Bottom Line
South Korea's presidential election
On December 20, the conservative South Korean president-elect, Lee Myung-bak, (66) a former successful Mayor of Seoul, and a former executive of Hyundai, won the election in a landslide victory, defeating the ruling party's candidate, despite being hampered by allegation of stocks manipulation and other financial misdeeds several years ago.
Lee had won 48.6% of the vote. His victory hands power back to the conservative Grand National Party (GNP). Lee, who had been widely expected to triumph in the ballot, will replace incumbent Roh Moo-hyun on February 25, 2008. Some say the victory of the conservatives over the liberals represents a shift from idealism to pragmatism.
Lee, throughout the campaign, pushed an "economy first" message. He presented himself as a get-things-done leader who could salvage the economy from a decade of low growth under the two successive liberal governments. South Koreans appeared to have favoured the economic growth message
Chung, of the governing liberal United New Democratic Party (UNDP), had earlier conceded the election, saying: "I accept what the people decided today. I hope president-elect Lee Myung-bak will lead the country well," he told Reuters news agency.
Lee's victory ends a decade of liberal rule, during which left-leaning South Korean policies led to unprecedented reconciliation with the North, including two visits of the South Korean presidents to North Korea for summit meetings. The summit last October resulted in a number of joint projects aimed at helping North Korea's economy while skirting around the nuclear topic.
Washington and Tokyo have been critical of the "sunshine policy" introduced by Nobel laureate President Kim Dae-jung in 1997. Sunshine policy's main tenet is reconciliation with North Korea.
The "sunshine policy" has caused friction with Washington and Tokyo, especially over how to address North Korea's nuclear program and its human rights abuses.
During his last visit to Washington, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun put President Bush in an awkward position by asking him to explain and clarify US policy toward North Korea.
Proposed tough policies
On December 21, one day after his stunning victory, Lee declared that he would not hesitate to criticise the North Korean Communist government, pledging to get tough with North Korea. He said that the issue of human rights in North Korea was something South Korea could not avoid, and North Korea should know it. The new, tough approach may improve relations with Washington and Tokyo. Tom Casey, a spokesman for the US State Department, congratulated Lee and reportedly said : "We look forward to working with him and his new government." Lee has already met the Japanese Ambassador Shigeie and said that he would work to improve bilateral ties Lee's victory would be welcome news for those South Koreans who believe that Roh and his predecessor Kim did not put enough pressure on North Korea to bring home thousands of relatives allegedly kidnapped by the North during and after the 1950-53 Korean War. President-elect Lee indicated that he would do something his predecessor avoided, vigorously raise nuclear issues during inter-Korean talks. Lee's government will review all the agreements with North Korea, and it seems that many of them may be scrapped. Serious economic agreements between the two Koreas can only be made after the North dismantles its nuclear weapons. There is a speculation that Lee might not continue aid on conditions of family re-unions separated between the Koreas. Lee's government would like to see overall improvement in human rights in the country before aid is committed. Will hard-line policies work?
North Korea's inclusion in President Bush's axis of evil in 2002, US insistence that the UN watch dog IAEA complete its inspection of reactors, and cutting-off of supply of heavy fuel oil by US from December 2002 did not work, instead, North Korea cancelled all dialogues on the nuclear program, got out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and expelled the UN inspectors. President Bush had finally to revert to a policy of dialogue with North Korea. Only when the US agreed to North Korea's terms, it conceded that it would stop its nuclear program at Yongbyon reactor. It is noted that North Korea has not yet completely destroyed all nuclear plants. There is a question whether South Korea's tough policies would be consistent with Washington's current flexible approach because Washington wants a completely "de-nuclearised" North Korea. It is not known how China will react to Lee's hard-line policies. It was China which brought North Korea to the negotiating table to halt its nuclear program. If South Korea puts pressure on North Korea, the Korean peninsula would likely be again the source of destabilisation in the Asia Pacific region. Some observers believe that the proposed hard-line policies of South Korea may be counter-productive because North Korea's leaderships generally do not bow down to pressure, they, rather, react negatively. Furthermore, the election was won to revive the economy, and North Korea hardly figured in voters' decision this time. Given this scenario, Lee's change of policy may not have the support of the majority of the people of South Korea if the Korean peninsula experiences tension. Furthermore, Ahn Byung Jin, a Professor at Kyung Hee Cyber University, said that with Lee's election, South Koreans were going on a "blind date" with economic growth, with both hope and fear about what the decision might bring. Many observers say president-elect Lee's proposed hard-line policies may not work for a regime that wants inclusion but not exclusion. A Washington-Tokyo-Seoul alliance to change the existing "sunshine policy" would arguably be a mistake. Another fact is that the South Korean conservative