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Strategic rift among the 'coalition' in Iraq
Iraq, as well as the entire neighbouring region in the Middle East, today, is facing a serious and unstable situation. Disappointment and despair stalk the streets of Baghdad, Kirkuk, Basra, Gaza and several other cities. The efforts of the 'Coalition of the willing' to jump-start democracy and initiate democratic traditions do not appear to have taken root despite the enormous expenditure of more than one hundred billion US dollars. Inclusiveness and tolerance have crucially failed to surface, and this has led to impatience in the manner the war is being conducted in Iraq.
Some are pointing out that peace is not just the absence of conflict but also the absence of inner conflict. They are reiterating that the emerging sectarianism in Iraq is only underlining that eventual peace requires withdrawal of foreign presence from that country.
London and many other places in Britain are rife today with demonstrators loudly seeking the withdrawal of British troops from southern Iraq. The electronic media showed one carrying a sign with John Lenoon's stirring remarks from his immortal song 'Imagine' about peace- "Imagine all the people living life in peace. You may say I am a dreamer, but I am not the only one. I hope some day you will join us, and the world will live as one". Some others had quotations from United Nations General Assembly Resolution 55/282 of 7 September 2001 that decided to observe the International Day of Peace on 21 September each year. Another demonstrator carried a sign with an excerpt from former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan -- 'All those engaged in conflict should reconsider the wisdom of further violence'.
It is very clear that there is today a serious re-examination in Britain about its continued presence in Iraq. Analysts, political activists and some retired defence personnel have jumped onto a bandwagon and are now urging the new British Prime Minister to forget Iraq and think only of Afghanistan.
The initial period of political honeymoon for new Prime Minister Gordon Brown appears to be ending and senior military commanders are taking that opportunity to advise Brown to withdraw from Iraq at the earliest and take the fight to the Taliban in Afghanistan. While doing so, they are trying their best to portray such a step not as retreat but redeployment. This latter interpretation is being specially underscored so that the British government is not portrayed as having failed in facing its own 'Saigon moment'.
It is anticipated that very shortly the British will pull back from their last base located in Saddam's old summer palace (where about 500 British troops are camped and facing regular missile attacks) in the city of Basra in southern Iraq. The British Ministry of Defence is already keen to avoid any photograph of the last helicopter taking off from Saddam's old palace (which supposedly also houses intelligence agency personnel from other countries). Analysts have claimed that such an image would be too close to that of the last helicopter taking off from the American Embassy in Saigon in April 1975 -- an enduring symbol of US defeat.
Damage containment is already underway by British Authorities pointing out that unlike the case in Vietnam, the troops on the British helicopters will not be leaving Iraq -- they will just be pulling back to their base at the airport outside the city to await the final order to withdraw.
In the meantime, British Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, Chief of Defence Staff, has denied claims by certain US analysts that the British have been defeated in southern Iraq. The spin being put on the deteriorating situation has attempted to euphemistically portray British armed forces efforts as being directed 'to put the Iraqis back in control'. Such a view, according to Sarah Baxter and Michael Smith, is not consistent with US military assessment which has warned that British forces will have to fight their way out of Iraq in an 'ugly and embarrassing retreat' towards the southern Iraq port of Umm Qasr. Some are already calling it the 'Basra blunder'.
The British newspaper 'Independent on Sunday', known for its lack of support for the invasion of Iraq has now gone one step further. In a recent comment it has drawn the attention of Prime Minister Brown to his assurance at Camp David, USA, where he said that 'he would listen to the commanders on the ground in deciding whether British troops should remain in Iraq'. Many other commentators like this publication are now urging Brown to take a sober stock of reality.
These latest developments are providing fodder for peace activists within Britain and also the neo-liberals. They are all urging Brown to re-think. They feel that the present situation is a long way from the role envisioned for British troops during the 2003 invasion, when officers were told that their war aims were to bring democracy and stability to Iraq.
Mr Brown is expected to report on the current situation in Iraq to the British Parliament in October. In the meantime, the British Conservative right, due to influence of the ultra conservatives within the US Administration (headed by Vice President Dick Cheney), is pointing to Brown's close advisers that Britain should 'uphold the standards which the world has come to expect from the British army in the most demanding circumstances.'
It is quite clear that Gordon Brown will be making his final decision about troop withdrawal after US General David Petraeus delivers his report to the US Congress in September on the progress of America's 'troop surge' strategy. In the meantime, serious efforts will obviously be undertaken to contain the deteriorating situation.
Clearly, the US Administration is less than happy with the evolving situation in the southern front in Iraq. They feel that absence of a credible British presence will certainly impact on ensuring security of its vital supply line from Kuwait. Consequently, there is now a US strategic view that British depletion will have to be supplemented with escalation of US presence in the southern areas of Iraq.
Mr Brown, in keeping with his cautious nature will, in all likelihood, take wider concerns into account before he reaches a decision that has political as well as military implications. He knows that he has a tough six months ahead. At the time of inheriting his mantle, his party was trailing the Conservative Party. That has slightly changed in the last few weeks. Labour is again in the lead.
Brown today is faced with a dilemma -- to withdraw as soon as possible out of Iraq and lose political support of President Bush or stay till it is clear that Bush is a truly lame duck President. He also knows that undue delay and more British bodies coming back from Iraq will affect his chances in the next election.
The only way out for Gordon Brown seems to be to wait for General Petraeus presenting a mixed report and pleading for more time for the US surge strategy to work. If this happens, and the number of US fatalities continues to grow, there will be additional pressure on the US Administration (from the embattled Republicans) to reduce their presence in Iraq. I believe that such a situation will enable the British Prime Minister to spell out plans for a British withdrawal. This scenario would also permit the Prime Minister to make public sometime in November or December, before Christmas, his decision to scale down British presence. It will also depend on when Brown wants to call the next election.
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