As I See It
A trilogy of crisis
WHILE the situation in Pakistan, circa 2008, is not quite comparable with the situation in 1971, those who rule Pakistan today as well as those who aspire to rule tomorrow must keep in mind the consequences of obdurate refusal to compromise even when catastrophe stares us in our faces. Most of our problems in 1971 were domestic and self-created, India took geo-political advantage by militarily force-multiplying the self-destruction process.
The domestic political crisis of today is caught in the crossfire of geo-political upheaval in the region as well as impending world recession, these will deepen the dimensions of our internal sorrows. Above all, the Pakistan army, the prime guarantor of our integrity and sovereignty, needs to come to terms with its national identity and adjust/reconcile itself to its role thereof.
Economically speaking our statistics are great, but they do not have solid foundations. Self-sufficient in food, the country is caught up in artificially created severe shortages. Those who gave permission to export wheat on the strength of what they called "a bumper crop" are guilty of economic treason. Will they be brought to task? And what about those taking advantage of high wheat and flour prices in Afghanistan and India to hoard and/or to smuggle? Further export of any petroleum products to Afghanistan must be restricted. To meet domestic requirements we should plan for likely oil shortages in the coming months.
Are we setting aside funds to subsidise electricity charges? Why not cut down on the import of a wide range of luxury items like cars, air-conditioners, TV sets, refrigerators etc., and scale back on leases thereof on easy terms and conditions being offered by commercial banks and other financial institutions? The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has moved to control inflation, but how do we cushion ourselves against economic interdependencies with the developed world? Stock market manipulations resemble a "fixed" roulette table in a large casino.
Thorough forensic investigation, by competent foreign agencies, of the scams should target the fatcats, in one case quite literally, who must be made to sweat out the billions plundered on the blood and tears of their poor fellow countrymen, so beggared they are not even able to afford potable drinking water. Put a dozen or so on the Exit Control List (ECL) immediately. If the SECP does not align itself to the hunters, they will be counted among the accessories to white-collar crime.
Instead of economic largesse (the famous trickle-down economics) reaching the poor, the suffering masses will soon be flooded with more poverty and more misery. We do not lack material resources, we lack mature judgment, sound decision-making and good governance.
On the political front, even if this caretaker government were to suddenly discover a conscience and have a free, fair and transparent election on February 18, no one is ever going to accept it, not even those who "win" the elections. Almost everyone is going to yell "foul." If the election is used as a platform for civil disobedience, we will be lucky to get far past polling midday on February 18. Many in power and out of power have a vested interest in blurring the election results. The protests will be aggravated and force-multiplied by the severe economic downturn, oil and food shortages, unemployment, and personal/commercial bankruptcies as banks/leasing companies try to collect. The long hot summer aggravated by severe electricity shortages, particularly in the city of Karachi, is a sure recipe for economic downturn and widespread civil disturbances thereof. The social upheaval will make the uprising of have-nots of December 27 look like a picnic.
On the geo-political front, the situation in Afghanistan is going from bad to worse, Hamid Karzai's penchant for blaming Pakistan for his own shortcomings and failures is wearing thin. The US strategy needs re-evaluation, modeled perhaps on the US Marines' success in Anbar Province in Iraq. Iran is still in the crosshairs of US neo-cons, Israel's options remaining a wild card in engulfing the region in a catastrophe. India, overtly at least, is laying off Pakistan, even though one suspects its initiatives in Afghanistan as being Pakistan-specific. Interesting that Russia's approach towards Pakistan seems much softer; is it because of China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) finding its place in the sun as a bloc of growing consequence?
In the prevailing internal and external circumstances, the country badly needs a national government of non-controversial, non-political figures of consequence. National interest makes it incumbent upon the opposition politicians to name neutral persons of credibility and competence, ones acceptable to the president. The Election Commission (EC) has to be re-constituted, public perception about its credibility is less than zero. While the president provides continuity, he must step away from the electoral process and remain above the fray. The ex-servicemen who signed a declaration asking Pervez Musharraf to quit could have first given him the benefit of a hearing in private; that they chose not to is unfortunate, but it is their right to protest. These men of integrity have given service to the nation with pride and honour and cannot be dismissed out of hand, they represent what can be called the "military intelligentsia."
The army is caught in the middle, between loyalty to their supreme commander and loyalty to the state, the no-win position being how to reconcile one with the other without betraying either. They must also learn to differentiate between what is anti-state and what is anti-government. After years of absorbing mud and muck thrown by all and sundry, change seems to be on the way. The army has performed brilliantly in Swat in contrast to the mess in Fata. MI's primary mission is in Wana and out of the way places like that, not hobnobbing and conspiring in Islamabad and the provincial capitals. Army officials in MI or ISI (or anywhere else) have no business involving themselves with political offices or politicians. Eyes are fixed on the possible postings/sending home of one (or maybe two) intelligence bosses; that will be the marker that Kayani means business!
Only drastic measures will change the public perception and restore the prestige and credibility of the uniform. The politicians presently extolling Kayani's virtues to high heavens distributed sweets when his predecessor, Pervez Musharraf, assumed power and was greeted as God's gift to mankind. Politics is a realm where even angels fear to tread.
Friends of Musharraf are divided between those who want him to continue in office (or make a graceful exit) with dignity, and those who have a vested (and desperate) interest in his staying in power. Some will want him to do the right thing, those in proximity to him enjoying the gravy train will want him to do anything, right or wrong, for their own selfish purpose, anything to cling onto power. Musharraf's state is akin to the loneliness of the long-distance runner, only he knows how to pace himself, and when to come to a stop.
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