PM in China
THIS was the first visit to China in five years by an Indian prime minister. As is invariably the case, top-level visits from India to China create a wave of interest and encourage extensive commentaries about the issues to be addressed, the history of bilateral ties, and the future prospects for the relationship. This is only to be expected, for China always commands deep interest here and such visits bring out a variety of viewpoints on how Sino-Indian ties stand and where they may be headed.
In this respect, Dr. Manmohan Singh's journey to Beijing was no different from other earlier ones, being wreathed in speculation and anticipation when it began and subject to close scrutiny when it was over. Each such visit yields a major document, in this case a "Vision Document" that the prime minister signed with his counterpart. These documents demand close reading, for they chart the path of advancement in mutual understanding on a wide variety of issues.
These are not dramatic statements with a rhetorical tinge, but calm, careful compilations that record the positions and commitments of the parties. These communiqués are milestones in a slowly advancing, incremental process.
The measured, steady path they have adopted tells us something about the current state of the relationship between these two large Asian countries. Relations are on an even keel and progressing in an orderly fashion. Not all the shadows of the past have been dispelled, notably differences on the boundary, but yet there is sufficient mutual confidence to bring them together in some crucial areas. Thus, they have been able to make common cause in the WTO where it was once assumed that they were likely to be on opposite sides, as rivals for the same advantages.
True, they have their trade rivalries in certain areas, but they are also able to cooperate and stand together on some key trade issues. In forums other than trade, too, they have been able to harmonise their stands, conspicuously in the negotiations on climate change.
The prime minister's Beijing visit is to be assessed against this pattern of diplomatic contact between the two countries. Like earlier prime ministerial visits, it was not cast as something essentially innovative or path breaking. Even so, it has been pointed out that some sort of personal stamp can be discerned in the outcome, something to suggest that useful advances in some important matters have been achieved through the leader's high level intervention. Such are the references in the "Vision Document" to China's readiness to cooperate more closely with India in civilian nuclear matters.
Similarly, what China has to say about supporting India's aspirations to a greater role at the UN, including the Security Council, could be presented as a significant commitment. A closer, more critical reading might suggest that on these issues important to India there has been no real change of position by China. Nor, in truth, could any such change have been expected; the structure of the visit and the diplomatic procedures adopted by both sides virtually preclude any basic innovations of this nature during a formal state visit. Nevertheless, the marginally more helpful formulations on these subjects in the final document are not without value.
How, then, to make an assessment of what transpired? Perhaps one can suggest that the visit itself was more important than any documents or agreements that came from it. Over the years, a regular exchange of visits of top-level leaders has come to be instituted as a feature of India-China relations. Through such means, the chill has gone from their ties. Instead, there is a deliberate projection of normality, of good and equable relations.
The words and the agreements that accompany such occasions are, of course, important and valuable, but the real point is made by the steady and consistent leadership exchanges themselves. They bespeak a mutual willingness to maintain friendship and good relations, and a desire to advance them further. These formal state occasions are not to be seen in terms of any sort of leap forward on the border, or the UN, or nuclear cooperation, important as all these subjects are, but as an affirmation of friendship and a willingness to develop closer ties.
The extra courtesies that were extended to the prime minister, like a private dinner by his opposite number in addition to the state banquet, reinforce the message. Dr. Singh's presence in Beijing will serve to keep the momentum going in the relationship, to underline the new opportunities that have arisen, and to encourage further effort by each side.
The boundary issue cannot be tucked out of sight in the course of a visit like that of Dr. Manmohan Singh's. It weighs more heavily here than it does in China, where the new generation may have little awareness of its implications. But it remains the most intractable problem between the two countries. Over the last two decades and more, negotiations between the two parties have been taking place, and gradually the pace and level of consultations has been stepped up.
It is now in the hands of senior special representatives to do something to bridge the gap. Maybe the prime minister's visit will speed up the process. This is bound to remain a sensitive and difficult matter and, even if the pace of the negotiations is stepped up, there is no guarantee of an early outcome. What is encouraging, nevertheless, is that the border issue has not prevented the growth of cooperation in security matters, as evidenced in the recent joint exercises by Indian and Chinese security personnel in Kunming. A further exercise is to take place before long in Rajasthan. On this front, the two countries have been able to identify a common enemy, terrorism, and to combine their effort to deal with it.
The visit laid emphasis on the development of trade and economic relations between the two countries. Accompanying the prime minister were a number of senior figures from commercial and industrial bodies, to drive home the importance of this area in the bilateral scheme of things. Trade targets have been driven upward, for the 2010 target of $40 billion has already been more or less achieved.
So trade is booming, but, with it, new anxieties have surfaced. There is a substantial trade imbalance in favour of China, though not yet such as to induce alarm in India. What has been heard more loudly is the fear that China's pricing policies and currency management represent a threat to Indian manufacturers, now that freer access for Chinese goods has become available.
Similar complaints have been heard in the USA and elsewhere. It comes as a reminder that, as both countries grow and as globalisation advances, such economic issues will assume a higher profile in India-China relations.
The prime minister's China visit is yet another step in stabilising and consolidating relations with this important neighbour. That it went well and opened fresh avenues augurs well for the future.
Courtesy: The Statesman.
Salman Haider is India's former Foreign Secretary.
Courtesy: The Statesman.
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