Straight Talk
Margin of error
It is said that King Richard III of England lost the Battle of Bosworth Field in 1485 when his horse's shoe came loose, throwing him to the ground. His troops were in retreat against the forces of Henry, Earl of Richmond, and Richard was trying one last ditch attempt to rally them when his horse lost one of its shoes and fell.
"A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!" Richard is said to have screamed as his troops fled in panic and Henry's forces closed in around him, bringing the battle, his kingship, and his life, to an end.
Legend has it that Richard, in a hurry to reach the battle-field, had not waited for his horse to be shod properly by the local blacksmith and that he rode into battle with one nail missing from one of his horse's shoes. It was due to this missing nail that the shoe eventually came loose in the thick of battle, hence the nursery rhyme:
"For want of a nail a shoe was lost / For want of a shoe a horse was lost / For want of a horse a rider was lost / For want of a rider a battle was lost / For want of a battle a kingdom was lost / ... and all for the want of a horseshoe nail."
I wonder what went through the head of the chief adviser as Dhaka university campus erupted. A seemingly minor altercation between students and army personnel at a football game -- and within hours the interim government is facing its first existential crisis.
And crisis is the right word. What started as a small protest on DU campus soon spread to different localities all over Dhaka and around the country. Cars and buses were torched and buildings smashed. Things threatened to get so out of hand that the government declared a curfew on August 22 to contain the problem.
It must have struck the chief adviser as ironic that after seven months of high-profile arrests and power shortages and rising prices that it was over a few ill-chosen words and actions that his government faced its most severe test so far.
It is always tricky being a caretaker government. Caretaker governments by definition have no political base. This is their great weakness as well as their great strength. The strength lies in the fact that they are, by their very composition (in this case, at least) non-political and thus non-partisan. They can preside over everyday affairs of state without taking sides and can therefore deliver a free and fair election (their intended function under the constitution) or can level the playing field and clean up the system (as this government is doing).
But their weakness is that even when they have well-wishers, they do not have active supporters. They do not have cadres or loyalists or people who will take to the streets to defend them when the chips are down.
This makes their existence extremely precarious and explains why every caretaker government we have ever had (even the last one) thus far has been so keen to get out of the firing line as soon as is humanly possible: to hold elections within 90 days and then get out.
But this government is different. It is not in for 90 days. By the time elections are held, if all goes according to schedule, it will have held power for almost two years. That's a long time for a government without a political base. That's a long time for nothing to go wrong.
And, of course, things will go wrong. It's Murphy's Law. And, truthfully, as far as this government is concerned, just about everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong. Minus two. Minus one. Prices. Power. Jute. Floods. Court cases. The only saving grace was that it hadn't had to face any serious protest, at least until August 20.
So what is the lesson to be learned from this incident? The lesson is that the smallest of sparks can derail things and bring the country to the brink of catastrophe.
Yes, none of this would have happened had the police been more restrained in corralling the protesters. Yes, none of this would have happened had there not been pockets of resentment and opposition already built up due to the government's failure to control prices and other issues.
But the lesson, surely, is that everything began with a trifling altercation at a football match.
The lesson, therefore, for the interim government and its backers is that their margin for error is pretty close to zero. There is nothing either the chief adviser or the army chief can do to stop these kinds of altercations. Despite their best efforts, friction is inevitable.
The government even quickly and sensibly acceded to the demands of the protesters to remove the army camp from the DU campus. But it was not enough. Thus, even when the government has done nothing wrong, it still remains vulnerable, such is the nature of their current situation.
There will always be opposition to this government.
There are those who want this government to fail so that they can return to power. There are those who have been mistreated by this government and are filled with anger and the desire for retribution. There are those who feel that they have waited patiently for seven months but have received nothing for their pains. There are those who think that we have gone long enough with a non-elected government in office.
This will be constant. No government can make everyone happy. There will always be discontent. And, as we have seen, sometimes there will be discontent even when the government is initially blameless. Those are the breaks.
So what can this government do to protect itself?
The only thing that will keep this government out of trouble is if it understands that its margin for error is near zero, or even less, if that is possible.
If the smallest of sparks can start up a fire, it is important to ensure that there are no sparks. But if sparks are unavoidable, as they seem to be, then perhaps it is time to reconsider whether it is wise to keep the tinder so dry.
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