeks.
With the tragic assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto a political cyclone of sorts has hit Pakistan, the trauma reinforced by the bloody spill-over into the streets. Tensions are now already on edge. If the elections take place in the manner they are ordained, ie. rigged, and we have no reason as yet to believe otherwise, we will be faced with a catastrophe of the biggest magnitude, equaling, if not surpassing, the events and conclusion of 1971. One would prefer that the elections are held as scheduled, the prospect of the situation spiraling into anarchy is too alarming to simply brush aside.
Whatever one may think about the opposition's claims, their fears are well-founded that the elections will be manipulated. From all information available, the rigging mechanism has been programmed to win nearly 90-100 of the 148 NA seats available in the Punjab, about 50 more than that they would really get. The bloc of seats will see him safely, in a coalition with both like-minded MQM and JUI (F) as well as unnamed others, into the PM's seat. The uniformed army will not be a party in this fraud, but the involvement of some of its personnel in the intelligence agencies is more than possible.
With nothing to do with the malpractices at the polling stations and in the country, the army will still get all the blame. Will "civilian" President Pervez Musharraf subject the army that he loves so much to be so outrageously defamed as "electoral cheats" for the sins (and benefit) of others, particularly Mr Pervez Elahi? The irony is that, in the very same breath of ostracising the army for rigging and manipulation, the opposition parties are saying that free and fair polls can only be held under the supervision of the army.
The mathematics of seats is quite clear, out of the 272 NA seats being contested, at the very least about 55 will be taken by MQM, JUI (F), ANP, Balochistan Nationalist parties, independents, etc. That leaves 217 seats. Without any rigging whatsoever, PML (Q) will get at the very least 45-50 seats. Let us take the minimum of 45 seats, leaving a balance of 172 seats. At the maximum, PPP will have 85 seats plus minus 5 seats, i.e. a maximum of 90 seats, and PML (N) 80 seats plus minus 5 seats i.e. a maximum of 85 seats, the gain and/or loss at the cost of each other.
Both PPP and PML (N) are claiming overwhelming victory, i.e. 130 seats or so, about 40-45 more than they could presently get even in a fair election process. If they do not get what they are projecting, they will claim that the elections were rigged even if they are not, "casus belli" for resorting to mass agitation and protests. That, in fact, is their objective, to create mayhem in the streets and force President Pervez Musharraf out of office.
The PPP has been very brave (and politically smart) in insisting that the elections be held as scheduled on Jan 8 despite of the martyrdom of Ms Benazir Bhutto. The party will certainly benefit from the sympathy vote. So, PPP is right in trying to maintain the momentum, moreover, as the days go by, there are bound to be cracks in the party's ranks for many reasons. While one sympathises with them, not only for the loss of a great and charismatic leader and the opportunity they had for the Jan 8 elections, the stakes for the country are too much to be risked. As a national party the PPP has to bear with the disadvantage of the delayed polls; what better service to Ms Benazir's memory than to consolidate and do better at a later electoral exercise?
The tragedy is that "the great silent majority" may not remain silent, their protest will become violent and even with the army intervening physically this could go out of control, far exceeding the level of anarchy witnessed in the aftermath of Dec 29, 2007. The situation is, therefore, tailor-made for either or both of the parties to yell "rigging" to high heaven; even if no rigging takes place the protests will take to the streets. Even if delayed, unless the general elections are held under the patronage of a genuinely neutral caretaker cabinet and an above board Election Commission duly re-constituted to represent a free and fair electoral process, and seen by public perception to be such, the results will not be accepted by either the majority of the population or the world. This is Pakistan's Catch-22, damned if you will, damned if you won't.
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