Matters Around Us
What will the new year bring?
AS the world steps into the new-year, speculations abound all over about how things will shape up politically, economically, and otherwise on a global scale. Certainly, 2007 had been a year of many events that were important for many countries in both the positive and the negative directions.
As a sequel to all these developments, the new-year, too, will witness manifold repercussions that will remain subjects of debate, discussion and analysis throughout 2008. Besides, some events -- seen as extra-ordinarily important -- will dominate the global stage this year and, not surprisingly, the presidential election of the United States is at the top of the list. Indeed, the countdown of the race for the exalted position of the world's only superpower has already begun hogging expected prominence in the international media.
Undeniably, the election remains the cynosure of all eyes for obvious reasons. Additionally, the conflicts that continue to threaten world peace and stability may acquire new dimensions in the new year, which is another area of interest and curiosity for the observers of the international scenario. Furthermore, internal events of several nations, like the coming national elections in Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, are also events that merit attention.
Another South Asian country, India, the world's largest democracy, may also witness national polls by the year-end although the balloting is scheduled for next year. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) alliance may consider advancing the polls, as was done by the previous National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. In the event of an early election in India, the South Asia scene promises to be more interesting.
Definitely, it is the American elections that are the main subject of discussions, not only in that country but also across the world, for understandable factors. Gone are the days when the United States used to be one of two superpowers, as the collapse of the former communist giant Soviet Union changed the global power balance and, consequently, America emerged as the only great power -- which is even described as a "Mega Power."
The president of the US is a chief executive with enormous power and, evidently, this position influences global events in many ways. Washington seeks to call the shots politically, militarily, and economically because it is the strongest nation on earth. The president, conscious of the considerable clout, generally spares no effort to make others know about the power and significance of the office.
However, it also varies from individual to individual, and there is hardly any dispute over the fact that incumbent George Bush is the best example of one who likes to apply the power. His eight year era -- covering two terms -- is coming to a close, but his is the period that will remain for discussion and debate for a long time because the world experienced many major developments mainly due to his policy that jolted contemporary world history.
The race for the White House is very much noticeable now, as the hopefuls have swung into their desperate bid to adorn the highest office of the world's strongest nation. The tension is very much palpable, and competition at the moment is for winning the party nominations -- an essential ingredient of the elections procedure.
The two parties -- President Bush's Republican and opposition Democrat -- are out to choose their nominees as the primaries in different states are taking place in the midst of the grueling process. As the picture emerges, Senator Hillary Clinton is making a strong effort to win the Democrat nomination and then the presidency to become first woman chief executive in American history. No less serious is Senator Barack Obama, who could also become the first black president, while some others are also in the fray.
In the Republican camp, quite a few are there for the nominations. As things stand now, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain look toward the next battle for an unpredictable White House race after scoring tough wins in the primaries in the south and the west. However, the process continues, and it is uncertain who will finally be the nominees for the presidency. There are also candidates outside the two major parties.
While the American election is a routine event, coming every fours year and arousing expected interest all over the world, this time it has a different meaning because of a variety of reasons. The global political landscape that has undergone a drastic change in the Bush period is poised for a reversal or changes, at least on the Iraq crisis and some other issues, if a Democrat takes the White House.
Obama is fierce in his criticism of the presence of American troops in Iraq while Hillary, who initially supported the US action in Iraq, is now calling for troops withdrawal sensing the American public opinion. The US is paying a heavy price economically and militarily in Iraq, and the people in that country wonder what they have achieved by the invasion and involvement in the Arab country. Other issues surrounding the world scenario can also witness changes in case a Democrat goes to the White House, the chances of which seem bright after a Bush era that is of late being largely characterised as unpopular mainly because of administration's faux pas in foreign policy highlighted by the Iraq war.
True, the stand-off with Iran on the nuclear issue, the Afghan situation, crisis in the Korean Peninsula and, importantly, the Middle East crisis may not experience much change with a Democrat president; nevertheless some changes will be discernible. If the Republicans, rather unexpectedly, succeed in retaining the presidency, there could still be a change in approach -- may not be qualitatively -- when Bush is not there at the helm.
A president's own style of functioning also matters in developing and executing policies. In any case, the US presidential election is the single most talked-about event scheduled for the current year.
The world will see during 2008 whether communist legend, aging Fidel Castro of Cuba remains in the center stage of his country and the world communist movement. Failing health has forced him to take a back seat, and it is not clear if he will stage a comeback. Another world leader, President Vladimir Putin of the now-democratic Russian federation, chalks out his strategy to remain on the stage in his country.
The coming election will show whether he continues to be powerful from the backstage or evolves a mechanism to remain at the helm. New leaders of other key nations like Britain and France will be under strict scrutiny of their people after the premature exit of Tony Blair and a successful ending of tenure by Jacques Chirac. China's importance, both economically and politically, is on the increase, and this will also be closely watched in the new year.
Last but not the least, whether the Tehran-Washington rift will be further exacerbated, snowballing into a major crisis, is also an important area of intense debates. The world is divided on whether president Bush would finally opt for military steps against Iran.
Nearer home, developments in Pakistan, following the tragic assassination of former premier and PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, will be interesting for the topsy-turvy politics of that country, while elections and related matters in some other South Asian nations will also be subjects of immense interest regionally and internationally. On the whole, 2008, in all probability, will be a year of many events that generate both tension and acclamation. Analysts are keeping their fingers crossed on the eventual outcome of these important issues.
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