leadership tends to forget that South Korea hosts US military troops in the country, and that North Korea claims that its legitimate security concerns are not addressed by Japan and South Korea. It argues that when US allies encircle it, it has to rely upon its security by developing missiles and nuclear weapons. This is a cold reality. Dialogue, and not confrontation, seems to resolve inter-state disputes. The European Union invested heavily for economic prosperity in Ireland, and the result is that prosperity has led to the reconciliation between the Protestants and Catholics. Accordingly, South Korea's soft policies may eventually succeed in bringing peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula. The wish for peace is universal, and it is hoped that, with the pursuit of hard-line policies, the Korean Peninsula will not pose a threat to international peace and security. There are enough political global dynamics that cause concern about the ineffectiveness of the UN. Barrister Harun ur Rashid is Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
On December 21, one day after his stunning victory, Lee declared that he would not hesitate to criticise the North Korean Communist government, pledging to get tough with North Korea. He said that the issue of human rights in North Korea was something South Korea could not avoid, and North Korea should know it. The new, tough approach may improve relations with Washington and Tokyo. Tom Casey, a spokesman for the US State Department, congratulated Lee and reportedly said : "We look forward to working with him and his new government." Lee has already met the Japanese Ambassador Shigeie and said that he would work to improve bilateral ties Lee's victory would be welcome news for those South Koreans who believe that Roh and his predecessor Kim did not put enough pressure on North Korea to bring home thousands of relatives allegedly kidnapped by the North during and after the 1950-53 Korean War. President-elect Lee indicated that he would do something his predecessor avoided, vigorously raise nuclear issues during inter-Korean talks. Lee's government will review all the agreements with North Korea, and it seems that many of them may be scrapped. Serious economic agreements between the two Koreas can only be made after the North dismantles its nuclear weapons. There is a speculation that Lee might not continue aid on conditions of family re-unions separated between the Koreas. Lee's government would like to see overall improvement in human rights in the country before aid is committed. Will hard-line policies work?
North Korea's inclusion in President Bush's axis of evil in 2002, US insistence that the UN watch dog IAEA complete its inspection of reactors, and cutting-off of supply of heavy fuel oil by US from December 2002 did not work, instead, North Korea cancelled all dialogues on the nuclear program, got out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and expelled the UN inspectors. President Bush had finally to revert to a policy of dialogue with North Korea. Only when the US agreed to North Korea's terms, it conceded that it would stop its nuclear program at Yongbyon reactor. It is noted that North Korea has not yet completely destroyed all nuclear plants. There is a question whether South Korea's tough policies would be consistent with Washington's current flexible approach because Washington wants a completely "de-nuclearised" North Korea. It is not known how China will react to Lee's hard-line policies. It was China which brought North Korea to the negotiating table to halt its nuclear program. If South Korea puts pressure on North Korea, the Korean peninsula would likely be again the source of destabilisation in the Asia Pacific region. Some observers believe that the proposed hard-line policies of South Korea may be counter-productive because North Korea's leaderships generally do not bow down to pressure, they, rather, react negatively. Furthermore, the election was won to revive the economy, and North Korea hardly figured in voters' decision this time. Given this scenario, Lee's change of policy may not have the support of the majority of the people of South Korea if the Korean peninsula experiences tension. Furthermore, Ahn Byung Jin, a Professor at Kyung Hee Cyber University, said that with Lee's election, South Koreans were going on a "blind date" with economic growth, with both hope and fear about what the decision might bring. Many observers say president-elect Lee's proposed hard-line policies may not work for a regime that wants inclusion but not exclusion. A Washington-Tokyo-Seoul alliance to change the existing "sunshine policy" would arguably be a mistake. Another fact is that the South Korean conservative leadership tends to forget that South Korea hosts US military troops in the country, and that North Korea claims that its legitimate security concerns are not addressed by Japan and South Korea. It argues that when US allies encircle it, it has to rely upon its security by developing missiles and nuclear weapons. This is a cold reality. Dialogue, and not confrontation, seems to resolve inter-state disputes. The European Union invested heavily for economic prosperity in Ireland, and the result is that prosperity has led to the reconciliation between the Protestants and Catholics. Accordingly, South Korea's soft policies may eventually succeed in bringing peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula. The wish for peace is universal, and it is hoped that, with the pursuit of hard-line policies, the Korean Peninsula will not pose a threat to international peace and security. There are enough political global dynamics that cause concern about the ineffectiveness of the UN. Barrister Harun ur Rashid is Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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