As I See It
National compromise
The country seems to have been transfixed into immobility on the rail-tracks by the on-rushing lights of an express freight train in the form of the February 18 elections. President Pervez Musharraf and his supporters are standing on one side of the tracks while the opposition political parties are on the other. From time to time, suicide bombers remind us that the situation can become far more explosive. Neither is prepared to blink first, i.e. any move by either side to save Pakistan from the approaching disaster will be taken as a sign of weakness by the other.
A recent meeting with the president during this hour of crisis only highlighted the country's Catch-22 situation. The word "dictator" does describe Musharraf in the technical sense, and yet does not do justice to him. Fully aware of the impending law and order, and economic and political problems, he willingly entered into a responsive exchange without "shooting the messenger bringing bad tidings."
Very few people wielding absolute power will enter a debate on issues that would certainly not be palatable. If he felt irritation or impatience he did not show it. He did show his exasperation that every attempt at compromise he has made has been rebuffed, taken as a sign of weakness rather than a genuine attempt to resolve issues. He maintains his willingness to reconcile provided the opposition shows some reciprocity.
One is hoping that he has something up his sleeve; that something may be cooking on the back-burner, a desperate (and perhaps forlorn) wish that the country may be spared the catastrophe looming before us.
Even with all the charisma Ms. Benazir could bring to bear on the Pakistani electorate, the PPP as the single largest party may not get a simple majority in the present and in the foreseeable future. After her tragic demise, Asif Zardari has moved with great dexterity to shore up both the party and the family fortunes (pun intended). His own person being controversial among the party faithful who blame him mostly for the corruption stigma that smeared the Bhutto name, naming Bilawal as co-chairman was a masterstroke to preserve the party unity in the short term.
His stance for an early election is also correct, to cash in on the sympathy vote. How long can he hold the party's loyalty in line, given his many weaknesses and the gradual dissipation of the Bhutto magic? It does not help that Fatima Bhutto and Zulfikar, Jr are waiting in the wings as the real Bhuttos.
The PPP's final tally will be directly proportional to the quantum of rigging in the Punjab; however, even a genuinely free and fair election would not get them more than about 90 seats, far less than a simple majority. His pre-election claims are simply jockeying for post-election advantage. If PPP does not join a national coalition government, the faithful will desert in droves to get in out of the cold they have lived in for a decade.
Personally, Asif Zardari badly needs the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), without which he will be hamstrung in getting at the many bank accounts and other assets stashed abroad. He is smart enough to know that if the Western media gets at him his present lifestyle will suffer as they uncover issues, which he would prefer remain hidden.
Mian Nawaz Sharif showed great presence of mind and political astuteness by heading straight for the Rawalpindi hospital where Ms Benazir was taken gravely wounded. Not only good for national amity, it was necessary to buff over the ethnic edges arising out of the assassination. Mian Sahib has recently been something of a surprise, along with a crop of a hair his political grey matter also seems to have increased.
The demise of Ms Benazir has made him the most popular politician in the country by default. Yet, his popularity in the Punjab does not translate into seats in other Provinces.
In his previous two terms as PM, he readily discarded mature political aides for closet Rasputins. Is he now capable of following good advice or, like Professor Stephen Leacock's immortal well-meaning hero, will he again jump on his horse and gallop off in all directions? The really street smart brother, Shahbaz Sharif, would be a more credible political compromise, but will Kulsoom Sharif and sons tolerate this?
There are signs that PML (N) could be ready to compromise "in the national interest" -- better late than never! How the Brothers Sharif will ever come to any reconciliation with Chowdhury Shujaat and Pervez Elahi is beyond comprehension.
For Pervez Elahi, these elections are a "do or die" exercise. In addition to development efforts in the Punjab, he has also stacked the deck for a favourable election result. With his interests coinciding with that of Pervez Musharraf, the intelligence agencies are working overtime for him. With the new leadership in the army openly averse to following the "Turkish Army" model, this support will dissipate, and could even come to a dead stop after the senior promotions/postings expected in March. He has a vested interest in early elections. Every day of delay diminishes Pervez Elahi's hold over the Punjab bureaucracy. Post-March he may well have only a couple of dozen MNAs/MPAs with him; our elected representatives are infamous for never worshipping the setting sun!
Whether elections are held early or later, the vote banks of MQM, ANP, Balochistan national parties, independents, etc will remain intact. Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Imran Khan must be brought back into the electoral process. They will have more than limited nuisance value if they are kept out in the cold. Knowing that their performance will not match their rhetoric, staying out may well be their tactical preference.
There are unmistakable signs that the Pakistan army wants out of the political process. This process is already on in a measured way, the most significant being the recall of all serving officers from civilian posts. If the army's hierarchy can distinguish between anti-state and anti-government, and get over its Afghanistan-fixation, it will avoid quite a number of unnecessary controversies.
When the military sets out to do something it is not equipped for, it is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, it has shown in Swat that when it sets out on its prime mission, it does it very well. The media has also to play its own part, by impartial reporting and objective analysis. Freedom requires responsibility, compare our media's good fortune with that of more than a 100 countries, most of them Muslim and/or third world! A self-governing "code of ethics" must be applied without any intervention by the government.
The final onus of responsibility still lies with Pervez Musharraf as the incumbent ruler. While his prime mission is to get the nation united in the "war against terrorism," he has to prepare the masses to cope with economic recession, and oil and food shortages. His suggestion of a non-political, non-controversial PM may be summarily rejected by the opposition; why not test their credibility before the masses by asking them to name a few persons from whom he can choose?
Our rulers owe this country a concerted effort to turn a situation tailor-made for confrontation and disaster into an opportunity for lasting prosperity. This is only possible through national compromise!
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